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guajalote
5hr ago
The fact that "there are situations where your choices are limited exactly on these grounds" is not a justification. The government limits my liberty in many unjustified ways.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
5hr ago
Exactly - the Dublin regulation says that if an asylum seeker illegally moves from one EU country to another, then they can be returned and, critically, the EU country with primary responsibility is obliged to take them back. If a genuine refugee, they don't cease to be a refugee (the country with primary responsibility considers their application for asylum in the same way as if they hadn't crossed the second border), and they can't be sent back to a dangerous country. There is a similar arrangement between the US and Canada. There could probably be a similar arrangement between the US and Mexico if the US offered the Mexicans a large enough bribe - probably in the form of a large number of visas for Mexican citizens.
The reason why the US can't just deport every Salvadorean asylum seeker who entered through Mexico back to Mexico is that Mexico is a sovereign state and doesn't have to accept them. A huge part of the problem with modern-day refugee law is that every country with a lot of refugees inside its borders is by default trying to get them to illegally enter another country so they aren't their problem any more. (The reason why the US can't just deport them back to El Salvador is a matter of American laws implementing the Refugee Convention).
Involuntary relocations of refugees from one safe country to another (negotiated between the two countries) were a common part of immediately-post-WW2 practice, and are explicitly contemplated by the Refugee Convention in certain situations.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
Having done this, it might be possible to make an alcoholic beverage this way, but usually some degree of intentionality would be required or you’ll produce vinegar, not wine.
faceh
5hr ago
I generally think there's significantly more irreducible uncertainty out there than we like to acknowledge.
Even "margins of error" are just estimates (statistically sound, but still possible they're wrong) and actual outcomes can exceed them, rarely.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
It doesn't though, legal pot markets push for the highest THC content possible. Nobody smokes because they enjoy the flavor- that’s for pipe tobacco.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
Anti-ABS laws are not racist laws, they’re laws against being progressive activists. And republicans have passed a few of those.
That's my main problem with Nate Silver's modelling.
There should be large error bars around the prediction that slowly close in as the predicted event approaches.
It shouldn't be "X% Trump, Y% Kamala," it should be "X% Trump, Y% Kamala, Z% irreducible uncertainty."
The logic is "if the election were held today then here's the probability." But... the elections won't be held today. That's the whole point of the prediction for a future event, and I think it behooves them to acknowledge that uncertainty is inherent to the modelling process.
If they'd included that back when it was Trump vs. Biden, the conserved probability would have accounted for Biden suddenly dropping out and wouldn't have broken the model instantly. Also helps reflect the chance that one of the candidates dies... which also almost happened.
And if Nate trusts his model, there's a ton of money to be made in the prediction markets.
jeroboam
5hr ago
Sure, but this doesn't make sense in the context of prediction markets. Prediction markets host hundreds of predictions. We can look at the history of those predictions and see how well calibrated they are.
I don't believe the claim that prediction markets are "not accurate" would bear scrutiny.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
Like how does one suck at marketing so bad that they try nanny state patronizing on the libertarian leaning business owners? It genuinely feels like being talked down to because you're black.
Ok, some low social trust people are libertarian, but many are not- they want a government big enough to magically pass out money, and incompetent enough not to attach any conditions on it. Second order consequences don’t occur to them because 85 IQ and shitty schools that don’t teach economics. Crypto is not necessarily libertarian for the vast majority of people who own it.
jeroboam
5hr ago
There is still a big difference between the corrupt but functional cities (Boston, Seattle, NYC), and the corrupt dysfunctional cities (Detroit, Milwaukee, Atlanta).
Even here in deep blue Washington state, the government mostly still works. I trust the elections are mostly fair (modulo some Antifa ballot harvesting in Seattle races). In a place like Detroit, nothing works. How can they run an election fairly?
faceh
5hr ago
I'm just trying to prepare myself for how much worse things are going to get under the inevitable eight years of Harris.
Buy a bunch of "Yes" shares for a Kamala victory at a discount, enjoy your windfall.
I'm strongly considering it.
Muninn
5hr ago
I want to post an update on the status of my effortpost on the state of mental health care in my state. The first draft has weighed in at 8,202 words and, as trying to write the conclusion made clear to me, is heavy on legal and regulatory explanation. In fact, it is mostly a narrative of the impact of said legal and regulatory framework on our various clinics, seen through the lens of my own role in that, but light on outcomes, client stories and the like. While I can cram some of that into the conclusion, I'm planning on a rewrite that will try and flesh out how things have changed for our clients a little bit more than just the standard, "client care in these departments is suffering," and streamline the legal and narrative stuff, hopefully significantly. Or perhaps my perfectionism is getting the better of me. Either way, I'll find out as I get into the second draft. Stay tuned!
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
how likely it is that Trump's surge on for example Polymarket is the result more of speculative behavior than of people rationally trying to predict the winner of the election?
Why not both? We know that polls at least frequently are inaccurate with trump on the ballot, it is rational behavior to speculate endlessly.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
Crypto has pretty heavy black overrepresentation among the owners.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
Fort Worth, Salt Lake City, and OKC would probably be trusted by most Republicans.
2rafa
6hr ago
I completely agree, the frequentist view is nonsensical. This is why forecasters need to be nailed down to a specific outcome (or ‘I don’t know / it’s too close to call’ but this has to be acknowledged as opting-out).
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
laws so much as search&seizure ones. Do you have no protections against what ought to be an obviously expansive warrant?
Euro hate speech laws get a lot of press in the US in libertarian and conservative circles, but Europe doesn’t have the rest of the bill of rights either- I mean obviously they don’t have the second amendment, but police powers are just generally broader and the rights of the accused narrower. This is frequently relayed as a culture shock by vets who took advantage of being posted in Italy or Germany or wherever.
urquan
6hr ago
I mean, you’re showing up to your minimum wage job regularly, so you obviously have the capacity to keep up with obligations. Perhaps it’s just a habit. In which case, maybe your solution is pushing yourself hard for a few months to build the habits you need for success!
And this is probably 95% bullshit psychobabble, ignore me if this doesn’t apply to you, but as someone who struggled with procrastination I want to share my take.
Specifically, the fact that you struggle so much with school makes me think there’s something beyond just attention deficits that’s causing you to self-sabotage. My experience is that procrastination and self-sabotage comes from perfectionism and self doubt: in college I had no trouble completing easy assignments on time, but had a lot of trouble motivating myself to work on longform projects like essays, as I felt like I had to do them perfectly. I believe many problems with “self-discipline” actually boil down to feelings of insecurity and avoidance.
You’re obviously very concerned with not failing. Do you think maybe this contributed to your procrastination and avoidance? Were you so afraid that if you tried and failed, it would be a blow to your self-concept, and so you stopped yourself from trying and guaranteed a failure that you could say wasn’t because you were too dumb? Like, “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt?”
From your post, you’re analytical and thoughtful — most people in your situation aren’t able to sit down and analyze it as you have, they end up kicked out on the street without realizing what’s going on. And because you’re here, it’s pretty safe to assume that you’re at least above average in intelligence. Are you afraid of disproving that? Are you concerned that doing your all and failing at your 4 year college would make you feel small and pathetic? Maybe you struggle less in your minimum wage job because you consider it below you, easy, and therefore unthreatening? You can imagine yourself being some kind of starving artist, an undervalued renegade, maybe?
Have either of your therapists talked about short-term vs long-term benefits before? Have you looked into what blocks you from doing things, what benefits procrastination provides you in the moment, like emotional relief, even if it destroys your long term goals? Or do you not even get to the point where you know you have an assignment due Sunday night and it’s Sunday at 3pm and you decide not to try?
What’s your associate’s in? What kind of program were you working on at the 4 year college?
FiveHourMarathon
Just a Wawa Stan Account
6hr ago
What city exists that Republicans actually trust?
Until we get annexation of metropolitan areas it's just going to be like this.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
6hr ago
Is probability even well-defined for a one-off event? It's not like we can random sample the multiverse on how the election actually went. At the same time, nothing is absolutely certain (supervolcano as October surprise!).
Maybe it makes sense from a Bayesian perspective: given the current knowledge of the system state (polls, voter registrations, demographics, maybe even volcanology reports) we can estimate the probability of a specific outcome. But a frequentist view seems nonsensical, even if a lot of predictions seem to present themselves that way.
SophisticatedHillbilly
6hr ago
You have to look at their predictions in aggregate. If they predict 20 elections with a 95% chance for party A, and A wins 19 of those 20 elections, then yes they were accurate.
Even if that 1 election was a landslide for party B, the prediction method is accurate. People who say otherwise just aren’t accepting that it’s a percentage chance and not a poll.
DelendaEst
6hr ago
I am pro-life, but I think its a good thing. It means Republicans are looking at what is feasible to do and trying to do that. Few things are as irritating as my side making the perfect the enemy of the good. Compromising too much is abandonment of principle, but standing on principle so firmly that you cede winnable ground to the enemy sort of is too. And now that abortion is not a constitutional matter it is always open to further changes so I'd rather take what I can get now and then keep working towards more later.
DelendaEst
6hr ago
I saw some reporting a few days ago that speculated that part of the movement of black men towards the right (they will still vote Kamala at 80+% but still movement) was driven my crypto concerns. I'm not sure I buy that, but I'm guessing whomever wrote this press release did.
I’m not aware of any linkages between the trump assassins and Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, or Azerbaijan. Iran is not an European country.
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