peanutgallery
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User ID: 3338
peanutgallery
25d ago
Statins being cheap should not be a factor for recommending them or not. It should be side effects vs what it improves and whether you can afford it should only come into consideration afterwards.
peanutgallery
1mo ago
It did incentivize him to hedge more and more until we get to this ridiculous point where he tries to take credit for a 50/50 prediction.
The problem is you can't evaluate how well the model did based on just the probability of winning, except for the correct or not question, and he was not correct in 2016. Maybe whatever he is doing in this post is good, but it sure didn't translate to the final prediction, so he doesn't get credit for that either.
peanutgallery
1mo ago
His big brag in 2016 was ultimately that he had herded towards 50/50 harder than anybody else.
Seriously.. Of course he is going to claim credit but he shouldn’t get credit for having his model hedge more than others. But apparently I don’t understand statistics because I think he shouldn’t get credit for hedging more.
Number Needed To Treat means you prescribe statins to 138 people and 1 person among them is expected to have positive effects. I am not a doctor but 135 LDL is pretty normal, you need to take statins for years before they statistically show improvement (lower cardiovascular events, for example), and there is no evidence for or against statins for people over 75, so doctors don’t usually recommend statins for people over 75.
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