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naraburns  nihil supernum  2yr ago (text post)   35650 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 28, 2022

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  1. Almost certainly. They should almost certainly be charged; I have no idea what the federal standards for actually firing are. I’ll agree with @gattsuru’s observations on security clearance.

  2. Not impossible, but unlikely. Does it have more predictive power than stealing the most expensive looking bag? Because that’s what I’d expect motivates most bag thefts. (As a bonus, I’d guess women’s luggage is more likely to be visibly expensive and thus targeted.)

  3. Conditional on being right about 2), no. If I’m wrong and Mx. Brinton was unable to control perverted urges...yeah, I guess.

I do object to your weaselly “people like Sam,” since I’d consider the appropriate category to be “kink activists” or “identity politicians” or even “people who make the personal political.” Somehow I imagine your chosen category is more broad.

Conditional on being right about 2), no. If I’m wrong and Mx. Brinton was unable to control perverted urges...yeah, I guess.

Let's assume the worst: They stole the bag for sexual reasons.

Given that this single person's actions moves the needle for how you'll trust, hire, or promote other members of Brinton's group:

Does a story of a man repeatedly abusing and eventually murdering their young child move the needle for how you'll trust, hire, or promote other men?

Does the story of Sandy Hook move the needle for how you'll trust, hire, or promote other white men?

Does the story of Pittsburg Synagogue shooting move the needle for how you'll trust, hire, or promote other people with right ring beliefs?

Considering that all of these stories are far worse than the worst thing Brinton might have done, I'd hope that you'd have the same response.

You seem to be trying to compute probabilities by counting occurrences within a reference class, and then forgetting to divide by the size of the reference class. That's odd.

(# of sandy hook and synagogue shooters) / (# of white men) = small

(this one guy) / (# of transvestite puppy play wtf this guy is) = much bigger

I understand that. I didn't want to get down to the nitty gritty of accurately defining or sizing the reference class since it's a fairly inexact and tedious thing to do.

Let's take the example of men who commit sexual violence - obviously 'men' is a large group. But studies show that a certain population of men - ranging from 1% to 5% - have committed some sort of sexual crime (regardless of prosecution). So even at the best estimates 1/100 isn't exactly the smallest proportion. I don't know the specifics of how large Brinton's group is nor do I know the estimated number of sexual crimes they commit. But I think you're giving the OP quite a pass to use assumptions about a group that they probably couldn't name as justifications for discrimination.

Lets actually roll with your example:

Does a story of a man repeatedly abusing and eventually murdering their young child move the needle for how you'll trust, hire, or promote other men?

Apparently it has, for professions where this is relevant. 89% of childcare workers are women and about 85% of elementary school teachers are. So it does appear that we, as a society, have decided that it's too risky to let men work around children.

https://www.zippia.com/child-daycare-worker-jobs/demographics/

This story discusses that the suspicion you describe is rampant.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/men-teach-elementary-school/story?id=18784172

I would be curious to see your studies which claim 1-5% of men do sexual crime. A quick google search suggests that about 1.5% of America has ever been in jail and about 1/10 of violent crime is rape. Assuming another 1.5% of America got away with a crime, all criminals are men, and everyone in jail is a violent criminal, that gets us a ballpark of (1.5% + 1.5%) x (10% of crime is rape) / (50% of america is men) = 0.6% of American men did a sex crime.

https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2020.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States

I don't know the specifics of how large Brinton's group is nor do I know the estimated number of sexual crimes they commit. But I think you're giving the OP quite a pass to use assumptions about a group that they probably couldn't name as justifications for discrimination.

Consider an experiment one might run:

  1. Allow gattsuru to select a person he considers central in this group.

  2. Put that person, along with 9 randomly selected other people of the same gender and race into a lineup.

  3. Me, an internet rando who believes he understands gattsuru's point, has to pick the person from (1) out of the lineup from (2).

With what odds do you think I'll get it wrong?

To be fair, if you can pick the reference class, you can do anything.

Guess what, you can pick the reference class. I'm giving you permission. "The reference class is left as an exercise for the reader," sounds far better than "I left it vague on purpose." So thanks for that phrase.

Given that this single person's actions moves the needle for how you'll trust, hire, or promote other members of Brinton's group

Well, what is Brinton's group? Who are we defining as their group? Non-binary people, genderfluid people?

Or people who make a big public declaration of "Ooh, I'm so unconventional, me! I'm smashing the gender patriarchy! I don't adhere to any of your dull boring conventional morality!"?

Because people who go on about how they're breaking taboos are going to seem like "well, if you're happy enough to be shocking about this and to break the rules on that, why shouldn't I think you might be looser on keeping other rules like 'not stealing' and such like?"

Look at our friend Sam Bankman-Fried: has he moved the needle on trusting, hiring or promoting guys who promise to save the world through charitable donations that come from vast profits via magic beans trading?

A person does not choose to be white, or male.

A person does choose to look like... well, what the subject of this discussion looks like.

Contrary to prevailing narrative, most of the time looks are an incredibly valid basis to judge people on. At least, when it comes to things a person obviously chooses for themselves. I would say that judging people on their choices is probably one of the best ways to judge people, even.

This isn't about choice, it's about an action by an individual leading to a stereotype of an entire group. They could be talking about the type of person to wear a suit to a party for all I care.

Considering that all of these stories are far worse than the worst thing Brinton might have done, I'd hope that you'd have the same response.

I think I'm coming at it slightly different than @netstack, but I don't have the same response. Put simply, Brinton's group (defined broadly) failed in their duty to promote positive role models. This makes me distrust their judgement.

If you can find anyone who loudly supported Adam Lanza or Robert Gregory Bowers, then I'd lose some trust in them as well. I just don't think those people exist.

What an odd conflation of highly identifiable niche/deviant behavior and uselessly broad identity categories.

If a man with swastika tattoos applies for a job with you after several other men with swastika tattoos blow up a Jewish orphanage nunnery, and your coworker says "woah there, you can't be prejudiced against all men just because other men have committed crimes," I think it's reasonable to suspect that the coworker is simply trying to deflect from the swastika tattoos, yes?

What an odd conflation of highly identifiable niche/deviant behavior and uselessly broad identity categories.

Can you clarify why you don't think these examples are relatable? Specifically with men and sexual abuse - men are significantly more likely to commit sexual crimes and a large amount of them do so. We're talking men of all shapes and sizes. If this rare incident changes your perception of an entire group than surely the rather commonplace sexual crime committed by men should do the same?

I think it's reasonable to suspect that the coworker is simply trying to deflect from the swastika tattoos, yes?

This hypothetical isn't relevant. Swastika tatoos are historically and contextually related to violence and a highly specific type of person. It's impossible to compare that sort of history and baggage with something like a subset of the LGBT community.

To reiterate, these sorts of events are not as common as you think they are. These stories do get happily promoted by the media when they do happen because that's the society we live in. We aren't writing headline stories about yet another father molesting his daughter.

Burying what exactly? You're putting the cart well before the horse here. Strip all identity politics out of this story and here's what you get: A mid-tier government official claims to have accidentally stolen luggage on a business trip.

Why is that worth reporting on? A story this small rarely makes the news. The only reason this is news is because it involves identity politics. I thought we were against identity politics here?

You should be asking the other question: Why did right ring media jump all over this minor story? It's simple, it's because they knew they'd get easy clicks by sensationalizing a story involving identity politics. Again, I'm pretty sure most of us here are opposed to media outlets doing this. But now it's somehow not only ok but appreciated? Especially when we have no proof of what happened yet and have good reason to believe this was a stupid mistake? It's ridiculous.

And a non-binary man who dresses like he’s trying to queer the joker, brags about pretending to have sex with animals, and can’t be normal for five minutes, is also a highly specific type of person.

Not impossible, but unlikely. Does it have more predictive power than stealing the most expensive looking bag? Because that’s what I’d expect motivates most bag thefts. (As a bonus, I’d guess women’s luggage is more likely to be visibly expensive and thus targeted.)

This was my first thought as well, but others downthread have suggested that the bag itself was only valued at about $300, which is not an especially expensive piece of luggage. Maybe it looked expensive?

It is difficult for me to put into words why "the kind of person who does public kink shows" automatically registers to my mind as "the kind of person who is likely unfit for public office at any level." I don't think that being into BDSM or dressing like a dog or even crossdressing is especially likely to correlate with being bad at making dispassionate policy decisions, or whatever else it takes to be a good public servant. But being quite loud and public about that sort of thing does give me a strong impression of rampant, unchecked narcissism, narcissism-adjacency, or some other idiopathic impairment of personal judgment.

It is difficult for me to put into words why "the kind of person who does public kink shows" automatically registers to my mind as "the kind of person who is likely unfit for public office at any level." I don't think that being into BDSM or dressing like a dog or even crossdressing is especially likely to correlate with being bad at making dispassionate policy decisions, or whatever else it takes to be a good public servant. But being quite loud and public...

Similarly, most defenders of this guy would probably object very strongly to giving the same job to someone like Andrew Tate. That would be true even if he had a degree in nuclear engineering or wrote 12 academic papers on the topic.

But being quite loud and public about that sort of thing does give me a strong impression of rampant, unchecked narcissism, narcissism-adjacency, or some other idiopathic impairment of personal judgment.

I think that it basically comes down to impulse control. If Jack likes to cross-dress and puppy-play in xer home dungeon, but when xe goes to work xe wears a business suit and uses "he/him" pronouns, then Jack can put a sock in it when necessary and I expect that if Jack ever gets a little "hmm, it'd be sort of easy for me to embezzle some of this money", that Jack can quash that impulse.

If Jack likes to cross-dress and puppy play in xer home dungeon, and when xe goes to work xe dresses up in (unflattering) red lipstick and heels and sends out an email to all xer colleagues about the particular pronouns they should use, oh and by the way there will be an interview on the local radio morning chat show where xe is discussing with the host xis involvement in the local kink scene, tune in at 10 a.m. tomorrow, then I am going to be more inclined to think that if Jack gets a little impulse towards "hmmm, it'd be sort of easy for me to take some of this money", xe has less rigorous safeguards around breaking stuffy old rules.

Is that unfair to Jack? Quite possibly, but on the other hand - 'the louder he talked of his honour, the faster we counted the spoons'.

TBH, some of this behavior is simply inappropriate in the workplace. If I sent out a department wide email about doing an interview on my sexual preferences, I would quite rightly be in HR, likely to be fired.

Only if you're a straight white guy, though; otherwise, that would be homophobia and transphobia to single you on the basis of your sexual and gender identification. I think this is at the heart of what people are objecting about - "if I did this in my job, I could expect to be in serious trouble and likely even get fired. I couldn't expect a host of people to be standing up defending me about 'just some creative roleplaying' and the likes of it".

What's sauce for the goose should be sauce for the gander. Should Brinton get the presumption of innocence, just like everyone else, regardless of their weird lifestyle? Yes, they should. Should Brinton get protection from investigation and presumption of "this is persecution", because of their weird lifestyle? No, they should not.

For me part of it is the special treatment based on identity category.

If I, a straight man, gave a talk on my favorite Playboy centerfolds, there's a very good chance I'd become unhireable in my industry. Even if it was a joke PowerPoint I delivered privately to a few friends and it happened to get leaked.

If you're a nonbinary queer activist, you can be much more risque, completely in the open, and be celebrated for it.

TBH that's as much class norms as anything else- posting your favorite playboy centerfold as a decoration at your desk would be totally accepted behavior in many working class jobs(yes, including the ones that have desks). Doing a comedy routine centering on your favorite playmates wouldn't even be remarked upon(although sending it out as a department wide email would be seen as beyond the pale).

Yeah, with the caveat that I wouldn’t recognize expensive luggage if I saw it.

I don’t even have a problem with being loud and public about such hobbies. Especially as activism. It’s crossing over, no pun intended, with their actual position that might be fraught. The government mouthpiece ought to be staid and boring and decidedly not transgressive.

"the kind of person who is likely unfit for public office at any level."

Your intuition is correct. Their participation in these behaviours means they reject polite society

I suspect "polite society" being used to judge fitness for public office would just be moral busy bodies banning anyone outside of a puritanical norm. Like how all homosexuals were banned from security clearances and witch hunts were ran to try to root out closeted homosexuals from security and defense jobs.

And yes, in this one case such moral nannies would have been correct. But as a general principle I don't want them gatekeepers. A closeted gay engineer in the 80s working on missile tech shouldn't live in fear of getting caught and fired since polite society had nothing but cruelty and derision for such people. Hell, I'm in a mixed race marriage. Thank God it isn't a few decades ago when polite society didn't take a fond view of miscegenation and deviants such as myself.

But being quite loud and public about that sort of thing does give me a strong impression of rampant, unchecked narcissism, narcissism-adjacency, or some other idiopathic impairment of personal judgment.

Setting aside what personality traits may motivate it, isn’t it better for a high-level government staffer to be public about what many might consider embarrassing? No one can likely blackmail this fellow about being a kink enthusiast, or whatever.

Plausibly, but this assumes that everyone who puts their (metaphorical) dirty laundry out in the open doesn't necessarily imply an absence of darker secrets available for blackmail. That might be true, but in this case the open parts didn't include "steals luggage and clothing for presumably nefarious purposes." Did the analysis include the risk of compromise by being paid off under the table in stolen women's luggage?

I do object to your weaselly “people like Sam,” since I’d consider the appropriate category to be “kink activists” or “identity politicians” or even “people who make the personal political.” Somehow I imagine your chosen category is more broad.

You call it weaselly, I call it vague on purpose. You get to choose what to think when I say people like Sam. You get to decide what makes someone like, or unlike, him. My category is broadly queer activists, which is the umbrella which covers your kink activists, and overlaps with your identity politicians.

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