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I don't think Trump will get assassinated. If I were ranking potential assassination risks my top would be that if Biden is elected and has a Senate majority (even 50/50 with VP as tie breaker) the value of killing a right leaning SCJ would be very high in certain eyes.
Well now I'm genuinely curious, have you reassessed this at all?
Some, but not at the top line. I still think SCJ are more likely to be assassinated than Trump, though I would put it a LOT closer than I did before. This is because part of the reason I had them much more likely to be killed is that they get vastly less security protection. However, if Trump's security protection is going to be incompetent then that lowers its value (though its still worth a lot more than what SCJ get).
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The real games the powers-that-be care about are foreign policy and the distribution of money. The Supreme Court mainly handles the cultural wars kayfabe stuff that keeps the masses entertained.
But I don't think PTB blackbag ops are the real threat, I think it is culture warriors who have been convinced that the other side winning is Armageddon and they have to Do Something! Killing Trump would be a big win for those people, but he has massive SS protection at all times, and if the outcome is just Trumps VP takes office its not as big a difference maker as it could be. But the Supremes are much softer targets and would have a big effect if you could kill a coupe and Biden replaces them with lefties. Normally you'd think that Dems would actually balk at taking advantage of such a situation as that would be seen as endorsing assassins, but Dems also think several seats were stolen in one way or another, and Thomas while not a stolen seat is uniquely vile.
But manchin will probably not cooperate with replacing an assassinated justice, that’s a pretty big jump, and the core blue tribe has a widespread perception of the right being better at violence, so a big escalation like that is something they’re scared of.
My guess is that the Dems would go for a moderate, because throwing in an opposing partisan would get them in internal trouble but they'd want to be seen as not validating political murder. Except, well, in point of fact replacing an opposing partisan with a moderate still is validating political murder, so the Rubicon gets crossed anyway.
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Sure he would. Why wouldn't he? And what choice would he have anyway?
Would he even be able to find someone for the job in that situation? I know a seat at the court is the ultimate prize in a US law career, but if it comes attached with an permanent target on your forehead, I think the candidate pool is going to narrow quite a bit.
I would bet it would narrow only a very small bit. And of course the first time it happened the justices would get more security.
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