domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com
felis-parenthesis
2hr ago
But the language of "adding" rather than "topping up" has erased the concept of already has enough fluoride in it naturally. The idea is missing from the discourse. Lots of ordinary people have naturally occurring fluoride in their drinking water and have no idea that it has always been like that. Dr Nerd's third attempt at making his point will make not make sense to those people and they will ignore him.
We can tell that the idea of already has enough fluoride in it naturally has been erased from the discourse, simply by listening out for the missing follow-up questions. When some-one is on the media, arguing against fluoridation on the grounds that the recommended level is a health hazard, the interviewer questions them. The obvious line of questioning is "What about places with naturally occurring fluoridation? Do you advocate removing it? How? Are the health problems actually showing up? There have been multiple life times for them to appear!" But the obvious questions don't occur to the interviewer. The concepts have somehow gotten erased :-(
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
2hr ago
Nope, if Trump manages to stop the war, the Peace Prize will only be shared by two people.
Dean
2hr ago
This is tangential to my main point.
If that is so, I accept this correction in good faith, and I do believe this elaboration of the main argument is substantially stronger. I am not attempting to change your opinion on Nate Silver's accuracy.
I am still curious of if there was ever evidence that Silver's bet was accepted, both for it's own sake in addressing the question and to updating priors, but an argument of 'he would have lost money if he made the bet' is a substantially different argument than 'he refused to respect his own challenge,' and if you did not mean the later interpretation I am grateful for the clarification.
MaximumCuddles
2hr ago
“Never interrupt your opponent while they are making a mistake.” Taken to its absolute logical conclusion, I guess. Many such cases.
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
2hr ago
Did the IRGC ask some guy to come up with one, or did the FBI, pretending to be the IRGC, do so? The FBI has such low credibility in this sort of thing that my prior is it's the latter.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
2hr ago
Why not strike a deal now and make a bid for the Nobel Peace Prize?
I was talking to my wife yesterday when I realized how cursed the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize will be if Trump manages to stop the war. Trump, Putin and Zelensky on the stage receiving their three-way award, one genuine smile and two very fake ones.
FiveHourMarathon
Listen to Pierre
2hr ago
Idk to me the whole thing seems like a wash. Dude tried to fuck a 16yo, a hazardous occupation even if it is technically legal.
peanutgallery
2hr ago
His big brag in 2016 was ultimately that he had herded towards 50/50 harder than anybody else.
Seriously.. Of course he is going to claim credit but he shouldn’t get credit for having his model hedge more than others. But apparently I don’t understand statistics because I think he shouldn’t get credit for hedging more.
aardvark2
2hr ago
There are probably large numbers of people who trusted Nate's modelling and lost money thinking 'oh well if Nate says it's 50/50 then I can profit from Polymarket being 70/30'.
how does it work?
Lazuli
2hr ago
It's a rough week for anyone playing Fantasy Football and going into Sunday against a player who started Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, both of whom scored a total of about 80 points, at least on the ESPN metric.
hanikrummihundursvin
2hr ago
You want to see what the "third-worlding" of America looks like in practical terms? California is your patient zero.
That's exactly my point? What did you think I was saying when I pointed out the folly of California? How did you think Californias current "ruling class" came to be?
Yes I know. It's also a rather stupid and Unamerican way to frame things[...] The problem is the importation of parasites and social dysfunction from Asia and South America.
Can you place the parasites and social dysfunction in a box or does it come with the people? It's obviously coming with the people. Where did they get it from? Does it fall from the sky or is it just a product of these people not being like white people? And the most important question of all, are there any realistic mechanisms to sort the people from the parasites and dysfunction?
You see, the specific corner of the US I am in has a sizeable black/brown population that's been here since the 18th century. In short, my America isn't "browning" so much as it is brown and has been for longer than anyone can remember.
Your particular corner of America is not representative of America as a whole, which ued to be 85-90% white between 1910 and 1960. The social dysfunction that has followed the largest non-white group of 'Americans' has done so for the entirety of the countries history. These people are obviously a problem, regardless of what you think it is.
WhiningCoil
3hr ago
The last post I made citing numerous government policies, and claiming the government hated me and wantes to deatroy me, you just told me "Stop it" with no further explanation. Theories in the thread were just that i was breaking "boo outgroup" or "consensus building". So no, I dont know.
daguerrean
3hr ago
Reputation as a confident better
It is not his reputation as a confident bettor at stake, it is his reputation as an honest man which reflects on both the value of his words as a bettor and his words as a political scientist. Nate has shown himself to be a weasel with no integrity and that should absolutely inform your opinion of his political commentary as a good Bayesian
MaximumCuddles
3hr ago
Probably? For now? It does seem that capability is sprinting ahead as we speak.
Massive cope. His model got a few small things right, it got the big things people actually care about wrong. As usual he will hide behind the “things with <50% probability still happen!” defense, but this is just sophistry as it was never 50/50
He liked to tout how in 2016 he allowed the errors of different polls to be correlated, rather than being purely independent experiments. But at the end of the day all this does is increase the uncertainty and expand the error bars. If you keep doing this and allowing for more error here or there it tends your “prediction” towards throwing up its hands and saying “idk it’s a coin flip”, which is what happened to Nate and why he had to shut off his model so early on election night. He did plenty of bitching about “herding” of polls while he himself was herding towards coinflip. His big brag in 2016 was ultimately that he had herded towards 50/50 harder than anybody else.
In the prediction thread I called this for Trump with high confidence and said it was an “easy call” because there was ample evidence there for those with eyes to see. 2020 was an extremely close election and by every metric (polls, fundamentals, vibes, registration, mail in voting) Trump was better positioned this year than he was then. Nate can call everything a coin flip and cope all he wants but his credibility is shot
A single link of evidence would have sufficed, and taken less time to write. It beggars belief that such a well documented and common cultural practice would be so difficult to find evidence for.
Since you keep playing the motte and Bailey game, I'll remind you that you asserted cat eating was going on as common practice IN THE USA. Even what you recommend that I look up to prove YOUR point does not actually prove the point you are trying to make!
You don't have to pretend that you're being polite when you snark to me implying I can't do a search, that I don't have a job and family as real and important and serious as yours, that I'm autistic or have brainstorms.
It is to clear to me, to you, and to anyone else reading this (god help them) that you are not being polite, I'm not being particularly polite, and we don't respect each other very much. Don't insult anyone's intelligence by pretending otherwise.
While I'm giving advice, (since that seems to be what we're doing here) I'd also recommend against engaging up until the point you realize you cannot and only then pulling out the 'I have better and more important things to do' card. You had the time to write everything leading up to this. You either play the card right away or admit that you simply don't want to engage in a battle that points out shortcomings in your thinking.
If you truly refuse to defend the things you say, then I suppose all I can say is good luck with your 'insane hours' and 'family'. May I meet you again elsewhere on this forum and obliterate you again in the marketplace of ideas.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
3hr ago
Investigators learned of the plot against Trump while interviewing Shakeri
Shakeri remains at large living in Iran
This sets off alarm bells. Shakeri, after his confession, was allowed to travel back to Iran? He would be on more surveillance than anyone in the world. Are we sure Shakeri isn’t just some agent pretending to be an Iranian while undercover in prison? I don’t think Iran would ever consider assassinating a US President because it would guarantee direct American and probably European involvement in a war against Iran. That is not in Iran’s interest, and it’s not in America’s interest.
Amadan
I will be here longer than you
3hr ago
Several would-be very funny people reported you with "He can't post that, it's boo outgroup."
Of course it's not "boo outgroup" to post an actual argument, without being inflammatory and rage-stroking over it, which is why this post is not being modded.
But you knew that. You always know what you're doing. You just pretend to be confused when you get modded for ranting about "Biblical plagues of retards" and the like.
Carry on.
Fair. I had planned just to stay silent and move on, but I was angry at his annoying responses. And I am legitimately annoyed at myself for spending so much time and energy on something inconsequential.
Won’t happen again. I will say formatting his response in such a way as “I demand you respond to me, if you don’t you don’t belong here.” Is way, way more obnoxious than what I wrote.
Also, I’ll also say that stating a culture eats cats is not inflammatory per se. I don’t think pointing out that some European cultures eat horse or certain East Asian cultures eat dog is inflammatory. Or that some cultures eat bugs.
I eat guinea pig and rabbit, for example. Lots of people think of them as pets and think of me as a bit monstrous for eating them.
There’s a tremendous amount of diversity in the world in regards to diet. It’s not inflammatory at all to point that out, and it’s certainly not inflammatory to point out recent arrivals from other countries being their habits with them.
Is it the combination of the two that is automatically inflammatory?
Amadan
I will be here longer than you
3hr ago
Look, demanding "cite?" can be an obnoxious form of argumentation and you are not required to provide one on demand. People here are very prone to (selectively) demanding links to evidence when they don't believe something, but that is the nature of this forum - you are supposed to proactively provide evidence, especially in proportion to the inflammatory nature of your claims.
But I'm not admonishing you here for failing to provide evidence. I'm admonishing you because your response to someone asking you for evidence was "Well, I do real work, not like you worthless paper-pushers, I'm too busy with my real and valuable life and family to care about what I write here."
And, you know, good for you. Spending time with your daughter is undoubtedly a better use of your time than arguing with Internet randos. But don't jump into an argument with inflammatory claims, and when challenged, play this "I'm too busy and I have a real life" card. That is really obnoxious.
FiveHourMarathon
Listen to Pierre
3hr ago
https://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/osama-bin-laden-letters-al-qaeda-leader-frustrated/story?id=16268578
They are not to target visits by U.S. Vice President Biden, Secretary of Defense Gates, Joints Chiefs of Staff [Chairman] Mullen, or the Special Envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan Holbrooke," wrote bin Laden. "The groups will remain on the lookout for Obama or Petraeus." "The reason for concentrating on them is that Obama is the head of infidelity and killing him automatically will make Biden take over the presidency for the remainder of the term, as it is the norm over there. Biden is totally unprepared for that post, which will lead the U.S. into a crisis." "As for Petraeus, he is the man of the hour in this last year of the war, and killing him would alter the war's path."
Obviously Osama could be wrong in his judgment, but then so can the leadership in Iran. It's an insight into an opponents thinking.
johnfabian
3hr ago
this was still a nail-biter of an election.
It wasn't as close as 2020 in terms of the number of votes, but it was still a margin of ~300k in the key swing states between a Trump win and a Harris victory.
MaximumCuddles
3hr ago
If you’ll notice my posting history it comes in little bursts. I basically never write very long entries. There’s a reason for it.
That’s because outside of this cute rarefied forum, I don’t have a silly little email job that allows me to get large amount of screen time and pop in here and write big theses with multiple citations. I have a real job in which I work insane hours and it that requires my full attention, and a family with young children.
So I found myself parked on the side of the road trying to find a source in an old x thread that would pass muster to make some random person believe that fresh off the boat immigrants from one of the most backwards countries on earth immediately change their entire way of life and diet the second they pop off the plane due to ‘magic culture’ and ‘magic laws’ which are basically unenforced. And that people in different countries eat different meat, including bushmeat. The absurdity of the situation sank in, and I resumed the important task I had at hand.
Even now at the ass crack of dawn as I write this on my phone, my daughter points to this as she climbs on me over and over again and exclaims “wow! That’s a lot of words!”.
Very politely, I’ll recommend you do a google search. Specifically about cat eating as a cultural practice. If you do it “raw” you’ll be greeted by a tidal wave of screeds of legacy media screaming “hoax” at the top of their lungs you. There’s also a handful of reels & tiktoks from people, some Haitian, saying this is true.
But if you know a bit about search, and can pull articles from say ten years or older, you might be surprised at what you see. The thread on X that I was looking for but unable to find even included a bbc article about which cultures ate cats, but I’m certain the Haitian portion of it was scrubbed after the controversy. They tend to do that.
Anyways, I’ve wasted enough time on this. Good luck in your search to find out that not everywhere is like the USA, I guess.
Hinging an argument on an accusation of dishonesty is precisely why I feel it is reasonable to request evidence of dishonesty, lest that accusation of dishonesty also be dishonest.
Ranger does not appear to have meant to make an argument about Silver's reputation as a bettor in the sense of upholding a bet, but if you wish to on the basis of Nate Silver being 'a weasel with no integrity,' I would make the same question of you: please provide the evidence that Nate Silver weaseled out of the bet.
I don't believe I have ever claimed to be a Bayesian, or ever particularly cared about others being Bayesian, particularly when the claims of being a good one or not revolve around character rather than statistical grounds.
In fact, for transparency I have a general skepticism of arguments about when other people are a 'good' [Insert Applause Category], since in my experience these often attempts to use assumed category requirements as a cudgel in either a No True Scotsman fallacy sense (if you wish to qualify as [Good Group], you must meet my critiera) or in ad hominem effect (this person is not [Good People]).
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