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I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. Isn’t the obvious use case for election prediction markets to hedge agains unfavorable election outcomes? Why do we assume that people betting on Trump are Trump supporters? Shouldn’t, for example, Israeli settlers be betting big on Kamala to win so that they have money to relocate if Trump loses and they get kicked out of the West Bank? DEI consultants betting on Trump so they have insurance against losing their cushy jobs?
https://www.predictit.org/terms-and-conditions
You ain't getting very far on an $850 investment at 50-50 odds.
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Who is going to buy an insurance policy where the payout is only twice the premium? Just save the premium.
The fundamental difference between insurance an gambling is that gambling is predicated on the idea that people want to win, wheras insurance is predicated on the idea that people don't want to 'win' (i.e. have to claim on their policy), and this shapes the two industries into fundamentally different things.
That said, I've heard of people using gambling as an emotional hedge, e.g. 'I'll bet on the other team, so if my team loses at least I'll win $100'
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Sometimes actual sports betting is used to hedge against unfavorable sports outcomes. Houston's "Mattress Mack" is famous for promotions like "Buy furniture today, and if [local sports team] wins, I'll give you your money back," which he's been known to fund by betting accordingly in Vegas.
I could imagine doing this with political outcomes ("If Kamala wins, I expect to have higher taxes"), but I can't imagine the market is liquid enough to support doing this for anyone large enough to care about hedging. But maybe it will be possible in the future.
That's fucking genius. Unethical, but genius.
This is the kind of chaotic neutral thinking that we need more of in American entrepreneurship. Fuck Bay Area CS grads trying to come up with robo-dildo-taxis. I want dangerously unstable fly-over people using corporate treasury funds to seed fund a local strip club.
...Are these a real thing, or did you just give the porn industry a free idea?
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What's wrong with that? I mean it's exactly as playing white elephant as the VC types funding uber for furniture psychics apps to cash out at IPO using low interest loans. Just benefits the common man a little.
I really struggled to parse that sentence.
Have you considered moonlighting in marketing?
I called VC’s investing in companies that produce apps nobody wants or needs in the hopes of cashing out at IPO a game of white elephant with other people’s money.
Oh, I got it eventually. It was “funding Uber for furniture psychics types” that didn’t scan. I think that made it more authentic.
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Why unethical?
Responding to @hydroacetylene and @Lizzardspawn.
I'm alright with it! And I'm not sure it's illegal on its own.
It's definitely unethical in that, if that company has a board, there are probably terms that limit what corporate treasury funds can be used on (gambling is a no no). If the owner has sole ownership of everything, it's okay so long as gambling winning come back in as revenue to the company, I think. There's probably some tax gotchas.
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I don’t think these prediction markets are big enough to hedge against catastrophic geopolitical outcomes, whatever one’s views and hopes. $7 million moved the market noticeably toward a Trump victory. I’m not sure how a bunch of Otzma Yehudit hardliners could offset the cost of having to leave their settlements without driving down the expected return.
Can you even put $7 mil into these markets? Even spread across all the ones I can think of and every possible contract, it boggles my mind.
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Just like prediction markets can be assassination markets, so too can they interfere with normal democratic processes if taken too seriously. If there are people who will cut their losses and stop donating to their preferred candidate when that candidate's odds get too low, then manipulating a market can become positive EV even if you're inflating the price of your candidate's shares above where you believe they should be.
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You're assuming the people gambling on elections are using it as an investment vehicle or hedge and not just, y'know, gambling. Most people betting on prediction markets are idiots trying to get rich, not people making rational choices.
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