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Notes -
So, some thoughts-
First, Greg Abbott does not take stupid risks. He has thought through, gamed out, and verified his assumptions about every aspect of this scenario, and he has a backup plan in case he turns out to be wrong. That backup plan is probably not "defect to Russia", and it's also probably thoroughly planned with assets in place to activate at a moment's notice. My first thought is "the shooting starts and we take over the pantex plant", but that seems overly dramatic. It seems very plausible that he has a plan to crash the grid in much of the country by cutting off natural gas shipments, and that would explain his timing this for January when late summer gives him political cover. It also seems implausible that support from other republican governors wasn't arranged before releasing a letter essentially claiming the federal government has lost the mandate of Heaven and so Texas doesn't have to listen to the supreme court; the twitter DR is claiming responsibility for convincing them all to throw in with him, but just think about that until you realize why it's probably not the case. At the very least, Stitt, Desantis, and Youngkin were probably in on it. I would not be surprised if there was a pre-planned border patrol mutiny or a few colonels able and willing to do something high-profile and panic-generating.
Second, Greg Abbott backing down is not going to happen unless he can cast it as a win somehow. It's unreasonable to assume the federal government will make large concessions, and the rally around the flag effect in Texas isn't proven but it's intuitively obvious. The most likely scenario to me is a high stakes standoff that goes nowhere. Federal troops shooting at state troops or arresting a sitting governor is the sort of thing that crashes the stock market when Biden's trying to treat it like so many frightened horses, so I don't expect much past posturing and defiance on either side.
Thirdly, the Friday deadline is probably China's last warning; there was a last Wednesday deadline that's come and gone too. While this assuredly represents a decline in the federal state capacity, that's the bigger story than border posturing.
Fourthly, Abbott has endorsed a series of primary challengers to accused rinos in the Texas legislature in the upcoming primary. Given that he became governor by being a constitutional lawyer with a winning record at the supreme court, he knew he was going to lose in court. The rally around the flag effect might be a benefit to him here if he's trying to get rid of enough moderates to solidify one party control over the legislature.
Further context here- https://www.themotte.org/post/824/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/178887?context=8#context
The funny thing about calling it China's last warning is that the PRC is assuredly watching for signs of chaos in the USA.
Well yes, they definitely are, and I'd have pointed to debt shenanigans as a bigger concern to their "watching for chaos in the USA" desk at Chinese state security previously to this. But there's probably some frantic intelligence reports being generated in Beijing and Moscow right now.
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He's not cutting off natural gas shipments. It would be murder for Texas-based companies like Chevron who pulled out of Appalachia because of low prices, and a boon for EQT and Range Resources. The number of people in Western PA who would see their royalty checks triple (conservatively) may be enough to give the state to Biden, if he weren't already in a position to win. Drilling in the Permian and Eagle Ford will grind to a halt, and there may be ripple effects where the money's made in Houston. I'm not saying any of this would be a certainly, but it's enough of a risk that I highly doubt Abbott would be stupid enough to attempt it. He knows who butters his bread.
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