domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com
NunoSempere
3hr ago
Here is a dump of some stuff I'm keeping track of; happy to get thoughts on any of it. Warning that these can look pretty worrying when joined together, but stuff of similar severity happens about every week. The context for these is that I'm trying to anticipate crisis that could spiral out of hand, and I have alerts and software that processes large amounts of news and highlights some of the more worrying ones.
A United Nations statement by the UK https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-increased-military-cooperation-between-russia-iran-and-dprk-poses-an-unacceptable-threat-to-global-security-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-cou
Pagers exploded, killing many Hezbollah terrorists https://x.com/HilzFuld/status/1836051026673119719 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/17/dozens-of-hezbollah-members-wounded-after-pagers-explode-in-lebanon Here are some expert opinions: https://freebeacon.com/national-security/what-experts-make-of-israels-ingenious-hezbollah-pager-attack/
Israel has been re-establishing deterrence since it was badly undermined last Oct. 7. Like the recent assassinations in Lebanon and Iran, and Israel’s attack on some Iranian air defense sites in April, this attack is meant to remind Hezbollah of Israel’s technical sophistication and its willpower. Israel is trying to make it clear to Hezbollah and Iran that it does not fear escalation. Hezbollah will respond, but this attack will make them realize they are more vulnerable than they think
Initially 2k, now up to 4k. https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836097128747151422 Images: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836061232433930309 Iranian ambassador to Lebanon also injured Here is a video in a hospital: https://x.com/WachtelDan/status/1836038754756145515
WhiteHouse meeting on mpox https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/16/readout-of-white-house-convening-on-mpox/ https://www.state.gov/digital-press-briefing-u-s-government-support-to-the-global-response-to-mpox/
Big google could hack https://www.techradar.com/pro/security/researchers-uncover-rce-exploit-in-google-cloud-millions-of-servers-at-risk https://www.tenable.com/blog/cloudimposer-executing-code-on-millions-of-google-servers-with-a-single-malicious-package
https://www.thepoultrysite.com/news/2024/09/czech-republic-reports-avian-influenza-outbreak H5N1 outbreak in the Czech republic. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-republic-reported-bird-flu-outbreak-farm-woah-says-2024-09-16/
Reuters on secret service https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-apparent-trump-assassination-attempt-highlights-secret-service-strains-2024-09-17/
Putin to increase size of Russian army https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-russian-army-grow-by-180000-soldiers-become-15-million-strong-2024-09-16/
In a decree published on the Kremlin's website, Putin ordered the overall size of the armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million people, of which he said 1.5 million should be active servicemen.
Speculations about how they did this https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836113607572230358
WHO flags limited mpox testing in epicenter DRC https://www.voanews.com/a/who-flags-limited-mpox-testing-in-epicenter-drc-/7784829.html suggests that actual number of cases is higher
Israel says missile from Yemen fell in central Israel https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-army-says-missile-yemen-052624033.html
First conviction under Hong Kong's new national security law for wearing "seditious" T-shirt https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/first-conviction-under-hong-kongs-new-national-security-law-wearing-seditious-t-2024-09-16/
Iran hanged Baloch liberation group leader https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2010/06/20/iran-executes-jundullah-founder-abdul-malik-rigi/
Follow up attacks with walkietalkies https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/lebanon-pagers-explode-hezbollah-israel-09-18-24-intl-hnk/index.html
Militants in India's Kashmir are proffessionalizing https://tribune.com.pk/story/2497064/iiojk-intensified-militancy-and-the-bewildered-indian-army
UNICEF aiming to fundraise 58M https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/unicef-global-mpox-preparedness-and-response-children-september-2024-february-2025 salhattab@unicef.org
North Korea test-fired ballistic missiles in latest military display, neighbors say https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-ballistic-missile-tensions-af75c31d24dc53b0ae0db7260458563b
Meta and Youtube ban Russia Today https://countercurrents.org/2024/09/meta-platforms-and-youtube-ban-rt-worldwide/
Gavi to buy 500,000 mpox vaccine doses from Bavarian Nordic https://www.yahoo.com/news/gavi-buy-500-000-mpox-084946643.html
More details on the exploding pagers https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah.html
Goodguy
3hr ago
I am a white man, so I can imagine it, since white men have been dehumanized for years now by various people.
iprayiam3
4hr ago
Other times, I am frustrated by her lack of brutal drive to self improvement. ... Shes objectively achieved enough that her intelligence is not up for question, but other times Im dissastisfied with the lack of sharp off the cuff retorts that ive come to expect from my male friends.
Gross. This isn't real. You don't want a wife who's like one your your guy friends. You don't want your wife to be a sarcastic, grindsetting bro.
As i read this, I know I sound like a manic pixie dream boy. But, the brain wants what it wants.
I wanted a manic pixie dream girl, the girl I married isn't anything like that, I had real axiety briefly while dating her about that, I made the best decision in the world.
Logistically, we're very long distance and will last another year, which is the biggest issue.
This is the only objection you've raised that is legit. Also, could a source of you lack of investment be related to a lack of real chemical interaction?
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
4hr ago
Makes sense, why would you want a flood of competitors to lower your wages?
Supah_Schmendrick
4hr ago
I have no idea if it would sell, but that description reads exactly like a book I would snap up in a heartbeat from a second-hand book shop, read until the spine broke, and then madly evangelize to all my friends to the point of exasperation.
On the other hand, you've been around the motte and its predecessors to know that I'm not exactly the median reading public, so ymmv.
Happy to be of any assistance I can, even if it's just cheerleading, and eventually buying a copy of whatever you produce.
Tacherus
4hr ago
That’s what I thought at first but it seems like they’ve got the same background as the members. How do you account for the split between leadership and members?
Tacherus
4hr ago
Lying about “prospects” seems pretty hard to prove because they’re predictions. And founders definitely tend to be a little crazy.
SSCReader
4hr ago
I think those are a proportionally negligible as to the total number of deaths that occur annually, though.
Indeed, but as we are talking Thanos snapping, we can handle the small issues and the big ones too. No additional cost. Of course there are better ways than snapping away the guns as we mentioned above, just fix the aggressive people, then nobody really has much of a need for firearms, so we can get rid of those to stop accidents and the like. We can even stop animals being aggressive to humans as well.
SSCReader
4hr ago
Right, but as we are Thanos snapping we might as well deal with the small stuff too, there is no extra cost to it.
Ken0sis
4hr ago
Yeah, it surprises a lot of people, but Russia has had really successful longstanding agreements with the US and Norway dating back well into the Soviet era. Generally speaking, Russia's willing to align with its neighbors against more exploitative third parties (historically Poland and Japan, but possibly China in the future).
SteveKirk
4hr ago
Something only just occurred to me about that. If it's a crime to make an agreement with a bank about the value of your property as collateral, how is it not a crime to straight up lie about the prospects of a startup?
MaximumCuddles
4hr ago
Quick note; I think using the fights & romances as sort of a zig-zag central beam of the narrative would be quite compelling, they seem even more central to your character than the more standard adventure fare of your far-flung career.
The whole fighter / lover tension seems to be wrought throughout it.
But then again I’m a military brat and third culture kid so that other stuff is more normal to me. Maybe that’s a plus; conflict and love are more relatable to a wider variety of people.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
4hr ago
Russian fisheries practices have generally leaned towards conservation and effective management of existing stocks
Interesting. Perhaps this is bigoted of me but my general impression of Russian institutions would have led me to assume they'd take a far more recklessly extractive approach. Glad to hear that's not the case.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4hr ago
Can you imagine being a Haitian in Springfield right now?
It must be horrible. They should be given a new residence in Martha's Vineyard, where they will not have to suffer such vile bigotry.
ABigGuy4U
4hr ago
I definitely remember seeing a few news stories of people having their jaws blown off by defective vaporizers.
Didn't have time to do this earlier. Here's a spreadsheet (I tested it from a few browsers - it should be persistent) with the data from table 7.2-T03 (page 91) of the report ("Non-German suspects by nationalities – total offences excluding offences against foreigners’ law"), and table 12521-0005 from the German statistics office (for total population sizes for 2020).
Might do the same with the data from your study, if it has this level of detail.
P.S.: Here's a screenshot in case the spreadsheet gets binned.
Jesweez
5hr ago
We’ll see, hopefully not.
But, I don’t think a person has to be murdered to have been dehumanized either.
Can you imagine being a Haitian in Springfield right now?
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
Thermals don’t pick up bugs. Plant radishes around your cabbage and run chickens through.
jeroboam
5hr ago
I predict that zero Haitians in Springfield will be murdered by someone who is angry about pets.
faceh
5hr ago
won't catch people who snap and go on a spree,
I think those are a proportionally negligible as to the total number of deaths that occur annually, though.
Like, a couple hundred even in the worst years, in the U.S.
Stopping those would probably require a massive surveillance state which would cost billions annually and would, like with gun confiscations, oppress 'normal' citizens. To say nothing of the potential for abuses.
The other way to stop those is to arm responsible citizens who can stop them as they happen
I dunno, seems like aggressively arresting and locking up the most violent citizens would also tip the balance in favor of letting the remaining citizens remain armed, making the chances of an armed citizen being able to stop a random spree killer a bit higher.
What really chafes me is that all discussion is sucked into the gun control debate so we can't have a decent discussion about other policy approaches.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
He’s using colourful nicknames, I believe- wedgies are probably wedge tailed eagles, for example.
jeroboam
5hr ago
Unsurprisingly, the FBI has nerfed its crime data under Biden making it much harder to get useful information. So the epistemological situation is only getting worse.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
The carolina parakeet. The only parrot species native to the USA.
There are native parrots on the Rio grande.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
I am sure that there are some wild species which the Romans found so tasty that they ate them to extinction, but 2000 years on, hardly anyone ever complains about not being able to eat them.
Ironically, the canonical example of a species the Romans ate to extinction is silphium, which people regularly complain about being extinct- because the Romans thought it was an effective birth control. Even if Roman medical knowledge was 100% accurate for once, how to prepare it as a contraceptive would almost certainly have been suppressed by Christianity(early Christian writers hated birth control, and it’s generally agreed that whatever efficacy silphium had it was as some sort of preparation).
But there you have it.
I disagree with you. This editorial is very bad, and Chuck Todd should feel bad for writing it.
This isn't new. Herbert Hoover's magisterially-dyspeptic magnum opus goes into microscopic detail about all the ways various FDR-administration officials and allied journalists lied and slanted the truth to manage and manipulate public opinion during the depression, New Deal period, and WWII, and the number of people who remember or care today round to zero. Heck, even the "really famous" examples like the NYT lying about the Holodomor in Ukraine, or rabidly defending the Lindsay administration in NYC at the time, then excoriating it in Lindsay's obituary, are just cocktail-party trivia and not seriously internalized lessons.
How do you get "incrementalism" from "the country is politically-divided"? It really smacks of "we just need to make sure we boil the frog slowly so it doesn't jump out." No instinct towards actual compromise or even honest open conflict; just dishonest slow-rolling and gaslighting about ultimate endgames until it's too late and the fait accompli can be imposed on a prostrate foe. Of course, this strategy also has the side-effect of not being at all concerned with actual quality of governance in the mean-time...if you're suffering from a gushing stab wound, incremental care, one bandaid at a time, won't stop you from bleeding out even if stitches or cauterization would really hurt in the short-term.
Our political information ecosystem is primarily geared towards rationalizing already-extant beliefs. That's how you get in people's customized algorithms - feeding them plausible-sounding affirmation of things they already believe. It's not a question of "nuance" or "incrementalism" - what do those even mean in the context of journalism? That you shouldn't report facts if it looks like they lead to an "unnuanced" conclusion or one that is a radical departure from current consensus? And why do we think that our information delivery system should be characterized by the same qualities as policymaking in the first place? To even ask the question betrays the degree to which unbiased investigation has been subordinated to ideological preference.
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