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One way in which I see a second Trump term being significantly different from the first one is that he's not going to be shy around things like this.
This assumes there's actually things he can do "around things like this." I've made my case before as to why a second Trump term won't be significantly different from the first, because whatever his powers on musty old parchments nobody cares about, the President is a figurehead who only has as much authority as the Permanent Bureaucracy allows him.
This has been my position on Trump 2, and why I'd have preferred Desantis.
Trump could come in on day 1 and intentionally fire every single person in Fedgov that he has authority to fire, and those layoffs would be slow-walked so they'd take weeks to actually take effect, lawsuits would fly, deadlines would be pushed constantly further and further back, in some cases they'd just ignore the order entirely, and feet would be dragging this whole time to wait out his 4 year term. Inevitably, some of those workers would be "unfired" when it turns out there's nobody else immediately available to do their particular job.
If Trump can't bring in competent staffers to implement his plans, and he doesn't have a well of 'replacement' workers to step up and actually give the old ones the boot, 4 years is almost certainly not enough to significantly cut down the Federal Bureaucracy.
All that said, Javier Milei seems to have successfully made huge swaths of the Argentenian bureaucracy go AFUERA (correct me if I'm missing something) so there is a model for pulling it off.
Remember when Trump ordered the relocation of the Department of Agriculture Headquarters? It apparently worked almost as well as he intended! Shocker!
Trump is planning to raid the Abbott, Desantis, and Youngkin administrations for personnel. In particular the next governor of Virginia is overwhelmingly likely to be a democrat who fires them all anyways and both Texas and Florida have functioning conservative talent pipelines. It’s not like trump can’t get competent people.
Who will actually risk the possible consequences, often due to Trump himself turning on them?
I'm not so sure.
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Certainly not ones big enough to replace as much of the Permanent Bureaucracy as would need to be replaced. Assuming, of course, that Trump is even able to actually remove the people currently in place. And assuming he even gets elected.
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Eh, I’ve heard it before. He hires the best people, right?
What’s the deal with Virginia? Last I heard, the fights over schooling worked out okay for Republicans. Same for trans issues in general. What else is salient in the state, such that the polling leans so blue? @WhiningCoil
Recreational use and sale of marijuana was legalized before Youngkin took office, but he refused categorically to take any steps to establish any mechanism for legal sale.
I, for one, am kind of salty about that; I had visited Denver in previous years, enjoyed my share of legally purchased edibles and was really looking forward to being able to get them at a local mall.
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Virginia is dominated by Northern Virginia, which is a Washington DC suburb. For all intents and purposes, Virginia has been colonized by the federal government and votes with it's interest 99% of the time. Democrats have to be incredibly fucking retarded to squander their natural advantages, and they managed it back when Northam was elected. But for the most part, it doesn't matter.
Schools were probably the most salient issue that peeled off enough normies. And it was an uphill battle the entire time. The news lied, the schools lied, the politicians lied. And every time the truth eventually came out they just lied more. When they effectively lost the public relations battles, and the legal battles, they just dug their heels in and went "nuh uh". Nearly every school district is defying our Governors order with respect to trans students, knowing full well the school administrators will keep their jobs longer than our governor. It's tied up in courts, and even if the schools somehow lose, it's not their money they pay out. It's ours. But they are betting, probably correctly, that they can run out the clock until a Democrat takes over and drops the cases.
One county near me hit derangement levels I didn't think were possible, and voted in an even more pro-"pornography in schools" slate of board candidates. One took his oath of office on a literally stack of pornographic "childrens" books. Everyone clapped.
I've totally given up. Starting next year we are homeschooling our children. We were on the fence, taking our chances with private school. But after the most recent federal reinterpretation of Title IX, it's obvious no institution in any state is safe. Every single day we meet parents at parks doing the same thing. A not insignificant proportion of those parents are (or should I say were?) teachers themselves, and are choosing to protect their children from what they've seen the education system in our state become.
Do you think Virginia's non-consecutive-governor rule has an effect on their ability to make lasting change?
It certainly seems to. All we've gotten is a deep blue bureaucracy that holds the line, lies, sues, and is generally unproductive and passive aggressive when the executive is a Republican, and then double times it to push an agenda as soon as a Democrat gets back in. And frankly, it seems like the GOP has abandoned our state, there is almost no talent pipeline, and the old Clinton political machine has it's fingers in everything.
Fuck, I'm already getting mailers about local candidates. I live in a deep, deep red county, and all the mailers have been for Democrat candidates, and they all tout their experience in three letter agencies "fighting extremist" as credentials to keep "MAGA extremist" out of government. Of course all it takes to be a "MAGA extremist" to these people is think pornography shouldn't be in middle schools, or that schools shouldn't secretly transition children without their parents consent or knowledge.
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=sqSA-SY5Hro
Title IX doesn't apply to private institutions that don't receive federal funding.
Very few private educational institutions don't receive federal funding. Private means private-run, not exclusively-privately-funded, because we built a gigantic money pipeline for "our" "education system" back when people were still foolish enough to believe that resources could be shared.
Seems pretty simple to me. Don't want the feds in your school. Don't accept fed money!
Isn't it kind of crazy to accept taxpayer money and expect to make your own rules?
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Virginia is a blue state to begin with and it tends to swing away from the party in power, not towards it. They also have a weirdly timed election that would strongly benefit democrats if Trump wins in 2024 and IIRC Youngkin can't hold two consecutive terms.
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Nope. As soon as the trans stuff disappeared from the headlines, the voters promptly forgot and voted the same school board right back in.
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Think about it. How many competent, respectable people want the job of being Trump’s lackey to fix the X department? In the unlikely event that you aren’t fired and are even somewhat successful at purging the entrenched civil service, you have a good chance of literally going to jail once the next administration gets in.
One of Trump's big actual problems was a simple lack of anyone who was loyal to him or who he would show loyalty to, outside his own family.
I would consider this a personal failing of his.
On the other hand, if Trump put out a general call to his supporters to apply for Federal Government positions and he would expedite their hiring, he'd get probably tens of thousands of people responding.
I wouldn't expect 'competent, respectable' people to answer the call, but still.
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Nor should he be. When the Senate assassinates Caeser, it's bad news all around. When the Senate fails to assassinate Caeser...
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