FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
And every gimmick hungry yob
Digging gold from rock n roll
Grabs the mic to tell us
he'll die before he's sold
But I believe in this
And it's been tested by research
He who fucks nuns
Will later join the church
User ID: 195
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
4hr ago
Here's what’s in the US-Iran deal published at 13:14
Breaking As Donald Trump has been speaking, senior US officials have been briefing reporters about the deal with Iran.
The BBC was part of that meeting. Here are some key points from the 14-paragraph agreement:
Fighting ends - Lebanon included: The deal declares the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon"
Final deal in 60 days: "The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent"
US naval blockade ends: The US will remove its naval blockade of Iran within 30 days. "During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran". Also, the US "further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal"
Strait of Hormuz reopens: The key waterway will remain toll-free for 60 days, and then, a senior official says, "Iran will work not just with Oman but with the Gulf states to set up a broader agreement, a longer term agreement on the Strait of Hormuz"
$300bn for Iran development: The US undertakes with regional partners to develop a fund of at least $300bn (£224bn) "for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran"
All sanctions lifted: The US "undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran", with a schedule to be agreed
No nuclear weapon for Iran: The US and Iran agree that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and they will work together on removing Iran's enriched nuclear material through "blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA"
[End Quote]
I should note for anyone that wants to dispute this, I first saw the breaking report on CNBC who said only that the version they were read basically resembled the previous "leaked" reporting except that there was a specification that the enriched material would be disposed of, at minimum by dilution under supervision within Iran.
So, this seems to be it, unless there's secret clauses more favorable to the USA or you think the State Department lied to reporters.
The original American goals for the war were, as I recall and I don't mean to call anyone out so I'm not hunting for citations to arguments from months ago, correct me if I'm missing any:
-- Regime Change: Nowhere close. Very, very conditional surrender. Probably further away than ever, though I think sanctions relief probably weakens the regime rather than strengthens it.
-- Forcing Iran to Abandon Proxies: Actually significantly worse off than before the war, as the agreement essentially requires and legitimizes the idea that Hezbollah is an area of interest and control for Iran. Iran is allowed to ask for this unrelated conflict to stop, and they're expected to control Hezbollah to prevent recurrence.
-- Destroy Iran's Nuclear Program: It does seem that the HEU will be neutralized, so chalk up a win here, but it's unclear how the overall nuclear program will be impacted. Iran does not seem to be giving up its right to enrich uranium. The vow to not build a nuclear weapon isn't worth a bucket of warm spit, and at any rate they had already made the same statement publicly on multiple occasions.
In addition to whatever the overall costs of the war are, fiscal and moral, Iran is coming out of this getting:
-- Complete sanctions relief. Iran is already getting waivers to sell oil through the blockade immediately, and will receive complete sanctions relief. I expected most of this, more or less, when the first peace proposals were released by each side and you could see the middle ground forming. But complete sanctions relief? That's unbelievable. I think it's a good thing for America to do sanctions never succeed in regime change in third world countries they only have any impact inasmuch as the people targeted think of themselves as first worlders. Maybe this won't happen, the USA is framing it as pay-for-performance on Iran's obligations, but it's crazy this is even on the table.
-- $300bn in reconstruction financing. The fund will likely be structured in such a way that Trump can claim no US taxpayer dollars went into it, or consist of loans such that it's not "giving" Iran $300bn dollars, or be restricted in how it's spent so that it can be framed as humanitarian aid, but let's be honest amongst ourselves: Iran is getting $300bn in reparations out of this. We're paying Iran to stop the war, or at best we are pressuring the Gulf States to do so.
-- Protection for Hezbollah and a recognition of Iran's role as their patron internationally.
The Strait talk is still in the air, some reporting makes it seem like the strait will be toll-free for 60 days, indicating it may not be toll-free afterward. Other sources indicate that it must be toll-free forever. We'll have to see. Personally I suspect there will be a small "environmental impact fee" assessed on every oil tanker passing through the strait, and both sides will claim victory.
So, like, by the terms set at the start, it doesn't seem that the United States achieved most of its objectives. Maybe the nuclear issue will be achieved in some way, but the program itself has not been dismantled unless, as JD has said on The View, you like the new Iranians better than the old Iranians.
For what it's worth, I think it's good policy today to sign the deal. I even think the overall terms of the deal can be a net victory for the United States.
When you're in a hole, stop digging. There was almost no chance of achieving any of those objectives through the course of the war by continuing the bombings. Trump is now saying, publicly, that within a few weeks the oil reserves were going to run out and everything was going to go haywire economically.
And removal of sanctions is a Good Thing full stop. Sanctions do not work to change regimes, they work to punish populations. We can ruin some French Judge's life for ruling against Israel, but we can't force Putin to leave Ukraine and we can't remove the Ayatollahs. Make Iran rich, tie it into the global economy, and they have something to lose in a future conflict.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
8hr ago
Don't call them hydration breaks, call them TV Timeouts, which is what they are.
Oddly, some of the Eurosnobs in my life have admitted that...they're actually kind of nice? I'm not enmeshed enough in football to judge myself, but they claim that there's been less time-wasting and fake-cramp-injuries and bullshittery because the players are getting a structured break.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
8hr ago
Oh that I'd absolutely agree with, my apologies if I misinterpreted. We were absolutely racist to eachother all the time. In Scouts we often noted that we made jokes about our one Chinese kid all the time, but when another troop said a word it was fightin' time. I don't think it would have even occurred to us that if you called an opposing player a slur during a game in front of a ref you wouldn't face consequences.
I'm sure World Cup players are free to say all kinds of disgusting things in non-public training, but on the field there should be standards of sportsmanship. That should be understood as part of the deal: we let players be famous and wealthy and praised, and in return they agree to act like role models. But then I'm an old codger who misses the Yankees' appearance rules, and thinks players with visible tattoos should have to pay a fine every match.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
9hr ago
You know you might be right, I look forward to the classification from DHS that the Iranian team is welcome to stay as long as they please.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
9hr ago
https://thehill.com/policy/sports-gaming/5925843-iran-world-cup-travel-issues/
It seems like it would be elementary to keep eyes on the members of the traveling team while they are in Los Angeles, and attempting to use them to spy on Tehrangeles is a silly conceit to begin with.
Maybe I'm caught up in cold war nostalgia, but the story used to be that when Soviet bloc teams traveled to America it was the commies that locked them up in the hotel to make sure they didn't defect, rather than the Americans that hustled them out ASAP. We should WANT Iranian players to see rich happy free America, full of rich happy Persians, and go home and think about how their home could be less of a shithole if they spent less energy hating Jews.
And I think you need to be more specific re:racism. In my lifetime there is no level of organized American sport where a white player calling a Black player a nigger isn't a major foul. Because we understand that in a contact sport you can't say shit like that and not get violence. We can argue about where on the hyperstitious scale we should fall, or about how slurs are the only real profanity left, but for racial slurs to be accepted in sport in America you're reaching back to Hammerin' Hank or Victory's Glory.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
12hr ago
One thing that is not apparently to me is this - growing up in sports in the US homophobia and racism was the default and beloved by all...
I'm not sure I agree. Even growing up in philthy philly at the Vet, while I still have my "Romo's a Homo/Dallas Sucks T.O. Swallows" t shirt and heckling is a proud city pastime, I never heard anyone use racial slurs against opposing players, and if you had asked me about it at fourteen I would have said "well we all sing about T.O. overdosing on pills, but if you called him a nigger you'd probably get banned from the Vet." The only place I recall hearing racial slurs directed against opposing, and their own, players was in Boston, which is notorious for it, and even Fenway says that any use of racial slurs will result in a permanent stadium ban.
((As an aside, some of the best heckling I remember was the Bleacher Creatures in the Bronx chanting at Adam Jones in centerfield that the batting coach was fucking his wife))
Europe has significantly larger problems with racial abuse hurled at opposing players, it's just a different animal over there. And it seems reasonable to label racist slurs as "fighting words" within the context of a contact sport, you don't want to have players taunting each other into a rage. Some things we understand to be so offensive that we can't blame the taunted player for engaging in physical violence in response. The rules are seeking to cut off escalation at an earlier stage. The "no hiding speech" rule seems eminently reasonable, there's no reason to hide your lips unless you're saying something that you don't want publicized. I actually think the American leagues should police players' on-field speech a lot more heavily, and would if the unions weren't so unreasonable.
I'm amazed at the success of the world cup. I'd bought into a lot of the anti-FIFA, TDS negative reporting on the world cup, and so far it's been a complete success. I do think the efforts to restrict travel for the Iranian team is a little disgusting, the Spartans used to be the enforcers of the Olympic peace, but it's overshadowed by the joy that European travelers are bringing to the country. The saga of Lawrence, Kansas is so good that I have shitlib friends of mine saying that it adjusted their own feelings about the American heartland. Scots are reportedly drinking Boston dry. Selfishly, tickets are staying way too expensive around me, I was kind of hoping that I'd be able to snipe $20 tickets in the nosebleeds, but they haven't appeared yet.
And fuck it, the USA will probably fall apart in the round of 16, but I BELIEVE
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
14hr ago
The conceptual expansion of Doxxing as complained about online, at the same time that internet privacy has collapsed in most cases, is fascinating.
Fifteen years ago Doxxing was a narrow concept: you hunted down and exposed the real identity of someone who was posting pseudonymously on the internet, who at least tacitly hid their identity and did not want their "real" identity to be connected with their pseudonym.
Today, I see people accused of doxxing for things like finding out public information about someone who was real-name and real-face posting to begin with. Or finding the identities of public officials who performed public acts. Or normal acts of paparazzi following celebrities. It has been reduced to publishing any information about anyone in any situation.
In my mind, Doxxing properly has three factors: to be guilty of Doxxing you must a) expose real life details about b) someone posting under a pseudonym on the internet who c) had a reasonable expectation those details wouldn't become known. A LOT of people believe in exceptions for "this guy is really bad tho actually" or "well this was a journalist doing it;" I don't necessarily buy those.
This is clearly not a case of doxxing, it fails all three points. Franco wasn't posting on the internet under a pseudonym, he was communicating using his government name with a company. No real life details about him were exposed beyond his name, the rest came out after it was already a story. Franco can't possibly have reasonably expected that his message was private, particularly when it consisted of an insult.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
I was told that "woke is dead" but it seems cancel culture is alive and well on the kosher Right. How is one supposed to take any of the clowns seriously attacking "woke leftists" when they act like this?
Yeah...this ain't it big dog.
I don't see why they publicly published it, but being that insane a bigot IRL will have that consequence.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
Maybe you're correct and Israel has successfully pissed away generations of Jewish-American efforts to combat antisemitism in four years. But I doubt it's been that bad.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
Sure, if the Jewish population of Israel drops ~10% over the course of 35 years, then there will be no political problem for anyone in the USA. But if we saw mass casualty events in Tel Aviv, or entire cities in Northern Israel abandoned in mere weeks, then it wouldn't be survivable for any president.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
Also do DEI/affirmative action for people with children. The state should hire/promote for public servant positions the person with more children
Since DEI/Affirmative Action is most impactful and least harmful at earlier opportunity stages rather than at executive stages, I would say the correct aim should be to do Affirmative Action for kids with siblings. If you make having more siblings a major plus for getting into Harvard, and having enough siblings a near-guarantee of significant college scholarships, you get two birds stoned at once. Rather than the optimal meta being to focus parental investment on one kid to get them into Harvard, the optimal strategy becomes having a bunch of kids to boost all their odds. It subsidizes one of the major cost concerns for having middle-class kids, education. It taps into existing status hierarchies rather than trying to create new ones from whole cloth.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
A) The cosmic power of the USMNT making even the semifinals of a home world cup is so tremendous that it is actually supertemporal in nature, the vibrations would echo back into the near past.
B) One SCOTUS opinion isn't the final word on it. Trump won't accept an opinion upholding birthright citizenship and will seek to undermine it in some other way. And a pro-Trump opinion would merely be that the Constitution doesn't guarantee birthright citizenship, not that it forbids it, so at a later time it would be possible for Congress to write a more orderly birthright citizenship law into effect.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
By the way, is this the first deal with a foreign adversary that the American public hasn't been allowed to even read?
Probably not, public disclosure of treaty clauses has only been a norm post WWI, so there were probably secret treaties prior to that.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
Legally in the United States I have freedom to travel as I please. But legally in the United States, I can't walk on most interstate highways, I can't drive a car on any road without meeting a host of regulations and paying several taxes and fees, I can't fly in a plane without special government ID or at all if I'm on a list the government can add me to for any reason.
I suspect a similar fiction will come into play here.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1d ago
Do you read the New York Times? The push back against Israel is milquetoast at best, and would shift quickly if Israel were actually threatened.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
2d ago
I predict that if the USMNT has an all time run (for them) with the world's most accidental American, birthright citizenship will be upheld. The man is scoring goals for the national team because his mother was refused air transport home because she was too pregnant with him at the time. This wasn't even birth tourism: they just didn't want her giving birth over the Atlantic.
If they embarass themselves, birthright citizenship will be rescinded.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
2d ago
We had a Palestinian restaurant here that really went all in on the politics. They went out of business, probably didn't help but mostly the service was truly horrendous, like the dumbest kids at the mosque got waiter jobs there.
I kind of appreciate it, but I also wouldn't care about going to a Jewish deli that had Israeli flags everywhere. I like places where the owners feel free to express themselves personally.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
2d ago
The US suffers from being stalled in expectations. We will make the group stage, we will not win more than one game in them.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
2d ago
I don't think Israel has hurt their image to that extent. They've hurt it significantly, but not that badly.
The image of Jews who look sound and act like Europeans or Americans being pushed out of their homes would not be politically survivable.
As soon as Trump turns on Israel the Democrats will have the Jews back in their good graces.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
2d ago
I don't think one can pretend there's no difference between what Dubya did, which I protested at the time!, and what Trump is doing.
When Dubya or Obama gave circuitous and diplomatically phrased lies in press releases or statements by some underling, there was still some idea that if the President spoke directly and said it like he meant it, everyone would know we were serious.
If Obama had given a direct personal statement saying that we were going to blow some little country to hell if they didn't do what we wanted, everyone would have considered it a very serious situation. Trump now does that regularly. That possibility that there is a mode of communication that would be more serious or more credible no longer exists.
There is no way to signal seriousness or credibility anymore.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
2d ago
That was a literal reference I was thinking of when I said it.
Obama set a red line, and then hemmed and hawed about whether it was crossed and what the consequences would be, and as a result we sent so much crap to Syrian rebels that it sparked Chinese manufacturers to create knockoffs of the fanny packs that were issued by the CIA to sell to other Syrians who wanted to imitate the style. And we're still talking about it today.
Trump does the same thing over and over until we don't even bother talking about it on this forum anymore.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
2d ago
I've been critical of Israeli policy before, but that kind of disagreement hides a fundamental similarity: Israel is us. They live like us, they act like us, they mostly look like us.
The image of Jewish people being purged from their homes as a result of US foreign policy mismanagement would be incredibly destructive.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
2d ago
(Obviously sample size of 1 doesn't say much about anything, but from my perspective, football watching has seemed more sticky in a marketing sense than the other sports, idk).
I think Football is more of a social event than the other sports for most people, and as social connections have gotten more attenuated and the list of acceptable small-talk topics has shrunk, the NFL has taken on a greater meaning for a lot of people. It's doing work that casual discussions about things that didn't used to be risky or politically charged used to carry the burden for. Being Birds fan is a bigger part of my personality now than it was in college, because "Go Birds" is an easy way to chat with a wide variety of people in my life now. I can talk with my wife's ob-gyn and with my roofer about the AJ Brown trade quite easily.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
2d ago
The Israeli conflicts are a trap for American presidents because they don't want either side to win or to lose. Israel losing a war would destroy Trump's presidency irrevocably.
That's what I get for trying to write some commentary and then running to the bank.
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