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I mean we did have real fraud in 2020. It’s just people ignore the obvious frauds.
The expanse of mass-mail in voting is considered fraud by historical Democratic principals. Trump wins in a landslide without that.
At this point it is beyond proven that the FBI interfered with social media with regards to the Hunter Biden laptop. They knew it was real the entire time. The CIA helped cover that up.
These things aren’t conspiracies. They are proven and changed the election.
I don’t know why we are doing both-sides here.
Now I agree the right has gone too far. I know people who never rational think thru issues anymore and just assume they are being lied to.
I disagree. At worst, by weakening the secret ballot, it makes more opportunities for fraud. That’s different.
Regardless, to get from there to “Trump wins in a landslide,” you have to have a chain of beliefs.
Sure, #1 seems obviously true. But proponents have consistently failed to bring evidence for #2 or #3. Where are the legions of dead or duplicate voters? The confessions of Democrat strongmen who went door to door coercing Biden votes? The sob stories from would-have-been Trump voters?
If the Democrats successfully weaponized MMIV, there should be more evidence. Same goes for Trump’s hypothetical lead. Polling (then or now) doesn’t suggest that he has massive support. Either there is a powerful conspiracy hiding and weakening the evidence, or it doesn’t really exist.
The average voter hasn’t committed fraud. He also knows that his neighbors and teammates haven’t committed fraud, haven’t talked about the option, haven’t been visited by team officials in the dead of night. He correctly concludes that his team is not benefiting from fraud. He fails to extend this conclusion to everyone else.
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And if the expanse of mass mail-in voting had caused him to win in a landslide, you'd be saying the election was illegitimate and stolen from Biden, yes?
I agree, and this was an outrage, and I said so repeatedly at the time and since. But this doesn't prove that the election was fraudulent - as pointed out by @2rafa, if media propaganda manipulating people to vote a particular way makes an election illegitimate, then every election since the invention of democracy was illegitimate. We'll never know the counterfactual where the Hunter Biden laptop story is allowed to freely circulate on social media - it might have swung the election, it might not. There are obvious parallels with Russiagate truthers constantly asserting that Trump only won because of sketchy Facebook ads from Russian accounts!!! targeting swing voters, something something Cambridge Analytica.
What's this un-fraud of the gaps(analogous to god of the gaps)?
I don't get it
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“And if the expanse of mass mail-in voting had caused him to win in a landslide, you'd be saying the election was illegitimate and stolen from Biden, yes”
“There are obvious parallels with Russiagate truthers constantly asserting that Trump only won because of sketchy Facebook ads from Russian accounts!!! targeting swing voters, something something Cambridge Analytica.“
This is also different because it’s external versus internal. It’s different when Russia plays some games we don’t have the tools to prevent and our own CIA decides to back candidate X. The CIA interfering in an election is bad. Especially when they are spreading known false information. They have done this during war times but during an election is different.
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In what possible sense? Oregon has had vote-by-mail for a while now, I think it's hardly sensible to claim that all elections in Oregon are fraudulent by any sensible principle.
Now sure, maybe mail-in voting could induce or enable fraud. But you seem to be suggesting that the means of voting is itself fraudulent, even if the result is generally reflective of the indicated preference of valid and eligible voters.
Oregon didn't expand mail-in voting. The fact that they've done it for years doesn't mean every other state in the union can implement the same voting methods in months.
At least address what's being said before accusing people of a gish gallop.
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It's not (inherently) fraudulent in Oregon -- it was fraudulent in 2020 in the states where it was banned by statute and 'worked around' by various illegal policies implemented by Democrat-aligned administrators without going through the proper legislative process. (eg. Wisconsin (IIRC?) with their expansion of 'indefinitely confined')
Jesus, the
Gish Gallopdistributed Motte & Bailey of rotating arguments. First it was inherently fraudulent[1]. Then it was fraudulent-by-method-of-adoption[2]. Then it there-exists-fraud-in-fact via stuffed ballots or water leaks[3].In any event, do you think the result in Wisconsin numerically reflect the intended desire of the eligible voters?
I'm not responsible for whatever other arguments people are making -- mine is true.
If by 'eligible voters' you mean 'the ones that voted in accordance with State law', then no, probably not. If you mean something else, you should be working towards legislative reform to make it easier for people to (legally) vote -- as in Oregon I suppose.
For the sake of reducing confusion, if you’re replying to their thread, it helps to distinguish.
And by eligible voters, I mean those which are entitled and not otherwise forbidden to vote.
I think it's quite obvious that opinions I state in a thread are mine and not somebody else's -- do I need to add a disclaimer?
If an otherwise eligible voter submits his ballot in the form of a homemade crayon-drawing, it is not a legal ballot and should not be counted. Same goes for mailins, in jurisdictions where the legislature has not passed a law allowing them and defining the procedures for their acceptance.
I agree, they should not be counted, perhaps allowing for some amount of reliance of voters on reasonable expectations. Obviously no voter should expect that a homemade ballot counts.
But it would still be true that the complaint against them would be “this is not procedurally appropriate” and not “this is not an accurate rendition of voter intent” or “this is fraudulent”. Those have specific meanings.
The fraudulent part was when Democratically-aligned bureaucrats conspired to have the votes (which happened to be disproportionately Democratic) cast & counted.
The ballots were illegal, which the people taking the votes didn't like -- so they counted them anyways.
How is "counts invalid ballots" not central "election fraud"? (particularly when that act favours the counters' preferred candidate)
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That’s not a Gish gallop.
At worst, jkf is defending a different position than sliders. Call it sanewashing, or maybe distributed motte-and-bailey?
Also, I'll add, that JKF is defending a different position that sliders, but he could also clarify it because he's responding to a thread of comments relating to sliders.
For example, if he is advancing fraudulent-by-method-of-adoption[2] then he could also write "VBM is legitimate when properly adopted but not when adopted via procedurally-invalid means, hence I believe in Wisconsin it is illegitimate because ".
That would probably elicit a very different response. It would also clarify what is the crux of JKFs argument.
[ And if JKF believes that VBM is illegitimate even when adopted via procedurally-proper means, then clarify that would also be helpful! I don't mean to say he can only adopt the position above. ]
Yeah, I think your question about Wisconsin is a good way to clarify.
I put my own objection to sliders here. “Fraud was plausible” is very easy to defend. “Fraud changed the result,” not so much.
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That is fair. I accept the correction and have edited it.
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I live in Washington; we've had universal vote-by-mail for a while now too.
I don't know if all our elections are fraudulent. They're doing a lot of good things to secure them, but there're still inherent gaps. And I'm very uncomfortable about that.
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Secret ballot principles are violated. It’s been when discussed here. Every organization that defines what makes a good Democracy before 2020 said mail-in ballots had issues. After 2020 it’s all good.
We probably do have the technology today to make mail-in voting fine. You could have an IPhone do facial ID and watch you vote in secret.
That is a tendentious appeal to consensus that doesn't exist. Oregon has been doing vote-by-mail since 1996.
FYI, I think my comment is what @sliders1234 is referring to when he says that it's been discussed here before. In that comment, I survey international pro-democracy organizations which set out what it means for an election to be fair and free. It is clear that a consensus did exist across these organizations. That some locations have been bucking that consensus and that some groups have now turned entirely against that consensus does not mean that the consensus did not exist.
The consensus that you point to is for a different topic than the one you are claiming.
You are trying to manufacture a consensus against VBM by pointing to universal support for the notion of secret ballots. The core of the disagreement is whether VBM (especially optional-VBM where anyone that wishes can go in person if they choose!) is sufficiently protective of the right to a secret ballot.
If anything, the point that one can derive from this is that mandating VBM is not good policy. On that, sure, we can easily agree.
Those cites were pretty clear that the only consistent way to ensure the secret ballot and voter faith in such is in-person voting, with only one person being allowed in the voter booth at a time. They explicitly call out weaknesses of VBM in these terms. I am manufacturing nothing. It's there, in black and white, preserved by the beauty of the internet.
You can't see that a bunch of consensus in favor of the secret ballot is not a consensus against VBM unless one also believes a separate fact about it?
Maybe it's best to return to pragmatics. I got my ballot in the mail, I filled it out at home where no one was here. I sealed it and dropped it off personally at a drop box inside the police station. I am totally satisfied in the secrecy of this ballot, and I don't even think that going in person (which was a choice I could have made) would have further protected it.
In terms of attack modeling, if the police and the registrar are in on the scheme, then neither method would have protected it.
One that the consensus explicitly states.
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It's not only about whether you are satisfied with secrecy of your voting. It's also about whether other voters are satisfied that your vote was not coerced. What evidence other than your own testimony could you offer?
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Ok then I assume you don’t believe the secret ballot is important to free and fair elections.
No issue if spouses pressure their partners or children fill out ballots for grandparents with dementia.
Sure perhaps saying it was considered the standard pre-2020 is an appeal to consensus, but I agree with the logic the experts were using in before 2020.
Sometimes I think it’s fine to reference prior work and assume people have familiarity with it. You don’t need to rewrite every argument.
Bruh, this idiotic “so I guess (a bunch of crazy shit I don’t believe)” is tiresome.
Yes I believe in the secret ballot. I do not believe that the option to do mail in seriously erodes that.
Less antagonism. You've been warned about this repeatedly. Next time is going to catch you a ban.
I've asked at least 5 times in this thread for folks not to reply to a post saying X with "oh so you believe Y and Z and beat your wife". That seems like the minimal amount of non-antagonism required as well.
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And if we defund the police. Crime won’t skyrocket. If we get rid of the SEC - no one will insider trade. If the MLB isn’t enforcing bans on steroids then even those who don’t want to do steroids will (like Barry Bonds a later user) because the players getting ahead are cheating. Maybe I just know more people who are willing to cheat that if you remove the enforcement preventing cheating that people will cheat.
If you remove the enforcement even if society is 99.5% trustworthy those who abuse the commons are going to rise in power.
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I’m going to jump in to ask, why?
I agree that VBM by itself doesn’t really enable classic vote-buying: if someone offers you money to vote a certain way, sure the buyer can verify your ballot before it goes in the envelope prior to handing over the “wages”, but you can easily get another ballot (unbeknownst to the vote-buyer), vote however you want, and invalidate the previous ballot.
But the examples given above (spouse pressuring spouse, filling out ballots for non compos mentis elderly relatives) seem to be much easier to pull off when mass VBM is the norm. To belabor the point re: the spouse example, if you live with someone, you presumably have access to their mail and can see whether they have received another VBM ballot with which to try and evade your spousal pressure to vote a certain way.
Not to mention, “ballot harvesting” seems vulnerable to unscrupulous harvesters steaming open the envelopes, changing the ballots that don’t vote for the right candidate (e.g. by filling in all the bubbles, so the ballot gets rejected) and then re-sealing the envelope.
Those are all valid points!
I agree that there is the possibility of fraud in VBM, but the original bombastic claim was that VBM is itself intrinsically fraudulent:
There is a huge difference your nuanced points and this blanket statement.
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