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I think democrats have no one to blame but themselves. They absolutely lack party discipline of any sort. They could have told Biden he was done at any point between January and now and they knew that he was slipping mentally, and for whatever reasons they decided not to do it much earlier. So now they’re stuck.
Alternatively, this is the failure state of too much party discipline.
Biden is the leader of the Democratic Party, not the other way around. The American system is not a European parliamentary system, and there is no 'They' to tell Biden he was done: there is no list-control element that could keep him from running again, and he's the one whose allies and loyalists are in the positions of control of the national party infrastructure. That's why the primary season was reorganized to the benefit of state (state politicians that backed Biden in 2020), and why the national convention was being converted to a dial-in convention even before the debate- Biden is the leader of the party. Party discipline is discipline to him.
What's occurring now is the breakdown in discipline because discipline was used to drive into a crisis against misgivings. It was precisely the discipline that previously suppressed doubt and kept alignment, but discipline then breaks when respect and trust break.
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I don't think it's "lack of discipline" so much as the DNC leadership hasn't really adjusted to the new normal. They're acting like they still have the capability to manufacture consent/consensus that they did 10 - 15 years ago, but the thing about burning trust for near tearm gains is that it inevitably screws you in the long term.
Like, @pigeonburger says below, they thought they could Jedi Mind-trick the public into seeing what they wanted them to see only for the public to pull a Watto.
A 2012 DNC wouldn’t have been able to cover up that debate performance, I don’t think. Biden looked like a dead rat for two hours on live TV.
Instead I think they were some combination of 1) lying to themselves(‘Biden’s not a good public speaker’ ‘He’s slowing down but not senile’) 2) thought it wasn’t as obvious(maybe stimulants before the debate? Maybe didn’t think to check him after 4 pm?) 3) didn’t think too hard about it 4) caught between a rock and a hard place and trying to rationalize.
I feel like 2008 - 2010 was the tipping point. The one-two punch of the Iraq War and TARP broke the dam. The coverage of the tea-party and Trump eroded it further, and Covid became the final nail in the coffin.
Edit: to clarify a bit, i dont think Biden did as bad as he has been portrayed in some circles, but after months of the official narrative being that "Joe's sharper than ever, anyone suggesting otherwise is a russian troll" his debate performance might've well been a public execution.
I agree with this and I think you gesture at an important point - a lot of credibility was put on the line and invested in the claim that Biden is doing just fine and any claims of mental health decline are just misinformation, and now that credibility is going up in smoke. Sure, a lot of people will just not care or forget, but some will remember this the next time the party needs them to believe something that doesn't quite seem true.
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They had party discipline. Party discipline said not to admit to Biden's weakness. What they lacked is the ironclad control over public perception that they thought (not without good reason!) they had.
Basically, they thought they could Jedi Mind Trick the entire world into thinking they did not just see a clearly, obviously senile POTUS.
I don’t know why they didn’t just refuse to participate in the debates. Say Biden already debated Trump many times, and that Trump’s ‘a clown whose ungentlemanly conduct makes respectful debate impossible’. Obviously still looks weak, but most of the public would ignore it, on the day they’re not thinking “I haven’t heard from Joe in a while”.
Because they were the ones who wanted the debates. You're after-the-fact rationalizing that participating in the debates was an obviously wrong decision that everyone could see in advance, when two weeks ago before the debate everyone could 'clearly' see that Biden could expect to do reasonably.
Biden didn't just refuse to participate in the debates because he was the one who needed them to shake up a contest he was gradually losing. Trump approached from the position of having a consistent and enduring lead he could stand to lose; Biden was the one approaching from a position of having a consistent and enduring trail that would lead to loss if not changed.
To bring a card game metaphor: Biden had to make a bigger gamble because he was behind and couldn't count on average scoring to pull him ahead. The fact that the gamble failed, doesn't mean the game wasn't appropriate.
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I don't know why we're discounting the possibility that the decision was made by Biden personally, and Biden is either in denial about his condition or otherwise not a rational actor.
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I think they tried to do it in a way that saved face, by demanding a bunch of conditions that they didn't think Trump would agree to. But he called their bluff, and they were stuck.
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They miscalculated. Either they thought the terms they offered for debate (e.g. cutting off mics) would get Trump to refuse, or they thought their candidate would make it through, either because they were mistaken/fooling themselves as to how bad off he was, or because he wasn't as bad when they made the agreeement.
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The simplest answer is that Biden's the one making that decision and he thinks he's as sharp as he's ever been. Im sure he also thinks he won the debate and the current panic is all down to a hostile media environment.
After watching his post-debate interview with Stephanopoulos, I think you're right. Biden genuinely believes all his bad poll numbers are wrong/biased and his true level of public support is much higher.
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