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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   7606 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of April 21, 2025

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Leaving the polymarket here - seems to bet on Parolin and Tagle so far.

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-pope

@hydroacetylene—if you have insider knowledge, could you make some money here? (if that would be ethical)

I mean, it’s gambling. This is inherently an unreliable way to make money.

As an aside, ‘whether gambling on the conclave is an excommunicable offense’ is an interesting wiki walk. At one point Italians took out life insurances as a loophole.

N.b. Prediction markets aren't particularly profitable, even with perfect predictions. In the US, ForecastEX's count as swaps, but generally it's considered gambling income. But even worse you e.g. get taxed on your wager amount, besides what you receive back (put in $100 at 50%, win $200, only receive $140 at the end. Settlement time and miscellaneous fees mean you'd need events under 20% certainty to generate a livable income, but pot sizes aren't not big enough to justify the effort.

Polymarket you can get some decent liquidity going, but it depends on exactly what you're talking about.

Domestic stuff, particularly previous generation, is a mess of taxes and tiny maxbets yeah.

My money is on Pope Pizzaballa 👌

Cardinal Pierbatista Pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem? Let's go full DBZ naming with Pope Basil as his pope name. The meme pope.

But seriously, his appointment in Jerusalem as the first Gulf War loomed, and his living through all the terrible things of the past thirty years, have given him a perspective I think the church should be willing to embrace with the highest regard, given the situation in the Holy Land.

I’m sorry, I can’t see Pope Basil without thinking of the scene in Fawlty Towers where Manuel’s ‘hamster’ (called Basil) escapes.

POLLY (lying to a guest as they search for Basil): “The chef calls the ratatouille ‘Basil’… because he puts such a lot of basil in it.

MANUEL: ”He put Basil in the ratatouille?!”

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