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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   2746 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for October 18, 2024

Be advised: this thread is not for serious in-depth discussion of weighty topics (we have a link for that), this thread is not for anything Culture War related. This thread is for Fun. You got jokes? Share 'em. You got silly questions? Ask 'em.

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US Election Bold Predictions Thread

Give me your hot takes about the results of the upcoming US Elections. These should be BOLD, don't just follow the prediction markets or the odds, and probably not about who wins the electoral college since the current best guess is that it's anyone's guess who wins. I should preface all this that on the POTUS front, I'm expecting a narrow Trump win, with a very low confidence in that prediction.

For me:

-- Trump is going to lose North Carolina badly, significantly underperforming his polling numbers. The very best recent results for Mark Robinson have him down by ten points after the Nude Africa, "I'm a black Nazi," "I write erotica about my sister in law pissing on me" scandal. Most of his staff has abandoned him. Reverse coat-tails normally don't work out, but Robinson's complete lack of any campaign infrastructure is a different animal than just being disliked. The Robinson campaign won't be doing any of the GOTV work that you'd expect from a gubernatorial campaign. I expect Robinson to do better, thanks to Trump, than his poll numbers indicate, he's probably not going to lose by 20 points. But I expect Trump to do a couple points worse than his averages, thanks to Robinson.

-- Deadlocked Senate. I don't know how, but I expect the Dems to pull out one upset in a red-leaning seat. They've overperformed in statewide elections since Dobbs, and I just think they'll pull one out somewhere. Trump is harmed less by abortion than virtually every other R candidate, because a lot of people who like him just don't believe he's pro-life. R senate candidates are getting crushed on the issue. R candidates for competitive seats like McCormick are trying to swing back towards pro-life, but it's not going to work, it's just going to make them look weak and unreliable.

Kamala is declared the winner of the election. Trump disputes it, and several states refuse to certify. It goes to SCOTUS who declare a contested election. Trump wins the by state vote in congress. Lots of protesting.

Harris wins most swing states and the election, but someone like Abbott picks up the "vote manipulation" story and unlike four years ago manages to organize an effective campaign to gather enough evidence of borderline legal actions to not certify the votes from these states. The whole thing goes to court, and the congress chooses the president.

The very best recent results for Mark Robinson have him down by ten points after the Nude Africa, "I'm a black Nazi," "I write erotica about my sister in law pissing on me" scandal.

...Say what?

Man, one of the things I hate about American presidential politics is how it sucks up so much attention that lose track of other, more interesting political stories. This is the first time I'm hearing about this! He sounds like uncle ruckus

I think it got reported less largely because A) It was pretty much immediately headshot fatal so no horserace to cover, B) the worst parts are actually so bad they're impossible to report in normal news outlets.

@FiveHourMarathon

I haven't seen anyone consider how the set of candidates on ballot in Nevada favors the democrats. Of course, Nevada is among the bluest of the swing states anyway, and the least relevant state, but that's a relevant factor in its outcome, I think.

Neither side is willing to accept a loss, leading to civil war and the collapse of the republic.

He said hot takes. That's lukewarm at best.

Maybe then I can buy a house.

You will be able to just move into a mansion of someone who will have been executed for treason, you'll just have to join the side that will ultimately win and survive.

Already priced in.

I think Trump wins narrowly, low confidence.

One thing that he has against him is his fragile coalition. Although he is ahead in all 7 swing states (projecting for 312 electoral votes), his lead in each swing states is razor thin.

After those 7 states, there is no 8th state which is really in play. Virginia comes closest, but Harris is up by a whopping 6.4 points. That's actually less than Trump's lead in Texas (5.7 points).

So Trump could, just, squeak through, but this coalition is brittle. Texas is just one amnesty away from being flipped Blue forever like California was in the 1980s.

Is Republicans take even the house a bold take?

I think they will, personally, though I'm not sure what the protections are.

If the Senate is a deadlock and trump underperforms that much in NC, I don't think the Republicans will take the house.

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