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PaperclipPerfector  8d ago (text post)   1232 thread views

Transnational Thursday for February 13, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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According to the Telegraph, the US is planning to turn Ukraine into a colony: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/17/revealed-trump-confidential-plan-ukraine-stranglehold/

Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.

The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states.

So Ukrainian courts are no longer in control. Reasonable from a certain point of view but well into 'unequal treaty' territory.

The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licences issued to third parties” for the future monetisation of resources. There will be “a lien on such revenues” in favour of the US. “That clause means ‘pay us first, and then feed your children’,” said one source close to the negotiations.

It states that “for all future licences, the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals”. Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy. The fund “shall have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licences and projects. And so forth, in this vein. It seems to have been written by private lawyers, not the US departments of state or commerce.

Now it is the Telegraph, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Still it's extremely obnoxious behaviour from America. First it's "You have a bright future in the West. Come on, we'll totally let you into NATO. Just draft a few million more men, victory is near!". And then it's "hand over all your resource wealth, quickly now. Trusting us was a fatal mistake." If this is the case, then America doesn't even have the straightforward dignity of stabbing a man in the front and robbing him, it's pure villainy: trick him into an unwinnable fight, then demand he empty his pockets.

Talk about debt trap diplomacy!

Time for Russia to go to the one place not corrupted by capitalism!

Gotta be honest, I didn't have it in my bingo cards for 2025 that Europe would need to start preparing against what looks to head towards a possible US invasion.

Shades of Germans + Russians against Poland 1939.

IMO it's more like the British and the French but worse in some respects.

Germany wanted land, demanded it and then took it when Poland refused to hand it over. Russia wanted land, found a pretend excuse, went in and took it. The straightforwardness of the robber.

Britain and France promised to protect Poland and launched the lamest offensive imaginable, into the Saar, before retreating back to the Maginot line. They clearly had no plan to save Poland from Germany and refused to even declare war on Russia (which was a wise move). They made promises that they couldn't keep but never even dreamed of demanding Polish resources as recompense for military assistance.

The pope’s illness has escalated, he is now hospitalized at policlinico Gemelli. The hospitalization of an 88-year old world leader seems a relevant topic for transnational thursdays even if there’s little to elaborate on.

Do you have much of a sense of what the college of cardinals are like? If he were to die, what might the next pope look like?

For the rank and file- slim conservative plurality, median Cardinal not very ideological.

College of cardinals report is a website with the top candidates and their biographies and views listed.

Life got in the way for the last few weeks, so I just posted the final versions of the lists I'd been sharing here on monday here

This week I'm looking at:

Trump admin to challenge Humphrey's executor

If US makes nuclear deal with Iran, Israel will not bomb it, Trump says

Iran launches IRF6 production line at Isfahan nuclear facility

Iran's military urges leader to lift fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons

Israel allegedly used toxic gas to suffocate Palestinian fighters, captives in Gaza tunnels.

Israeli PM says he will make sure Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons

UN suspends its humanitarian work in Houthi rebels' stronghold in Yemen after more staff detentions

North Korea warns of retaliation after US nuclear submarine docks in Busan. North Korea has raised concerns over the docking of the USS Alexandria, a US Navy fast-attack nuclear submarine, in South Korea's Busan port, calling it a threat to its national security. The North Korean Ministry of Defence warned that their military is prepared to take necessary actions in response to what it describes as the US's aggressive military presence in the region, expressing alarm at the heightened tensions and potential for military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula.

Kim Jong Un slams US-South Korea-Japan partnership and vows to boost nuclear program. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has expressed that the growing security partnership between the United States, South Korea, and Japan represents a significant threat to North Korea. He reaffirmed his commitment to enhancing the country's nuclear weapons program in response to perceived military imbalances caused by this trilateral collaboration. Kim's comments, made during a speech marking the founding anniversary of the Korean People's Army, suggest that he is unlikely to engage in renewed diplomacy with the U.S. under President Trump, given the current state of stalled talks and North Korea's focus on weapon modernization.. cable belonging to Russian Rostelecom broke in the Baltic Sea

Could a rebellion in eastern Congo widen into a regional war?

Egypt to host emergency Arab summit on Palestinian displacement

First whooping cought death in the Washington since 2011

15K to 25K grebes killed by bird flu within Great Salt Lake, Utah officials say

Small model better than o1-preview?

OpenAI roadmap

The Islamic State has regrouped in Somalia — and has global ambitions.

The Somali branch has become the Islamic State’s new operational and financial hub, according to U.S. Africa Command (Africom), and local officials estimate there are as many as 1,000 militants under its command. Large numbers of foreign fighters have flowed into Somalia, establishing a formidable force that now threatens Western targets. The group has also become a key source of funding for other Islamic State affiliates around the world, which have killed thousands of people, including U.S. soldiers, according to U.N. investigators.

UN report finds brutal, systematic repression of protests in fallen Bangladesh regime

Potential spikes in AIDS-related deaths and a resurgence of untreated infections if access to antiviral drugs continues to be frozen by the US

China views the Philippines seeking to organize joint patrols with the US as a provocative move. In response, they conducted their own patrols (cn). Southern Theater Command: The People's Liberation Army Southern Theater Command conducts routine patrols in the South China Sea area. (cn)

On February 12, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command carried out routine patrols in the South China Sea, according to Air Force Senior Colonel Tian Junli. The Philippines has been attempting to engage external countries in 'joint patrols', which is viewed as a military provocation that obscures its illegal activities regarding China's maritime rights. China asserts its historical and legal claims over these territories, emphasizing that its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights are undisputed and must be respected. The Southern Theater Command remains on high alert to ensure the defense of national interests and to counter any disruptive military efforts in the region.

(I'm now parsing Chinese military news to check for precursors of a Taiwanese invasion)

Sudan confirms agreement on Russian naval base.

Trump and Putin to begin talks on ending Ukraine war

China is building four more type 093 nuclear attack submarines

Could a rebellion in eastern Congo widen into a regional war?

It already is, multiple foreign militaries are on the ground. Hundreds of Romanian mercenaries were even captured.

Multiple militaries intervened in the Spanish civil war yet it didn't spread into a regional war (unless one counts WW2 lol). In that stronger sense Congo hasn't spread that much throughout the region?

Perhaps, but the Congo Wars were called the "African World Wars," no?

Wait, Romanians?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d591ldq46o

Thank you, this provides a ton of context.

Underperforming Eastern European economies and Latin America are the main sources for mercenaries.

The toxic gas is carbon monoxide ...

Potential spikes in AIDS-related deaths and a resurgence of untreated infections if access to antiviral drugs continues to be frozen by the US

I wonder why EU, china and Canada didn't pick up the slack. Or private persons. It is not as if Bill Gates doesn't know how to write a check.

Trump and Putin to begin talks on ending Ukraine war

From the signals Trump administration sends - on terms that Zelensky probably dislikes.

The Islamic State has regrouped in Somalia — and has global ambitions. The Somali branch has become the Islamic State’s new operational and financial hub, according to U.S. Africa Command (Africom), and local officials estimate there are as many as 1,000 militants under its command. Large numbers of foreign fighters have flowed into Somalia, establishing a formidable force that now threatens Western targets.

1000 fighters? Formidable force? Sounds like an overhyped threat to me.

Edited to clarify that it's a direct quote. Agree it's somewhat overhyped.

There has been another "incident" of a car ramming into a group of people, in this case a union demonstration. BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cd9x22dj423t

This comes 10 days ahead of federal elections in Germany. If there is a terrorist motive (which seems likely) this might give the far-right AfD another boost in the polls.

this might give the far-right AfD another boost in the polls.

I doubt it. Anyone who would be swayed by such events probably has been swayed by now, given that those attacks come more frequently than snow. How large can be the number of people for whom this one event actually made the difference?

But I have been known to err on the side of "nothing ever happens", so who knows.

There are always people who return to baseline quickly. I expect a measurable difference even between 10 vs 3 days before.

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