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FiveHourMarathon

Wawa Nationalist

17 followers   follows 6 users  
joined 2022 September 04 22:02:26 UTC

And every gimmick hungry yob

Digging gold from rock n roll

Grabs the mic to tell us

he'll die before he's sold

But I believe in this

And it's been tested by research

He who fucks nuns

Will later join the church


				
User ID: 195


				
				
				

			

		

	














	


		


			



	

		

			

			

				

					

						

							
						

						

							
							

								
FiveHourMarathon


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
Wawa Nationalist

				
				
				

				

					17 followers  

					follows 6 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 22:02:26 UTC
				


				
					

					
And every gimmick hungry yob


Digging gold from rock n roll


Grabs the mic to tell us


he'll die before he's sold


But I believe in this


And it's been tested by research


He who fucks nuns


Will later join the church



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
User ID: 195


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
					



		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's probably the case that in a military conflict shipping could pass through it. What won't go through is ordinary commercial shipping, because it isn't worth it. It's the difference between "Iran can get almost every single ship passing through" and "I'm not risking my oil tanker for no real reason."


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The government has been very explicit with stated public war aims and reasons, and has a number of private elements that are easily guessable.




Which time were they extremely clear?


Was it when Rubio said we didn't really want to do this but we had to because the Israelis were doing it either way? Was it when Trump said their nuclear program was completely eliminated a few months ago? Was it when Hegseth said there would be no ground troops involved? Was it when Trump said that the whole thing was pretty much wrapped up last week?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


imagine what an Iranian operation would look like if it was planned to take five weeks and we were only halfway into it.




I like this game we're playing where there's definitely a plan that's been clearly communicated, if you ignore half of what POTUS says, a third of what the SecState says, and two thirds of what the SecWar says.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Alternatively, the conflict never really ends and it's gitmo east.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
A shattered Iran in civil war would have to be terrible for sea traffic right? I mean there's always going to be one faction shooting at tankers.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Maximally cynically: brave dead Marines coming to grips with the enemy will produce a greater rally round the flag effect than high oil prices and the occasional air accident. The scenario where we bomb Iran and kill 14 copies of Muhammad Al Unpronounceable while Iran blows up oil tankers will produce few of the political benefits of a war; the scenario where Iranians are killing American soldiers will have some purchase with the public.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
What's the difference?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yet detentions are down nationwide. We're not seeing the same tactics used nationwide.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think when we have posts like this where a poster calls a series of broadly successful politicians uncharismatic and/or stupid, we should make it an expectation that the poster cites some examples of politicians they do think are charismatic. Somebody has to have charisma and intelligence to have reached the top in a cutthroat hierarchical game filled with competitors. They didn't all luck into becoming senators and governors and vice presidential candidates.


This place is feeling like one of those barbershops where every modern athlete sucks and couldn't carry the jockstrap of [guy from when the barber was a kid].


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Transnational Thursday for March 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


So where does their good reputation come from?




Propaganda. Iran, for all its faults, is a reasonably functional nation with a well educated population. Iran has a similar HDI to countries like Brazil or Mexico. Iran has the ability to put out propaganda about the IRGC, and does so.


That said, there's basically no country that could stop the USA from bombing the piss out of them if the USA wants to. China and Russia could nuke the USA, but it's not clear if they could actually protect their airspace otherwise.


Rather, and I'm going full Philly here, we need to realize that effectiveness for Iran (and for their proxies) is like the movie Rocky. Not the later sequels where Rocky Balboa becomes champion, beats Mr. T, wins the cold war, etc. But the gritty, original, actually good version of Rocky, where the story is just about this big palooka taking on (fake) Muhammed Ali. And he doesn't win. He doesn't even really get close to winning. But he goes the distance. He doesn't get knocked out. He takes it to a decision, he takes it to the closing bell, and at the end of the fight he's beaten all to hell, but the champion has to go to the hospital too. Rocky endures.


If the Iranian regime comes out the other side of this without being removed from power, the regime will spin it as a credibility win because they held together and the United States couldn't dislodge them. So hopefully there is an effective plan in place to dislodge the regime because the alternative is much worse.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
How does this explain the increase in protests following the shootings, which were largely reported in the leftist press as "fascist cops are just shooting protestors completely at random," if they thought it was risk free wouldn't they have stayed home after that?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's closer to Tokyo than I am to Florida. It's less than half the distance from Hawaii to California.


Actually it's nearly perfect to the distance from Puerto Rico to Islamorada, Florida.


So if an army fielding over a million ground troops took Puerto Rico with the express intent to take Florida, that would be the parallel.


If Trump were demanding Iran's unconditional surrender with 1.8 million troops stationed in the middle east and the express intent of occupying Iran, I'd believe that Iran might surrender. Currently the USA has 50,000 total troops in the middle east, with less than half of that in fighting ground troops.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Maybe this is a me-problem but reading @MadMonzer I'd say:




about being gay for Jesus (if you are being rude from a male perspective) or about Jesus wanting to be your perfect romance-novel boyfriend (if you are being rude from a female perspective).




and




individual charismatic lead pastors who are openly permitted to keep a significant percentage of the collection plate for their personal consumption.




Strike me as inherently pejorative negative definitions.


But maybe that's just my preferences. Even baptist pastors tend to tell me they "aren't Megachurches" or pejoratively refer to another congregation as a "would-be Megachurch" around me. Come to think of it, could be a regional thing: megachurch is something "they" do not something "we" do.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
My flair conveniently does both already, in addition to proposed future country during the Balkanization process.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Is there any non-pejorative definition of Megachurch? I mean this honestly, I only use it as a negative term of abuse. A sufficiently good Megachurch would become something else, almost by definition.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Why are you using the ghetto spelling of his name?




As a protest against the degradation being imposed on me by the decline of our culture.




You'll notice this chaos happened in Minnesota, and only in Minnesota.




...huh? "Mostly peaceful" ICE protests occurred in every city that ICE launched major surges into. Minneapolis ultimately became the flashpoint for a variety of reasons, but the same protests occurred in metros across the country. Moreover, post Metro Surge, arrests are down across the country, not just in Minneapolis. So after Metro Surge, Trump's team has pulled back on these tactics across the country.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I joked in 2012 that we hadn't really had a black president until Obama got reelected, as the first term only gave us half of one.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I imagine much like a gang or an army or an extreme sport, proclaiming your courage and willingness to die, and the risk of death you have already faced, is so socially valuable that everyone is willing to put themselves in a position to die even if they would all prefer not to draw the short straw.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
THE OUTCOME OF THE BATTLE OF STANCILGRAD STARTS TO BECOME APPARENT


Jumping back to the pre-war CW topics. There was a lot of debate during Operation Metro Surge about the wisdom of the tactics and choices being made in Minneapolis. We won't be able to really assess the results for years if not decades, but we're getting some early returns. After the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, Greg Bovino was removed from Minneapolis and there was debate over whether this represented a pullback by ICE, or just a shuffling of personnel. Politico reports a decline in immigration cases.




As the Trump administration has scaled back its most aggressive immigration enforcement efforts, the torrent of emergency lawsuits mounted by ICE detainees has also begun to slow. Courts have been flooded for months with petitions for habeas corpus — requests by ICE detainees to be released from custody or at least to have a chance to plead their cases. Habeas petitions are still arriving at astonishing levels, but have noticeably declined since the administration pulled back from its mega-enforcement operation in Minnesota.






A POLITICO analysis found that immigration habeas petitions peaked at about 300 to 400 per day from Jan. 16 to Feb. 17, at the height of Operation Metro Surge. It was in this timeframe — which includes the Jan. 24 shooting death of demonstrator Alex Pretti — when public opinion began to sour on the Trump administration’s mass deportation tactics. Habeas petitions peaked at more than 400 on Feb. 6 but have since steadily declined, dipping below 300 per day late last month and approaching 200 per day by early March. The decline in habeas cases tracks with a similar decline in immigration arrests reported by The New York Times, citing internal DHS data...Meanwhile, habeas cases in Minnesota have dropped sharply since the administration last month announced a drawdown of federal agents. Crackdowns in Chicago, Los Angeles and Portland led to similar surges in habeas cases late last year and into 2026, but they have also abated.




So we're seeing a drop in cases, related to a shift in administration priorities. I noticed less ICE in the news, and local activist networks were talking about ICE less, but they still seemed to be around and there was no declaration that things were cooling off. Trump has periodically made noises about laying off of workers in certain industries, but that’s never been really confirmed as official policy. Statistics and reporting now seem to be confirming a pullback after the deaths in Minneapolis. Obviously, some are not such big fans of this. Elsewhere in Washington




Top allies of President Donald Trump are furious at the White House’s new rhetorical emphasis on deporting violent criminals over all unauthorized immigrants — and they’re launching a lobbying effort to reverse that reversal. A group of longtime Trump allies, immigration restrictionist groups and hawkish policy experts have formed the Mass Deportation Coalition to lobby the Trump administration to refocus its efforts on deporting all eligible migrants. The group has commissioned new polling from one of Trump’s top pollsters to back its thesis that doing so will ensure GOP wins this November, and plans to share that data with White House officials, agency heads and every member of Congress.






“Overwhelmingly, Trump voters expect this from the administration. They don’t just support it, they expect it,” said Chris Chmielenski, president of the Immigration Accountability Project, which advocates for conservative immigration policy. “This is a good way to re-energize the base as we move into the midterms, the same way that Trump was able to do so in the lead up to the 2024 general election.”






The new coalition includes Mark Morgan, the former acting commissioner of Customs and Border Protection under Trump; Erik Prince, a Trump ally and former Blackwater CEO; as well as a number of conservative think-tanks and lobbying groups close to the Trump administration including the Heritage Foundation, Federation for American Immigration Reform, American Moment, and the Claremont Institute.




((Prince, notably, had this to say about the recent Iran war:




"Look, Steve, I'm not happy about the whole thing," Prince said on Bannon's War Room podcast. "I don't think this was in America's interests. It's going to uncork a significant can of worms and chaos and destruction in Iran now."..."Who takes over?" Prince asked on the podcast. He added: "I don't see how this is in keeping with the president's MAGA commitment. I'm disappointed."))






The campaign comes as other Republican strategists and lawmakers warn Trump’s mass deportation agenda is becoming increasingly unpopular following ICE operations in Minnesota that killed two U.S. citizens, and could hurt the party’s chances of retaining control of Congress. Since then, the administration has pivoted its message on immigration enforcement while overhauling its leadership at DHS. Border czar Tom Homan replaced CBP chief Greg Bovino in Minneapolis and drew down the immigration enforcement presence there; the president ousted DHS Secretary Kristi Noem last week and tapped Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) to replace her; and even Trump, in his State of the Union address, focused mostly on border security and deporting violent criminals.




It remains to be seen what Mar’Kwayne and his homeboys will do when they are put in charge of DHS. Possibly, given that we are now on a war footing with the largest state sponsor of terrorism, he will have other priorities altogether. I suspect the confirmation hearings will be an opportunity for Democrats to put Mar’Kwayne on tape about ICE policies, and to force Republicans to vote on the record before the midterms.


But if we see a sustained pullback in ICE raids along the lines of Metro Surge, and a net reduction in deportations, we have to call this a victory on the part of the protestors. Renee Good and Alex Pretti will have been successfully, if not exactly willingly, martyred for the cause. The whistles, the Telegram chats, the aggressive policy of confrontation with authorities, will have at least temporarily forced the administration to change course. A sufficiently determined and brave protest movement was not defeated. Love them or hate them, they appear to have succeeded, and others interested in changing American policy should take note. If enough people are willing to put themselves in the gunsights, the government will not be willing to slaughter Americans wholesale.


Does this reflect a fundamentally bad plan in Metro Surge? What adjustments can be made to neutralize this kind of aggressive protest against ICE? Does this reflect an underlying shift in public opinion?


My theory remains as ever that the plurality of Americans would broadly like to see immigration normalized, with illegal immigrants removed or otherwise punished, but that they are unwilling to accept the steps necessary to get there. So we're trapped in a permanent state of exception.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The convenient thing about Trump is that you know he's lying because he'll say two entirely different things in the same day.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I'd like to see one, because it would allow for smaller updates that don't fit into broader conversations already existing.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
That was always the dumbest part of Dune though, wasn't it?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The idea of targeted bombings is a lot like the idea of shooting people in the legs, the old canard that emerges after every iffy police shooting.


The reality is that you can't reliably shoot people in the legs and when you do you might kill them anyway, so we wouldn't encourage police officers to think they can shoot people in the legs to disable them because they'll end up killing more people shooting them when they don't want to kill them.


Similarly, innocent people die in bombing campaigns. Pretending they don't encourages us to bomb more people and cause more innocent deaths. We need to stop pretending we can target perfectly.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Citing Hitler in international law precedent is kinda iffy, as the modern international order is essentially built on a repudiation of Hitler and Imperial Japan. The starting postulate of modern international law is: "Hitler was bad, don't be Hitler."


See my longer reply below to omw for more detail, but this is a long running position in the American approach to international law and morality, especially illustrated by the two World Wars. The Lusitania was attacked, and that was a national tragedy and an affront to American sovereignty, there's no question that Germany would not have been seen as justified if they attacked a gun works in Missouri. Pearl Harbor was a "day that will live in infamy," it was a bad thing that Japan did that, despite the United States taking explicitly anti-Japanese policy positions in the Pacific prior Pearl Harbor.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
    

  1. 

    Yes, if not more-so, though I think it's better framed as "NATO" or "The Western Bloc" more broadly than just the U.S.A as countries like the UK, France, Poland and Germany have also played important roles in the process. Significant numbers of volunteers/mercenaries from western countries have fought on the Ukrainian side, and no effort has been made to prevent them from transiting to Ukraine. The U.S.A. has provided targeting information, restrained Ukraine from hitting certain targets at certain times and given the green light at others, provided training, and encouraged them to continue fighting. Russia has covertly attempted to hit shipments in Europe, and I'm still not convinced Russia wasn't involved in destroying a Tennessee munitions plant that killed sixteen people, but Russia has stopped short of bombing shipments across the Ukrainian border.
    

    2. 

  2. 

    Historically, no, that has not been considered a justification for direct action against a state sponsor. Rumors of Russian arms and intelligence supplied to the Taliban did not lead to strikes against Russia. Chinese "Volunteers" in Korea did not lead to bombing of Red China in the Korean War, nor did we strike against the major Communist bloc nations during Vietnam, nor did the USSR strike America during their own Afghan adventure. The major powers have mostly agreed that they are all allowed to sell weapons and give equipment and information to proxy fighters, even if those proxy fighters are in direct conflict with another major power, without it igniting a major power conflict.
    

    3. 



Now, the operative point there doing a lot of heavy lifting is that we're mostly talking about "major powers," and Iran may or may not qualify. Right now Iran is fighting for its sovereignty, trying to avoid becoming a fake country like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, or Lebanon where everyone (USA, Israel, Iran itself) has agreed that everyone can launch limited bombing campaign on occasion without it qualifying as a "war." Sovereignty and the laws of war have degraded, there's a big list of countries that lack the kind of sovereignty where the international community appear to have decided that a limited bombing campaign is allowed whenever another country judges it necessary.