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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   1078 thread views

Transnational Thursday for September 26, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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I’m seeing unconfirmed chatter that the leader of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah has been killed in an airstrike. I’m trying to find a source but even if it’s true it probably won’t be on mainstream media for a few hours.

Sadly Nasrallahs death may not mean that much in the end. Hezbollah may be literally crippled as an organization and truly destroyed as an entity following the loss of all its comms networks and leadership relationships, but that does not translate to the Lebanese state or even another nonstate entity picking up the pieces. The Lebanese state is entirely crippled, with a paralyzed legislature, lacklustre domestic law enforcement, and especially an utterly broken economy. The state or another entity picking up the civil functions of Hezbollah will be possible, but nothing will replace the Iranian dollars flowing into Hezbollah member wallets.

Lebanons economy has been semi functioning for the last decade almost purely off the back of diaspora remittances and purchases of financial products by Gulf states, especially the USD-LBP high yield deposits. The Lebanese banking crisis of 2019 was probably more devastating than the civil war, because it bound the economy to external obligations hitherto absent to the Lebanese. A scheme of guaranteed high interest yield cash deposits with advertised fixed convertibility between Lebanese Pound to US dollars at pegged rates ballooned Lebanons financial sector, but it was ultimately a ponzi scheme. Investors buy LBP-USD fixed deposit products, expecting the products to yield USD. However, Lebanese are paid in LBP, and the state borrows ostensibly in LBP, and receives payments in LBP. Supporting a LBP-USD peg requires continual purchases of USD to keep the value of the LBP and keep the fixed deposit products viable... unless you just don't, and pay out depositors in USD from new USD payouts from new investors.

Specific attention csn be directed to the Maronite central banker Riad Salameh who was responsible for engineering this scheme in the first place. He built his career in Paris in the 70s, an opportunity specifically maintained by the French who maintain a somewhat protective relationship of the Maronites. From there Salameh built up a strong network and career, and likely contributed significantly to the early Lebanization of the professional sector of the Gulf states. It is strangely coincidental that vast amounts of gulf money found itself so readily moved to the aforementioned high yield deposits, despite the fragility of such a system being obvious to any banker or even moderately read individual.

This is the dire situation Lebanon is in. They have no external capital investments to nationalize, an external debt burden to the very people that were their economic product (and now unwilling creditors), an economically unviable local populace due to terrorism and lacklustre domestic industrial development, and now a shitload of restive cripples cut off from their external sponsor. Hezbollahs destruction is a good thing, but whether the Lebanese can capitalize on it is a different issue.

Confirmed. Big gambit; it was widely believed Israel always knew where Nasrallah was but chose not to kill him out of fear that his replacements would be more aggressive, less cool-headed.

Maybe should have updated after the success of recent assassinations of his underlings?

Can only imagine how angry Biden must be with Netanyahu after this

Why?

Biden - and Macron - has been pushing for a ceasefire. He was just doing it on The View and via diplomatic channels right before this.

The rubble makes it look dire.

If he was at the site of the strikes, he is dead.

Where are you seeing this? I'm seeing Hashim Safi Al Din (his cousin) but nothing about Nasrallah himself beyond him being targetted. Saudi and Iranian sources both claim he's fine and in a safe place.

There is only speculation so far.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822130

Some news from germany:

Bürgergeld-Skandal: The new welfare project by the current red-green-yellow government is exploding in costs. It was originally projected to cost ca 36 billion in 2025, but based on current estimates will cost 45 billion, i.e. a whopping 25% more. To give some perspective: The Bürgergeld is now almost 10% of the entire budget of ca 490 billion. In 2024, it was "merely" 27 billion.

Vote in Thüringen: This vote is considered an ill omen among almost the entire german elite. AfD, the new right (or far-right, depending on your viewpoint) is the strongest party and it's not even close. ALL other parties try to block the AfD from just about any position and power whatsoever, which in particular included a ridiculous scene when the age-based preliminary president from the AfD tried to just work through the official meeting agenda in parliament, but was constantly disturbed by the other parties asking for a later item to be moved forward (which was predictably about blocking the AfD from getting the position of president based on the fact that they are the largest party, which has so far always been the case, and which was agreed upon in the last government by the CDU back when they thought they'd get the majority). This is, of course, described by the media as the AfD-president "disturbing the parliament by constantly going back to the meeting agenda". In general, the entire current government coalition - SPD, Greens and FDP - lost a lot of votes in all the latest state elections, but the CDU can't really capitalize on it since many voters lost the trust in them.

Border controls: Due to the immigrant crisis deteriorating even faster than expected, the current government decided to institute a measure that formerly was claimed to be flat-out impossible based on EU law - border controls. The CDU in the opposition pressured for this as well. The problem is that they are completely ineffectual, pure showmanship. They only control large roads at easily recognizable border control placements. And as long as a person can utter the magic word "asylum" they get to go past anyway. Again, it is clear that the traditional main parties have very little interest in solving the immigrant crisis.

France is probably the clearest example of the old elites holding on to power via technicalities, but Germany is about two electoral cycles away from that being no longer tenable.

Since the whole traditional establishment essentially refuses to compete based on the largest political issues in Europe, the "alternative" or "populist" parties (not just AfD and RN, but BSW and LFI as well, with other examples elsewhere I could list if requested) are gaining steam on the edges. The way liberal democracy works, where traditional parties have a very highly integrated hold on media and social organizations, means that the electorate will likely choose all options in sequence before finally abandoning them all. We've already seen the last stage of this process play out in France, where remnants of old elites only got any reasonable percentage (though nowhere near majority) due to the deal with Mélenchon. While Germany is unlikely to have the same issue the very next election, where CDU is going to win based on voters nostalgia for Merkel years, there's no chance they can actually repair the problems it's facing.

Five years from now, the traditional parties, tracing their descent to West German political system, are going to be in the minority in Bundestag. Since the others will be both to the left and to the right of them, it will probably lead to some sort of a political crisis. And since Germany doesn't have the sort of strong presidency that France does, this crisis cannot be resolved in the same way.

Obviously something could happen in the meantime that will change the equation, but I just don't see it. The entirety of EU is enthusiastically running towards the edge of a cliff and I can't currently picture a way out...

Could you elaborate on how old elite hold power in France.

I've found France to be a remarkably well run nation, as far as European nations go. Public projects seem to get done on time and within budget. The non-white population actually feel French, in a way that I yet to see from any other country's minorities. There is significant amounts of industry, even though every one has impossibly good work life balance. They've protected themselves from global influence (locals use local-made products, the language and culture is strong) while still being able to project internationalism. They have the highest fertility in Europe, the society seems to deal with single parenthood quite well too. Looks like they're having their cake and eating it too.

I'll admit, I have a huge French friends group, who I love dearly. I also haven't been on the receiving end of their snooty-ness just yet. So, I'm biased.

Still, is there something unique that the French are doing right ? Or am I looking at it through rose-tinted glasses ?

Could you elaborate on how old elite hold power in France.

Maybe I phrased it incorrectly, but I just meant the traditional party system. Since the end of occupation, France has been ran by either Gaullists or Socialists. The exact name of the party changes and sometimes there are breakups and mergers or whatever, but the French electoral system just kind of implies two major parties - one on centre-left and one on centre-right. Since it's not pure FPTP, other parties are not quite as screwed as they are in Britain or USA, but they're nonetheless strongly underrepresented.

Over the past two decades France has kind of gone through and electorally murdered every single imaginable combination of these traditional governing elites. UMP/LR (centre-right) were wiped out after Sarkozy, then PS (centre-left) got wiped out even worse under Hollande, with power falling to a defector from PS, Macron, making a centrist (really kind of just basic liberal) party, whose popularity was initially huge, but has progressivey lost ground.

My point is that there really aren't any tricks left up the sleeve of the traditional political forces. They all have a popularity akin to Hitler at a synagogue or something. Macron appointed a premier out of LR despite having no prospect whatsoever of it having parliamentary support. How all of this will keep workin until the next election is going to be fascinating. My guess is that not much will get done in general.

Or am I looking at it through rose-tinted glasses ?

Vous semblez utiliser le clavier français, lol.

Les espaces avant le point d'interrogation vous ont trahi 😁

Maybe I phrased it incorrectly, but I just meant the traditional party system

This was crazy insightful. Thanks dude !

Vous semblez utiliser le clavier français, lol.

Les espaces avant le point d'interrogation vous ont trahi 😁

Nope, just a dude with bad habits.

My French is limited to 'se Kis kis pas', 'se vu play', 'saba' and random groans.

other examples elsewhere I could list if requested

Yes, would love some other examples.

Also, how much of a fad is BSW?

At this point, it's Die Linke that is looking like a fad. BSW delivers what most old-school blue collars want: Economically left, socially right. Die Linke seems increasingly like an anachronism/wrong import from the US.

I wouldn't go as far as calling them "socially right" - it's not like they want to ban abortions or integrate religion into classrooms and the like. On standard social issues BSW essentially just has a standard 90s era social-democratic rhetoric - they're subordinate to economic issues, but people are meant to be free to do what they want without influence from reactionary organizations. The only reason this can possibly seem right-wing is because SPD and their ilk elsewhere in Western Europe / North America have gone way past that in the past decade and change. But BSW is still nowhere near US republicans or other genuinely conservative forces...

True Finns in Finland. The only reason the party ever got anywhere beyond a minor protest party is because all the other parties steadfastly refused to talk about immigration issues for two decades. As a result, they've gotten the second most seats in the last two elections and are currently in the government. This has also broken the old system of three traditional big parties and several smaller ones, with the Center Party being now just a shadow of its past size.

Yes, would love some other examples.

Sure. PVV (Geert Wilders) in the Netherlands, VOX in Spain, Chega in Portugal, Reform in the UK etc. All of them are a response to the traditional parties essentially fusing on issues that are the subject of genuine controversy within the society, while the social and economic problems directly attributable to the policies by the traditional elites are growing.

Also, how much of a fad is BSW?

I'm not German and am not really extremely plugged into their society, but I doubt it's much of a fad. SPD moving away from any sort of traditional social-democratic policies in favour of becoming milquetoast eco-liberals created an empty space on the left. Die Linke occupied that space for a while, but suffered from internal conflicts based on oppression hierarchies and other essentially social issues - BSW doesn't have that issue. You can agree or disagree with their stances, but it's undeniable that there is a space within a political system for them.

Lebanon thread. A summary statistic is that Polymarket is at ~49% at the time of this writting that Israel will invade Lebanon. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-enter-lebanon-before-November

Considering that the IDF already stated that there will be Israeli boots in Lebanon, and the commando division already moved up north from Gaza, these are very low chances.

Looked into it, doesn't seem like the market has really priced recent developments. But at the same time, the US is trying to avoid an invasion. Not sure what to think.

Troop movements are always the tell for a ground invasion. It's almost certainly on.

Yeah I think 50% is about right. On one side, the only way for Israel to make the north safe again is to kick Hezbollah out over the Litani river. Where they should have been since 1980s if UN decisions weren't worth shit, but since they are, here we are. For Israel, the moment would never be as good as this again - they have the best casus belli ever, Hezbollah unquestionably started the fight, and with the Operation Grim Beeper being resounding success, the time is to strike the iron while it's hot.

On the other hand, Israel government is kinda shaky, and a lot of politicians there are itching for the opportunity to blame Bibi for "getting us into another war". And if it will be the full-scale war, there would be serious casualties - Hezbollah has a lot of rockets, and at least some of them will get to Tel-Aviv and other very densely populated areas, no defense works 100%. And Bibi's enemies will blame him for that (yes, they are definitely this cynical and more, politics is a very dirty sport). And, of course, the casualties on the IDF side will be way more than in Gaza too. Don't get me wrong - IDF is more than capable to kick Hezbollah's ass, but it won't be free, both in lives and in economic harm, and Israel is not eager to pay it. So if there's any glimmer of hope that there might be some other, cheaper, solution found, even if temporary, they will delay and hesitate for as long as possible.

I would assume US pressure against a ground invasion is also a significant factor in Israel's decision making here.

I think it'll happen. It's a now or never moment for Israel. Waning support for Israel in the US. October 7th was the perfect excuse to deal with Hamas and Gaza the way they wanted. Now the US presidential elections are coming up. It's the perfect time to handle Hezbollah the way they want. After which they'll possibly go after Iran, with or without the US. And if the US doesn't join, they might use nukes.

I think this one is for all the marbles.

Ground invasions into urban areas against terrorists hiding behind a hostile population under the constraints of modern human rights is a complete and utter nightmare. I can understand the impulse, but nothing good will come of it.

Uh, Lebanon’s population has nowhere near the level of support for Hezbollah that Gaza’s did for Hamas. I mean obviously the Christians have seen tensions with Hezbollah ramp up recently but the Sunnis also seem to hate Hezbollah- they just don’t like Israel any more.

In 2006 the MO was to evacuate the area of civilians, and consider anyone who stays a hostile target. In Gaza the civilians don’t have anywhere else to go, but Lebanon is big enough to make this work. (also a lot are evacuating to Syria, which probably won’t be invaded at all)

2006 is considered by many a dramatic failure, though, and civilians - or people pretending to be - just staying behind anyway will be treated by world politics and media no different than other civilians.

Things I'm tracking (besides Lebanon)

Geopolitics

Iraq also attacked Israel https://www.palestinechronicle.com/iraqi-resistance-drones-attack-israel-in-first-sirens-heard-in-bisan/

China seems to be producing drones for Russia https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-china-intel-sources-say-2024-09-25/

Hezbollah launched a ballistic missile to Tel Aviv. It was intercepted https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-hezbollah-says-it-launched-rocket-targeting-mossad-base-near-tel-aviv-2024-09-25/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/25/israel-hamas-war-latest-news-hezbollah-64/ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/25/hezbollah-fires-missile-at-mossad-hq-near-tel-aviv

UK sends troops to Cyprus https://www.reuters.com/world/britain-urges-nationals-leave-lebanon-2024-09-24/

Bio

India confirms mpox clade Ib case https://www.aol.co.uk/news/india-confirms-first-case-dangerous-152803698.html?guccounter=1

I'd call bullshit on that "targeting Mossad base" thing. I seriously double they have a capability to do anything this precise with their rockets. They just fired it in the general direction of Tel-Aviv. Surely, after it exploded, they can tell any tall tales about its target, making it sound as they are punching back as hard as they are getting. But I think they are just bullshitting as usual.

Makes sense

US troops deployed to Cyprus. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/25/politics/us-troops-cyprus/index.html

Things are gettin' spicy.

Things are gettin' spicy.

I know right

I think that's to help with evacuation. I think there's a long way to go before there's a chance US troops will actually be deployed for combat.

Yes, definitely.

I also recently refreshed my mind by looking at Cyprus on a map: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Cyprus/@34.4816366,29.3321508,1004982m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x14de1767ca494d55:0x324c3c807fc4146e!8m2!3d35.126413!4d33.429859!16zL20vMDFwcHE?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkyNC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

It's just placed very conveniently. Makes sense why Turkey would invade it.

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