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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024

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I think people are kidding themselves about how well we understand genetics and the mind. I hereby bet that in twenty years they realise the lower-IQ kids they were screening out actually may have had superior brains and intelligence traits in other respects.

A bet that a counterfactual would be superior is never going to resolve.

"The selected children will be worse than average" seems like a simple resolution criteria? Sure, "worse" is pretty hard to define, but that cuts both ways.

Worse than which average? Not being able to choose a reference class doesn't "cut both ways", it makes the question unresolvable.

Which reference class is the company purporting to be better than?

Aren’t IVF kids already crappier than average because the sperm which conceives them isn’t selected for strength?

Could you elaborate on this ?

No, I don’t really understand this claim I’ve just heard it as an explanation for why most IVF embryos are destroyed. To put it another way, my question was actually a question.

Sure. Selecting the correct reference class is also pretty hard, but that cuts both ways too.

We've had IQ tests for about a century now. Don't you think we would have noticed if there was actually some advantage to being stupid in that time? Why would another 20 years make a difference?

What kind of positive traits would you expect to find?

These traits are notoriously polygenic, and virtually every gene is pleiotropic. It's not hard to imagine that optimizing for IQ specifically can have unforeseen deleterious downstream effects. Genetics as a field is rife with unknown unknowns.

Like @Rosencrantz2, I think people here are kidding themselves about how well we understand genetics or the mind.

Psychology is one of the "softest" and least rigorous of all the sciences, and to the degree that IQ tests are measuring a real phenomenon it seems to me that whatever it is produces diminishing returns and starts to come with significant downsides in terms of mental (and to a lesser extent physical) health as you approach the tail end of the bell curve.

We are talking about a 6 point IQ difference here. East Asians and Ashkenazi Jews are already more than that compared to Whites. And there isn't any evidence for significant downsides in terms of mental or physical health, just the opposite.

IQ appears to be as close to an unalloyed good as it gets. To the best of my knowledge, the markers for most things we consider indicators of a good or successful life positively correlate with IQ, such as overall health, mental wellbeing, income and so on.

Is it theoretically possible that after a certain point, further IQ gains will require horrible tradeoffs (such as an example Scott once brought up of a family that seems to get +20 IQ points at the cost of going blind)? Yes.

But for very large and very meaningful gains, well past the 160s, we have existence proofs that people with high IQs do just fine. Better than you or me for the matter. I'll take plenty more gains along those lines.

IQ appears to be as close to an unalloyed good as it gets

This depends entirely or at least heavily on what you consider good. I disagree strongly that IQ is close to an unalloyed good, although I admit that it's correlated with many good traits.

I'm seeing a few comments like this but they're all frustratingly vague. What specific negative traits do you mean?

It is often linked to, at least in the modern world, a lack of ability to connect to emotions, and to connect deeply with other people in a somatic or non-rational way.

If it helps, you can think of IQ as more 'left-brained' whereas the capacity I'm talking about is more "right-brained."

high IQ people are more likely to be married (except at very young age) and less likely to be divorced...

That stereotype is, as far as we know, incorrect. Intelligence is positively correlated with empathy, prosociality and morality. Academic success also seems to correlate with empathy.

Which makes sense, if you look outside of carefully curated bubbles. Who do you think is more empathetic, university graduates or unemployed members of the underclass?

But if you look at the highest IQ university graduates they seem more socially inept on average and sometimes less adept at managing poorly defined problems than their not-quite-as-high-IQ peers. Perhaps they don't even have some higher innate trait, they might just be more in their own worlds and thus more able to focus/get good at logic problems. And the thing is that, while logic problems and math are useful in certain contemporary professional and scientific settings, they are in a sense simpler to solve than social problems are to navigate. We could end up creating AI that can replace high IQ people but cannot replace people who are good at handling social and political complexity, or who are good at understanding what really motivates someone.

To be clear I have no proper evidence that very high IQ is associated with less good understanding of people, it just matches my experience so wouldn't surprise me. And I don't believe psychological studies are good enough to prove it either way.

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I do think that there are advantages to not having too high an IQ. I studied maths at Cambridge and met my classmates.