hydroacetylene
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User ID: 128
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
I fully expect her to lose to Beth Van Duyne in four years, sure, but democrats will not learn the lesson of 'things that win local elections also win statewide, but more moderate'.
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
Except that hinojosa's actual policies are braindead lunacy, and this is common with statewide democrat candidates in Texas(although local democrats are often not that bad).
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
No, a regression analysis of fertility vs thé Republican base gives a white Republican TFR of about 2.2, regardless of how you input the numbers. There are no states above replacement because even the reddest states are not 100% R(and democrats in places like Oklahoma and Utah are disproportionately from very low fertility parts of their coalition, like LGBT).
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
This conspiracy theory probably is true because the CPI linked pensions have every incentive to downplay inflation because they’ll run out of money soon.
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
Ok, as a non American- not a knock against you, you’re generally well informed but probably not up on the vibes- California is not the permanent hereditary enemy of Dixie. The permanent hereditary enemy of Dixie is the Yankees. Being from California hurt Harris in large part because of California’s high profile mismanagement. Not because of regional prejudice.
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
Greg Abbott still won whites by 20 points. Mathematically, those new voters are hispanic(there are not enough Indians in Texas for it to be them). But I’d dispute the characterization that those are new Texans- they’re new voters, sûre, but that’s not the same thing. The way too online DHS was probably high salience to these people in a way it isn’t more broadly.
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
Trans is actually very unpopular, and republicans have successfully won on being ‘against they/them’- although you are correct that the issue in general is low salience.
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
Alaska’s lower taxes dont result in lower consumer prices- this isn’t so much blue commitment to high gas prices as a genera commitment to higher taxes.
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
I never want to hear ‘100 million deportations’ ever again.
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
Republicans need to flip six seats and win the presidency to get a simply majority. Thats likely to be a 2030’s thing, not a 2028.
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
I think the democrats will be too busy impeaching trump for it to come up. In practice, they have no near-term incentive to abolish the filibuster; if the GOP has a half decent but not great 2028, then it’s a lot more likely to go.
hydroacetylene
15hr ago
The idea that traditional societies saw anything particularly special about the age of eighteen is farcical.
hydroacetylene
15hr ago
Texas has a stronger 'core' of conservative interests and historically much more conservative hispanics. It's reasonable to think that they can potentially be won back.
On the other hand, part of the reason Texas hispanics were so much more conservative had to do with low voter turnout.
hydroacetylene
21hr ago
Hinojosa is a quasi-socialist nimby who's never had a job, I wouldn't be too sanguine about her. I do think she's not going to get very much done- but we're likely going to see some liberalization around pot and gambling.
My gut feeling is that the new Hispanic voters will monotonically vote against the party in power unless republicans can change the election rules, because it's a common enough pattern in Latin America.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
Yes, but actually lowering prices tends to crash the economy.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
Now Texas is run by Democrats.
Texas is run by democrats because it was a red state with very low turnout because Hispanics stayed home at high rates. The government talking about 100 million deportations might have had some effect there- there are now millions of new Hispanic voters and Texas is shifted permanently bluer.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Uh, no, not really- productivity per hour worked is very similar between Germanic countries, Americans just work more hours.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
No.
This is a commonly repeated misconception. Evangelical support for Israel is premised on 'we need to support Israel or God will punish us, like in the old testament'.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Anglo countries are not Turkey or India (yet anyway)
'Yet anyway' except not in the way you mean.
The American red tribe is the largest group in the developed world which is replacing itself. Over a long enough timescale, this becomes your 'huge traditional voting bloc for religious-cultural reasons'.
And the left cannot simply adapt to the red tribe; their own children are joining its culture as a higher percentage of teens and young adults are from a red tribe background. This part is already happening, by the way- look at the pop charts. SEC football is the hot new trend, even in pretty blue tribe areas. A baseline level of hostility is the bare minimum for keeping their own children from defecting- and as the demography gets more and more tilted, they need to ramp up the hostility more and more. This is structural.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
You think Ken Paxton’s adultery, corruption, and partying with fugitives wasn’t going to come out on campaign in the general? You think Ken Paxton’s going on vacation instead of campaigning would have won him thé election if George Bush had been nicer to him?
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Abbott outran Paxton by six points. Unfortunately, Paxton lost by 20.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Yeah, but given the social security time bomb thé party in power in 2032 is guaranteed to lose harder than republicans did tonight.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Look, I’d been telling you Talarico would win. I’m surprised and despairing that Abbott lost, Hinojosa is literally worse on the issues than Lula or Ramaphosa. But I told you it might happen.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Can democrats
No
The Dixie-Yankee enmity dates back to the 1850's. California first started to develop a bad reputation in the rest of the country in the 2000's. The horrendous mismanagement and outmigration made everyone dislike them. But that's contingent on California driving out UMC types that raise the price for everyone with their ridiculous mismanagement. No one cares about the Deep South sucking because people who move from Louisiana don't bid prices up. But even normie economic illiterates blame outmigration from California for raising prices 'because they'll pay it, they're used to it, they come here and they buy two houses at a markup and think they got a great deal on both of them, then they rent one out too high, everyone's taxes go up, they don't even notice because they're used to it, and prices at restaurants are crazy because they think it's normal...'.
Raggedyanthem had a post about them just not fitting in. California hate is contingent on decades of poor management driving outmigration, among whom the easily hated nouveau riche are overrrepresented.
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