domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com
jeroboam
7m ago
They always called for the to the war. They offered to return hostages in exchange for IDF staying out of Gaza.
How is this even a thing? Why don't they simply return the hostages unilaterally?
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
7m ago
The boys are gloating to the liberal girls that their team won. They are doing this by inverting the liberal catch phrase (“my body my choice”) to indicate ownership and victory. Ownership, or dominance, is such a mainstay of young male speech that I don’t think it needs an example, but “you got own’d” is the most hilariously explicit version. “Sonning” or “been adopted” is what the teens are using to indicate that you’ve become the loser’s father, at least last I’ve checked. In the gaming days of old, players would simulate raping the dead enemy’s body and talk about the other team “getting raped”.
Kamala’s loss has given young boys the ultimate opportunity to boast. Her own catchphrase can be expertly inverted to indicate that the boys’ team won using a clear, in vogue signal of dominance (“I own you” + “get bodied” = “I own your body”). When I first saw Nick’s tweet I literally laughed, and I still can’t read the controversy without smiling, because it’s so decidedly non-serious. There’s no serious policy prescription to attach to the tweet. There’s no actual interest in controlling a woman’s body. It’s simple, childish making fun of the other gender’s party. The fact that it has 80 million views on Twitter and teachers are talking about their kids saying it is… sorry, it is very funny. It is infinitely more childish than whatever the news is saying about it to instill a moral panic.
Note that Nick’s audience is separate from the groups that actually successfully control women’s bodies, which are all the conservative religious groups, especially Muslims. Nick is not a cleric in charge of your local Salafi mosque (a group that no liberal will ever consider protesting), he’s a dude making edgy commentary to teenagers. He is against abortion because he wants a conservative sexual culture where men and women marry early. That isn’t anti-woman as he wants virginity for both men and women.
jeroboam
9m ago
It could be worse. Here's what things are like in the Indian Navy.
But yeah, the idea that the US is capable of outproducing China is comical.
jeroboam
12m ago
It's other way around, every Chinese engineer with a 120 IQ is aiming to live comfortably in California rather than raise their kids in a totalitarian dystopia.
This doesn't seem to track to me. Aren't a lot more Chinese students electing to go back to China rather than stay in the U.S. these days?
From my experience, many Chinese people really enjoy Chinese culture and want to live there over the US even though US wages are much better. Maybe 20 years ago things were different, but China is a lot nicer place to live in now.
Another thing to consider is that a single Chinese-born man living in the US has bleak dating prospects.
ThenElection
34m ago
Hypersonics are asymmetric. A hundred hypersonics flying toward CSG-7 have much more significant implications than a hundred flying to some missile battery in Shandong.
miras_chinotto
certified low iq
42m ago
Qatar kicks out Hamas leaders
This point isn't accurate. It's based on anonymous US state department officials and has been denied by Qatar. Qatar has said that they think both parties are negotiating in bad faith and that they are no longer willing to be mediators for that kind of dialogue. What that actually means for Hamas' polticial office in Qatar is unclear, but it certainly isn't "Qatar is in awe of Trump so they're kicking Hamas out."
Mantergeistmann
44m ago
the barrage of Harris ads around reproductive
The clever thing is, it's not a Harris ad. There's a nice little disclaimer at the end that it's not authorized by her campaign. So, of course, when anyone complains, it's not the Democratic Party or their politicians behind these ads, it's just totally unaffiliated randos!
There has to be a term for that (other than implausible deniability). I feel like I see it a lot with IdPol stuff: "Well, most Democratic politicians don't use LatinX, so you can't blame them for your workplace's employee group!"
sulla
52m ago
The reason he treats it as an error rather than a predictable bias is because he doesn't think it's predictable.
And this is why he is an idiot. The pollsters all understand at this point that it is inherently due to a predictable non-response bias. As a fall back, many used the recalled vote to reweight the sample. But given the unusually high turnout for Dems in 2020, the recalled vote begs the question and was a sandbag for Trump.
Understanding this, unlike professional idiot Nate Silver, I made some heavy bets for Trump and won a good chunk of change.
anon_
1hr ago
It's other way around, every Chinese engineer with a 120 IQ is aiming to live comfortably in California rather than raise their kids in a totalitarian dystopia.
If anything, it further underlines how essential it is that we return California to a state of at least half-decent quarter-decent government. Last week's moderate sweep in SF gives me a sliver of hope.
Mantergeistmann
1hr ago
Similarly, young men on voicechat on videogames have been talking about fucking each others' moms in various depraved ways for decades, while lots of women experience this as traumatising aggression. It's clearly a gendered phenomenon, potentially even a biological one - it wouldn't surprise me if we found that isolated tribes in Papua New Guinea where men bond with "your momma" jokes.
There's an (unfortunately incomplete) cuneiform tablet dating back to 1500 B.C. that includes, among other jokes, "[...] of your mother is by the one who has intercourse with her. Who is it?"
Sadly, the fragmented tablet does not include the punchline, although given the other jokes/riddles, it presumably would have lost something in the translation.
Glassnoser
1hr ago
It is within the margin of error because his model allows for a systemic correlated error across all polls. He just doesn't make any assumptions about the direction of that error. What some people are suggesting he do is assume the direction and size of this error based on very little evidence.
hanikrummihundursvin
1hr ago
Fuentes made fun of women after Trump won. Fuentes is also a 'fed'. How should I relate these two things together and why?
JulianRota
1hr ago
I don't know a ton about the for-sale or streaming industry, but I can say that cover bands that do live performances seem to be pretty common and popular. It's a pretty good deal for everyone. If you want to see an actual big-time popular band, you probably have a wait a long time for them to go on tour, pay out the nose for tickets, especially ones that aren't terrible, navigate the hassles of going to and from some huge venue that might be far away, paying for overpriced food and drinks to maybe parking too, etc. Cover bands play the same songs, even a bunch of popular songs from various artists of the same genre, and usually do it for cheap tickets at smaller local places that are easier to go to and have much more affordable food and drinks, and do it regularly. If you just want to jam/dance/mosh/whatever to your favorite songs and aren't that concerned about exact musical quality or seeing the actual band in person, it's arguably a better experience.
No_one
1hr ago
Finally got it working.
Had to make the nutrient belt look whether all the fruit processing, flux making and nutrient making machines are running, and only then start feeding the rest of the factory.
And a myriad other tweaks. I'll be soon again playing the somewhat misnamed 'TheMotte' game that's atm only cjet799 and me. (password is trump)
Gleba is really OP if you get it to work, the amount of iron and copper you get from bacteria is nuts.
No_one
1hr ago
The US machine moves more slowly but once it gains momentum it tends to get there.
It was not the case back in the glory days of WW2. Today, it took Americans 15 years to solve oxygen issues in an oxygen generator for pilots.
The only possible case of this happening is if both are true a) US develops AI, and it's not a matter of compute but some special sauce (it has a proverbial moat). b) US manages to get around all the legal issues in expanding industry - endless wrangling over backyards, enviromental issues
If a) is not true, China will boost their manufacturing likewise. If b) is not true, US won't be able to expand its own manufacturing.
Also, unless AI at the level of hypersonic aviation researcher become available, China will have an edge population wise. Chinese aren't as imaginative but are less easily distracted - way more engineers. Furthermore, rivalry will drive out Chinese ethnic workers out of the US, quite likely.
yunyun333
1hr ago
We can't even produce enough shells for ukraine. It's explosive in a metal container, how hard could it be? And on the other end of the scale we can't produce enough ships, and also some of the ones we do produce are garbage, and we don't have enough sailors to properly man said ships. I don't see much reason to be more optimistic about the shiny new thing.
jkf
1hr ago
If the Twitter exchange is in fact a form of contract, then so is the stipulation of said Twitter exchange for the requisite next step- which includes Nate's condition that the other person send a formal contract via lawyer.
Just so -- that's why I wouldn't fault Nate for not paying up. But the whole point of honour culture is that one feels the need to go above and beyond what's legally required, even when it's to one's own detriment. It's not like the bet was unclear or something -- the sporting thing to do would be to chuckle and write a cheque.
anon_
1hr ago
I think Trump already started shanking the pro-life right with his comment about how great IVF is. That was a preemptive move.
It remains to be seen how his administration handles the inevitable push for a federal abortion ban.
anon_
1hr ago
I believe Nick was responding (at least memetically, if not directly) at the barrage of Harris ads around reproductive which all ended with a sinister (of course old white) GOP politician saying "I got the most votes, it's my decision". Of course, those ads could have been crisper, they could have actually said "it's my choice" rather than "my decision" which would have been an appropriate anaphora.
And FWIW, pro-choice referendums ran >10 points better than Trump! So they were absolutely right that voters want reproductive freedom much more than they wanted Trump. Floridians voted 57% for abortion even though Trump won 56-43. Trump carried NV and AZ but they both passed abortion rights measures too.
So while Fuentes trolls the folks for whom reproductive freedom was a central plank of a losing battle, it's a double troll that he gets to claim that voters support him on the issue when ISTM that the issue wasn't as salient. Hence the split-ticket Trump+abortion voters.
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
1hr ago
Hamas calls for end to war
Putin ready to end Ukraine war
China wants to work peacefully with us
These have made occasional suggestions of such nature for years now.
EU will buy U.S. gas not Russian gas
EU already buys a lot of US gas (19,4 % of all EU gas, according to this). https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-supply/
Zelenskyy phones Trump & Elon
All world leaders of note will congratulate whatever US president gets elected and will try to communicate with him as a matter of course. Harris would haev been no different. The only notable thing is Elon's participation in the call.
CertainlyWorse
Dedicated Pessimist
1hr ago
I'm sorry this happened. You did nothing wrong.
anon_
2hr ago
According to simulations, US is almost always losing the war anyway because it has no good missile defense, not enough interceptors and all local bases are in range of Chinese missiles.
I expect by 2030 that the US stockpile of hypersonics will compare or exceed China's and the calculus will change considerably. The US machine moves more slowly but once it gains momentum it tends to get there.
anon_
2hr ago
I don't necessarily believe it's cope. A weak government (of either side) with no mandate is just less good than a clear victory (of either side).
Sure there's individual losers and winner (oil & gas especially), but I'd say there is a combination of a Trump bump specifically attributed to him with a bump for "someone has a mandate to govern decisively".
A Twitter exchange is in fact a form of contract -- so whether the guy sent Nate a piece of paper saying "I will pay Nate Silver 100K if Florida goes less than R +8, otherwise he will pay me", I think the terms of the bet were pretty clear.
...?
If the Twitter exchange is in fact a form of contract, then so is the stipulation of said Twitter exchange for the requisite next step- which includes Nate's condition that the other person send a formal contract via lawyer. If the guy sends a piece of paper saying what you say, it would be failing to meet the conditions of the terms of the Twitter-contract.
I am unimpressed with those who have called out Nate as supposedly being obviously wrong about [latest election] without looking at his overall track record and comparing their own with his.
In any given election, if Nate doesn't absolutely nail it, he inevitably gets a barrage of criticism. But how many of his critics merely end up being "broken clocks" who tout their overperformance over Nate in one election, only to crash and burn on the next one?
How many of those confidently predicting Trump this time (or in 2016) did well predicting elections from 2018-2022? How many pet theories about "here's why you should ignore the polling averages this time and trust in [X]" consistently work?
This isn't Nate's first rodeo. He called both 2008 and 2012 as solidly for Obama when some people had elaborate theories on why the races were tossups or the polls were wrong. But it's not just a pro-Democratic bias: he called the 2014 midterms for Republicans even when some Democrats over-learnt the lesson of 2012 to believe that polls would be biased in their favour.
Contrary to what some people in this thread appear to believe, Nate doesn't just hedge everything near to 50:50 and claim he was always approximately right, or do nothing more than aggregate poll results. Nor does he claim to never have made a prediction that was wrong ex ante- he admits he was fundamentally wrong about Trump's 2016 primary victory.
Early in his career, Nate got an undeserved reputation as being almost clairvoyant, which he explicitly disavows. It's left him open to criticism whenever he doesn't reach this unrealistic target. But overall, I think he's consistently been a better political prognisticator than anyone else.
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