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domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com

Here is a dump of some stuff I'm keeping track of; happy to get thoughts on any of it. Warning that these can look pretty worrying when joined together, but stuff of similar severity happens about every week. The context for these is that I'm trying to anticipate crisis that could spiral out of hand, and I have alerts and software that processes large amounts of news and highlights some of the more worrying ones.

A United Nations statement by the UK https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-increased-military-cooperation-between-russia-iran-and-dprk-poses-an-unacceptable-threat-to-global-security-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-cou

Pagers exploded, killing many Hezbollah terrorists https://x.com/HilzFuld/status/1836051026673119719 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/17/dozens-of-hezbollah-members-wounded-after-pagers-explode-in-lebanon Here are some expert opinions: https://freebeacon.com/national-security/what-experts-make-of-israels-ingenious-hezbollah-pager-attack/

Israel has been re-establishing deterrence since it was badly undermined last Oct. 7. Like the recent assassinations in Lebanon and Iran, and Israel’s attack on some Iranian air defense sites in April, this attack is meant to remind Hezbollah of Israel’s technical sophistication and its willpower. Israel is trying to make it clear to Hezbollah and Iran that it does not fear escalation. Hezbollah will respond, but this attack will make them realize they are more vulnerable than they think

Initially 2k, now up to 4k. https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836097128747151422 Images: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836061232433930309 Iranian ambassador to Lebanon also injured Here is a video in a hospital: https://x.com/WachtelDan/status/1836038754756145515

WhiteHouse meeting on mpox https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/16/readout-of-white-house-convening-on-mpox/ https://www.state.gov/digital-press-briefing-u-s-government-support-to-the-global-response-to-mpox/

Big google could hack https://www.techradar.com/pro/security/researchers-uncover-rce-exploit-in-google-cloud-millions-of-servers-at-risk https://www.tenable.com/blog/cloudimposer-executing-code-on-millions-of-google-servers-with-a-single-malicious-package

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-president-hijab-women-morality-police-b2613978.html

https://www.thepoultrysite.com/news/2024/09/czech-republic-reports-avian-influenza-outbreak H5N1 outbreak in the Czech republic. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-republic-reported-bird-flu-outbreak-farm-woah-says-2024-09-16/

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/houthi-official-says-us-offered-recognize-sanaa-government-us-official-denies-2024-09-16/

Reuters on secret service https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-apparent-trump-assassination-attempt-highlights-secret-service-strains-2024-09-17/

Putin to increase size of Russian army https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-russian-army-grow-by-180000-soldiers-become-15-million-strong-2024-09-16/

In a decree published on the Kremlin's website, Putin ordered the overall size of the armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million people, of which he said 1.5 million should be active servicemen.

Speculations about how they did this https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836113607572230358

WHO flags limited mpox testing in epicenter DRC https://www.voanews.com/a/who-flags-limited-mpox-testing-in-epicenter-drc-/7784829.html suggests that actual number of cases is higher

Israel says missile from Yemen fell in central Israel https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-army-says-missile-yemen-052624033.html

First conviction under Hong Kong's new national security law for wearing "seditious" T-shirt https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/first-conviction-under-hong-kongs-new-national-security-law-wearing-seditious-t-2024-09-16/

Iran hanged Baloch liberation group leader https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2010/06/20/iran-executes-jundullah-founder-abdul-malik-rigi/

Follow up attacks with walkietalkies https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/lebanon-pagers-explode-hezbollah-israel-09-18-24-intl-hnk/index.html

Militants in India's Kashmir are proffessionalizing https://tribune.com.pk/story/2497064/iiojk-intensified-militancy-and-the-bewildered-indian-army

UNICEF aiming to fundraise 58M https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/unicef-global-mpox-preparedness-and-response-children-september-2024-february-2025 salhattab@unicef.org

North Korea test-fired ballistic missiles in latest military display, neighbors say https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-ballistic-missile-tensions-af75c31d24dc53b0ae0db7260458563b

Meta and Youtube ban Russia Today https://countercurrents.org/2024/09/meta-platforms-and-youtube-ban-rt-worldwide/

Gavi to buy 500,000 mpox vaccine doses from Bavarian Nordic https://www.yahoo.com/news/gavi-buy-500-000-mpox-084946643.html

More details on the exploding pagers https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah.html

I am a white man, so I can imagine it, since white men have been dehumanized for years now by various people.

Other times, I am frustrated by her lack of brutal drive to self improvement. ... Shes objectively achieved enough that her intelligence is not up for question, but other times Im dissastisfied with the lack of sharp off the cuff retorts that ive come to expect from my male friends.

Gross. This isn't real. You don't want a wife who's like one your your guy friends. You don't want your wife to be a sarcastic, grindsetting bro.

As i read this, I know I sound like a manic pixie dream boy. But, the brain wants what it wants.

I wanted a manic pixie dream girl, the girl I married isn't anything like that, I had real axiety briefly while dating her about that, I made the best decision in the world.

Logistically, we're very long distance and will last another year, which is the biggest issue.

This is the only objection you've raised that is legit. Also, could a source of you lack of investment be related to a lack of real chemical interaction?

Makes sense, why would you want a flood of competitors to lower your wages?

I have no idea if it would sell, but that description reads exactly like a book I would snap up in a heartbeat from a second-hand book shop, read until the spine broke, and then madly evangelize to all my friends to the point of exasperation.

On the other hand, you've been around the motte and its predecessors to know that I'm not exactly the median reading public, so ymmv.

Happy to be of any assistance I can, even if it's just cheerleading, and eventually buying a copy of whatever you produce.

That’s what I thought at first but it seems like they’ve got the same background as the members. How do you account for the split between leadership and members?

Lying about “prospects” seems pretty hard to prove because they’re predictions. And founders definitely tend to be a little crazy.

I think those are a proportionally negligible as to the total number of deaths that occur annually, though.

Indeed, but as we are talking Thanos snapping, we can handle the small issues and the big ones too. No additional cost. Of course there are better ways than snapping away the guns as we mentioned above, just fix the aggressive people, then nobody really has much of a need for firearms, so we can get rid of those to stop accidents and the like. We can even stop animals being aggressive to humans as well.

Right, but as we are Thanos snapping we might as well deal with the small stuff too, there is no extra cost to it.

Yeah, it surprises a lot of people, but Russia has had really successful longstanding agreements with the US and Norway dating back well into the Soviet era. Generally speaking, Russia's willing to align with its neighbors against more exploitative third parties (historically Poland and Japan, but possibly China in the future).

Something only just occurred to me about that. If it's a crime to make an agreement with a bank about the value of your property as collateral, how is it not a crime to straight up lie about the prospects of a startup?

Quick note; I think using the fights & romances as sort of a zig-zag central beam of the narrative would be quite compelling, they seem even more central to your character than the more standard adventure fare of your far-flung career.

The whole fighter / lover tension seems to be wrought throughout it.

But then again I’m a military brat and third culture kid so that other stuff is more normal to me. Maybe that’s a plus; conflict and love are more relatable to a wider variety of people.

Russian fisheries practices have generally leaned towards conservation and effective management of existing stocks

Interesting. Perhaps this is bigoted of me but my general impression of Russian institutions would have led me to assume they'd take a far more recklessly extractive approach. Glad to hear that's not the case.

Can you imagine being a Haitian in Springfield right now?

It must be horrible. They should be given a new residence in Martha's Vineyard, where they will not have to suffer such vile bigotry.

I definitely remember seeing a few news stories of people having their jaws blown off by defective vaporizers.

Didn't have time to do this earlier. Here's a spreadsheet (I tested it from a few browsers - it should be persistent) with the data from table 7.2-T03 (page 91) of the report ("Non-German suspects by nationalities – total offences excluding offences against foreigners’ law"), and table 12521-0005 from the German statistics office (for total population sizes for 2020).

Might do the same with the data from your study, if it has this level of detail.

P.S.: Here's a screenshot in case the spreadsheet gets binned.

https://www.themotte.org//images/17267681316119363.webp

We’ll see, hopefully not.

But, I don’t think a person has to be murdered to have been dehumanized either.

Can you imagine being a Haitian in Springfield right now?

Thermals don’t pick up bugs. Plant radishes around your cabbage and run chickens through.

I predict that zero Haitians in Springfield will be murdered by someone who is angry about pets.

won't catch people who snap and go on a spree,

I think those are a proportionally negligible as to the total number of deaths that occur annually, though.

Like, a couple hundred even in the worst years, in the U.S.

Stopping those would probably require a massive surveillance state which would cost billions annually and would, like with gun confiscations, oppress 'normal' citizens. To say nothing of the potential for abuses.

The other way to stop those is to arm responsible citizens who can stop them as they happen

I dunno, seems like aggressively arresting and locking up the most violent citizens would also tip the balance in favor of letting the remaining citizens remain armed, making the chances of an armed citizen being able to stop a random spree killer a bit higher.

What really chafes me is that all discussion is sucked into the gun control debate so we can't have a decent discussion about other policy approaches.

He’s using colourful nicknames, I believe- wedgies are probably wedge tailed eagles, for example.

Unsurprisingly, the FBI has nerfed its crime data under Biden making it much harder to get useful information. So the epistemological situation is only getting worse.

The carolina parakeet. The only parrot species native to the USA.

There are native parrots on the Rio grande.

I am sure that there are some wild species which the Romans found so tasty that they ate them to extinction, but 2000 years on, hardly anyone ever complains about not being able to eat them.

Ironically, the canonical example of a species the Romans ate to extinction is silphium, which people regularly complain about being extinct- because the Romans thought it was an effective birth control. Even if Roman medical knowledge was 100% accurate for once, how to prepare it as a contraceptive would almost certainly have been suppressed by Christianity(early Christian writers hated birth control, and it’s generally agreed that whatever efficacy silphium had it was as some sort of preparation).

But there you have it.

The teamsters have most of their membership in warehouses IIRC. I think a lot of it is just working class voters favoring Trump even when they’re making good money.