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Notes -
The Reload reports: (previous discussions here, here, and indirectly here).
This isn't the first time the CDC has papered over a study giving politically undesirable answers -- it's not even the first time doing so for a Kleck paper, though at least that one had the fig leaf that Kleck misread the survey scope.
But the discussion here is unusually damning. It's possible that Devin Hughes, the guy signing many of the initial e-mails here, genuinely believes his argument that only the defensive gun uses that make it into the tiny fraction of media and police reports GVPedia has access to 'counts'. If so it's not really a defense of his logic or math, which rests on the claim that no one has found more 'confirmed' defensive gun uses than the Gun Violence Archive, when nearly everyone, including other anti-gun groups, come away from this topic with higher counts. Instead, there's a lot of evidence that GVA finds it appalling -- and could compel the CDC -- merely on the spectre that someone might reference the different numbers and might not submit to the GVA's policy goals.
To their credit, the CDC's people did not immediately fold on the topic; their initial responses are polite, but point to other reasonable interpretations of data. Against their credit, this interest faded after an unrecorded or unFOIAable Teams meeting, set up by the strongly anti-gun Senator Durbin, including the CDC's Acting Principle Deputy Director, with the Teams Meeting on either September 15th or 16th, and basically no FOIA'able discussion after that. There was no discussion in this discovery looking to talk to any of the many researchers finding higher numbers. Nor was there any point where the CDC attempted to ask Kleck -- who is on record saying the CDC has not, so it can't merely be a FOIA foible.
Worse, while playing games with FOIA redactions has long been a boogeyman of ... basically every political activist group, here we see :
Incompetence, perhaps? But in addition to the pages that are redacted in full under the poorly-defined b5 exceptions (probably the 'internal deliberations' prong) to FOIA, as was the above exclamation of surprise about Bryant's NAA links, it's also noticeable what isn't there are all.
Notably, Hughes claimed to have attached a slide deck from that Teams meeting. Maybe he forgot it, and missed the Outlook/Mozilla warning? But probably not. I doubt there's anything amazing in there, but in turn it's hard to imagine anything present that could not or should not be disclosed. Maybe they had a genuinely compelling argument! But if it's the same already-refused arguments repeated, it would look a lot more like the CDC's higher-ups are driven by the influence of a Senator and the White House than by anything in the data.
It's also worth spelling out one part of the process to find this, which is somewhat unusually public. MorosKostas begun the FOIA process in June, after reading a The Trace article a couple days earlier mentioning the removal had happened sometime in April. (Notably, Hughes from above is a former Trace employee.) He only got the response on December 12th. This... leaves some !!fun!! questions about political accountability; even if this particular example would not matter, five months is a significant portion of even today's extended political seasons.
((Not that it would or could matter for Durbin; for his state, this is a nothingburger, or even a bonus.))
More broadly, though, this points to a greater issue with the death of expertise. There are increasing campaigns to open up the CDC for gun violence research, often countered by gun owners pointing out a tendency for the organization to be captured by political forces, and it's hard to see this as anything but a poster child for that problem. Worse, you can point to the existing version of the page, which now reads:
Emphasis added. If they ask the question enough, perhaps they'll get the answers the political activists want -- and if not, they can ask for money to try again.
Re: FOIA, it is not uncommon for federal agencies to take months to respond (I had a request last year that didnt get a reaponse for 9 months, and even then all I got was a letter telling me to give them an update to make sure I was still interested). There is a non-negotiable statutory deadline of 30 days, but most agencies ignore it completely. Suing over blatant disregard for FOIA requirements can actually be decently lucrative if you know what you're doing. They're not even trying to hide how illegal their actions are, trusting in the general apathy of requesters to keep their litigation/settlement budgets under control
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I think the problem is that there's really no good data on the subject, and the data there is seems a bit too motivated. Gun advocates cite the Kleck data, but that has the disadvantage of being both really old and self-reported and almost certainly grossly overestimates the incidence of defensive gun use. Gun control advocates cite data involving actual police reports which has the disadvantage of being overly selective and almost certainly grossly underestimates the incidence of defensive gun use. This bickering comes off as pointless since there's no agreed-upon threshold at which either side will concede the other's points, i.e. it's not like gun control advocates are going to start campaigning for increased access if there's strong data to suggest that DGU reduces crime by 90%, and gun advocates aren't going to start calling for restrictions just because similar data shows that DGU is a marginal phenomenon. They're just going to move on to other arguments.
On the whole, though, I think the whole DGU argument actually helps gun control advocates more than it helps gun advocates. The most common explanation I've heard regarding why there's such a discrepancy between the data each side provides is that by relying on police reports gun control advocates are biased toward counting the most obvious and serious of defensive gun uses. When someone actually gets shot the police are almost certainly going to investigate and the circumstances surrounding the shooting are likely to be discovered. When someone uses a gun defensively but the criminal runs away as soon as the gun is visible, there's little point in reporting the incident (because it's probably not getting investigated), and some downsides to doing so (the defensive user might be carrying illegally, for example). I'm going to ignore the scenario where the gun is fired but nobody is hit because it seems rather rare and nobody appears to be using it as the basis of their argument.
If we assume that both sides are fundamentally right—that defensive uses that result in someone getting shot are rare enough so as not to justify concealed carry, but defensive uses where the perpetrator disengages after the victim exposes his weapon, then the deterrent factor is mainly because of the mere presence of the weapon and not its actual utility, because few perpetrators supposedly stick around long enough to get shot. Hence, a gun control advocate can justify a much more restrictive regime than a gun advocate would find comfortable. For example, a .22 revolver is lightweight, inexpensive, easy to conceal, easy to maintain, and takes cheap ammunition. It's obviously not the most powerful gun in the world, but I wouldn't want to find out what it's like to get shot by one at close range. It's also not the most reliable gun in the world, but it's reliable enough that when staring down the business end of one I wouldn't be too confident about it misfiring. And, of course, given the situation, it isn't likely the assailant will have the knowledge or time or proper illumination to even identify what's being pointed at him before it behooves him to hightail it.
As for the rest? Yeah, I'm sure it doesn't have the stopping power of something bigger and the limited capacity is useless in the event of multiple assailants, or that it has any one of the dozens of other problems gun advocates will tell me make a .22 revolver a bad choice for self-defense. The problem is, that all those arguments assume that the gun is actually going to be fired, and since that's a statistically slim possibility, it's irrelevant. But tell gun advocates "OK, we agree with you on the self-defense angle, we'll let you have a .22 revolver" and it probably won't go over so well.
I mostly agree that it's inherently nearly impossible to get authoritative numbers on these non-firing DGUs. Even if it was reported and a police officer responded, what are they supposed to do with "This guy came after me, but I pulled my gun and he ran away"? How in the world would they verify that it's true, and what would they do with it if it was?
On the low-end gun side, I would say that deterrence inherently depends on the belief that the one deterring does have the ability and will to carry out destructive actions. Right now, any attacker doesn't have any idea how effective a defender's gun is, and probably doesn't have the time or inclination to try and figure it out in the moment. But if it was mandated, criminal attackers would have a government guarantee that any guns their prey might have aren't very effective, which might change their thinking some. It doesn't sound like such a great idea when you think about it like that.
Even on the nation-state level, fake deterrence is something to be very careful with. A fake division of inflatable tanks and artillery pieces may be useful to fool an enemy with poor reconnaissance for a few days, as was actually done by the allies in WWII. But it would be foolish to take that example to mean that we should build an entire fake army with no real weapons and just depend on the enemy giving up to it.
I don't think I did a good enough job of explaining exactly why I think a .22 would be effective enough. Even though small caliber, low velocity firearms look puny compared to their bigger brothers, they're still powerful enough that the consequences of getting shot with one at close range probably, in 99% of cases, outweigh the benefits of whatever objective the attacker is trying to achieve, and if they don't, it's hard to conceive of a situation in which the attacker would be deterred by a larger caliber. In other words, I don't think there would be many situations where an attacker would say to himself "He's armed, but it's only a .22 so I'll continue". This is much different than a situation where the attacker knows it's an unloaded gun or a pellet gun or some other sham. That's why I'd hesitate to categorize it as "fake deterrence", since the deterrence factor is very real, just not quite as high as it theoretically could be. When I hear justifications from gun advocates for more powerful weapons it's usually along the lines of that a .22 wouldn't have the stopping power of a .45, or a revolver wouldn't provide enough shots or the ease of reloading necessary to involve a shootout involving multiple assailants, or some other rare situation. In most random attacks, the deterrence doesn't come so much from fear of the weapon physically being capable of stopping the person but the knowledge that even in the second-best case scenario, where the victim successfully lands one shot to a non-critical part of the body, it's going to result in a hospital visit and a chat with a detective. Out of curiosity, I checked the actual information available about the efficacy of various calibers in self-defense situations, and the benefits of going bigger appear to be marginal. I can go into it further if you'd like, but it's not really essential to my argument, so I'll leave it there for now.
I see what you're trying to say, but the issue as I see it is the assumption that all criminal attackers can be easily deterred. For the average individual in most places, the majority risk of attack is indeed the opportunistic thief. That's someone who is somewhat rational in that they have no particular reason to target you, they're just looking for an easy buck. If they see you as harder or riskier than average, say by pulling any kind of gun, then they're going to get out of there for easier prey. While these are the most common threat for most people most of the time, and probably the great majority of all, it certainly doesn't cover everything.
There's plenty of reports of attackers who are irrational and will continue to attack until dealt injuries that are immediately serious or lethal. These people may be serial killers out for the blood, or on lots of drugs, or mentally ill in various ways. They might be much more motivated to attack you in particular, maybe due to being an abusive ex or stalker, or a gang hit, or a mob informant, or some other personal grudge. These sorts of things may be a small minority of cases overall, but they're definitely out there.
From everything I've seen on caliber effectiveness, the benefits of going bigger are only marginal within the group of what's considered "major calibers". There are many reports of small calibers such as 22LR or 25ACP doing essentially nothing at all to stop an attacker immediately, even if they might need medical care later. I would be surprised to see data indicating that the difference between these calibers and, say, 9mm is marginal.
For these reasons, I don't think it's right for the state to mandate or regulate things like caliber of defensive weapons, since they can't easily know what threat you might be facing and what your needs might be. If you personally choose to carry a 22 because you think it's good enough plus light and cheap, and are willing to risk it not being enough someday, then that's your right. You're welcome to try to convince others of this, but not to mandate it IMO.
Although, to go back a bit, I think I'd be okay with some higher level of licensing or training being required to carry larger caliber guns. I don't think they do anymore, but Texas used to have concealed carry permits with different levels, depending on the type of handgun that you qualified with - I think revolver and pistol were the only ones commonly used.
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If how effective the gun is doesn't matter, why not go all the way and require everyone to carry unloaded guns? Obviously this would not stop anything, showing that it is necessary for the weapon to be effective to deter criminals.
It is necessary for the weapon to be effective, the question is simply how effective? There's a much bigger delta between getting shot/not getting shot than between getting shot with a .22/getting shot with something more powerful.
Would answering that question not require grappling with the "dozens of other problems" raised by gun advocates?
We can't assume that any gun would work in a situation just because shots weren't fired. The threat criminals are reacting to is based on what would happen if the gun their target has (or is likely to have, if they run before they identify the gun) is fired at them. This threat will change once you restrict the guns people are allowed to have to a less dangerous variety.
I can't think of a good way to directly measure whether criminals find a certain gun a sufficient threat to be deterred. Debating stopping power, limited capacity, and other such issues seems like the best proxy we're going to get for whether a gun is a sufficient threat to deter a would-be predator.
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What a mess.
Is anyone mainstream providing plausible defenses for this behavior? Either the initial censorship or the FoIA ass-covering. I am failing to empathize, here, and expect that the issue will be buried rather than defended.
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The sheet was providing anti-gun-control advocates with proverbial ammunition. They could point to it as an objective demonstration of the benefits of gun proliferation.
With this, the CDC is now, as you note, probably necessarily wrong (60k - 2.5M is a huge range to work with), but now the sheet doesn't provide a plausible amount that anti-gun-control advocates can use. So it moved away from the anti-gun-control position on that spectrum.
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Because they're going to do more "research" and not make the mistake of including the studies that make gun control look bad. This is an iterated game and we're far from the first iteration. 2A advocates have been watching government officials lie about lacking grade level reading comprehension for decades on this subject and things that looks like underhanded tricks are underhanded tricks 100% of the time on this subject.
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I think that going from "wide variability" without mentioning the range does matter on its own, even as someone that wishes Kleck was a bit more fastidious on his research. Not just that it's hiding or papering over data, though that's not great, but that a lot of mainstream activism relies on and communicates that these numbers are far, far lower than downsides like unlawful homicide or assault. GVA objects to even the lower-end estimate (60k) from the previous report for that reason.
And there a bunch of more complex issues, where to many people it seems like the desire to wipe the board and start again with new research coincides a) with the places with the greatest political disagreement, rather than disagreement with the merits, and b) where changes in political affiliation with likely researchers and with publications make it unlikely to see the same reads present, even if they were true.
On the other hand, I didn't write this up in June, even though I'd been keeping an eye on MorosKostas well before that. Nor did the Reload, even as its lead writer did.
Having a couple major gun control advocacy group specifically say that they want the number taken down because it undermines their policy goals, and then the CDC doing it because the gun control advocacy group asked, makes it a far bigger deal. This one is small, and not that aggressive, and ... it's the one they got caught on.
I don't think I made that claim; my objections remain if the CDC 'merely' revises their outreached based on poor arguments backed by Senators and the White House.
In a report that could not be recorded or presented to FOIA requests? Where none of these compelling arguments be summarized by any member? Where no 'expert' except the handful of the most bombastic gun control advocates were questioned, including the people the site had previously cited, about the matter?
Would you prefer I use the term 'buried' (or compare)? MorosKostas noticed this specific matter because The Trace used the removal here to argue as evidence that the study should be and was in the process of being re-evaluated.
I think you're vastly underestimating the available degrees of freedom for meta-study or literature review authors. Starting from whether such a broad literature review to note natively exclude data from before a start date is done.
Again, I don't particularly care whether it was #1 or #2 from your hypothesis, or that it's some excluded option (eg, the CDC bends to the first Senator to ask, and red tribers know not to ask because them doing this would be far greater a scandal).
At least in theory, it's a good deal of the point behind FOIA, although it can sometimes be excluded from FOIA under the b(5) exception (this is probably legitimate for the redacted 'drafts' of the new webpage). That's why there's 100+ pages that the CDC found responsive.
It's just that none of them contain a better argument than Hughes' insistence that his system was complete, somehow; most don't even contain a worse one. Instead, they're almost all about harm or visibility, or about The Trace asking on the topic.
That's the name of the underlying Kleck study.
That's the term of art used in the 2013 NASEM piece.
From the top of my search list:
the fast fact page which just had this information stripped from it,
firearms as a violence prevention topic without any mention of defense,
funding for new research that doesn't mention defense but does have a link to the 2013 NASEM report in case you wanted to dig a lot of pages in
a transcript of a press briefing where someone asked "I was wondering if this report addresses defensive gun use or justifiable shootings, which is a highly contested figure and is often used by outside groups as a political talking plan." (the answer was no).
a NVDRS preview pointing to 210 lawful self-defense cases.
a gun possession among youth paper
an Addressing Key Gaps paper that mentions defense only in the sentence that "In the self-protection model, adolescents are theorized to carry firearms as a means of self-defense because they reside in high crime neighborhoods..." [internal citations removed]
and a whole bunch more NVDRS previews.
There are no direct mentions of even the low-end estimates from the previous "Fast Facts" page, and there are no serious engagement with the concept. Does your search look different?
Because I think this is more serious a problem, from a perspective of social trust.
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So when was the last time that right-wing advocates pointed an issue out to the CDC and they made a change over it? If they’re unbiased, there ought to be some such instances.
So do you think they’re unbiased? Or are they biased and you’re just defending them on this point anyway?
Every individual piece of evidence is N=1, you can dismiss anything you want as long as you go one piece at a time. If you don’t see this as part of a broader trend then I question how much attention you’ve been paying.
And what on earth does its being leaked have to do with its evidential probity? If anything that makes it more reliable because people weren’t speaking guardedly.
Pro-CDC content like what? What is there lately worth praising the CDC for? What is its proportion to the blameworthy stuff? You can't just assert that it doesn't get posted as evidence the forum is biased if there's simply none of it to be posted.
Also, for someone complaining about bad evidence of bias, you haven't given any evidence of bias on the part of this site, you've merely asserted your own opinion as if that should suffice. By your standards, what we really need is a double-blind statistical analysis of a representative sample of every post on the site and the subreddit containing the word "CDC" in the past 5 years, compared to some privileged benchmark. Good luck with that.
But who's saying they're extremely biased, in particular? Plus they still caved - compare to all the times e.g. bureaucrats under the Trump admin just straight-up ignored instructions, leaked them to the media, then suffered no repercussions. I don't see how it's supposed to be evidence against bias that they didn't immediately do whatever, given that they did do it after a bit of cajoling.
Evidence is evidence is evidence. A small sample size is not as good as a large sample, but that doesn't make it worthless. Plus, the mere fact that leaking requires a motive doesn't mean it's necessarily biased. Any action requires a motive, but that doesn't make every action biased.
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They literally say that they’re making the change because otherwise it’d be too difficult to pass new gun control.
You seem to be correct here. I was one of those upvotes; I think I was probably just not thinking too critically about it. After all, this thread chain consisted of a reasonable summation of a probably bad-action, in a community that largely understand the decades of history here, and then you, being relentlessly tedious and nit-picky about it while making isolated demands for charity. I mean, can you empirically prove that no one in the CDC was motivated by the effects on the difficulty of passing gun control, and that no one in the CDC has ever said that? And if not, can you empirically prove that the "they" refers to the CDC, and not the activists who swayed the CDC? Have you tried coming up with more charitable explanations?
Sorry, but that "they" is an unspecified referent, so your whole chain here is just being uncharitable. Someone definitely did exactly what was alleged.
Are you familiar with the CDC's history regarding gun violence research, going back to the 90's? That was the "decades of history", and you don't seem to be aware of it at all.
The evidence provided is suggestive, and it appears efforts were taken to specifically dodge the FOIA requests that might prove it. Can you provide a cite of anyone here explicitly acknowledging that they're just enjoying a pep rally and booing the outgroup? Have you tried coming up with a more charitable interpretation?
Are you suggesting that the CDC has a history of political bias on this topic? It is my understanding that, between 1996 and 2018, the CDC was effectively banned from doing any gun violence research at all.
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I’d be be more inclined to agree if they hadn’t had such research and then removed it. Pretending that data doesn’t exist is worse than mentioning it but concluding the error bars are too wide.
There used to be 2 stats (60k-25M) and a comment (statistics vary). Now there are just two comments: statistics vary, and we want more of them. Combining a request for “additional research” with the silent removal of existing research is dishonest and suspicious.
So...sure, I’m judging the context. It would have been more acceptable if the current summary was used from the start.
It is? It certainly could be, but it's also pretty easily justifiable if you have a wide range of results and have good reason to think the extrema are low quality or otherwise unreliable. Notably, they didn't just jettison the 2.5M study for being low quality (despite that being fairly defensible on its merits) and report a narrower range that included the lowest estimate but not the highest. All in all, this smacks more of ducking controversy by removing an offending phrase than trying to hide the truth or sabotage gun rights activism.
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Could one find a better example of mission creep and infinite expansion of the bureaucracy than the CDC? The early history of the organization has a mission that I think makes sense for a federal entity:
...
This all seems reasonable enough - the whole point of federal agencies is to handle difficult coordination problems where state-level agencies or even interstate compacts would prove insufficient. Thinking about epidemiology, it makes sense for that to be national. Unfortunately, as these things tend to do, it continued to outgrow the role of handling communicable diseases:
So, as government agencies do, it moved from the original role into providing questionable dietary advice, risk-averse guidance on how to have a safe workplace, and (naturally) some opinions on racism. They kept the title Centers for Disease Control purely for branding purposes, long beyond their purview went well beyond what anyone would consider a "disease".
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Why does the CDC even exist? If they can't help with COVID they can't help with anything.
Trumpists should line up beyond a policy of disbanding as many of these institutions as possible.
And scatter the rest across a swath of cities. Keep congress, the white house and museums in DC and spread the others out.
The CDC is in Atlanta.
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Baby, meet bathwater.
I know this is your usual brand of hyperbole, but that’s not logically sound. Inability to solve a problem does not imply limits on solving an easier one. At the very least, they should keep posting stats instead of burying the one they don’t like.
It was the single most disruptive event of my lifetime by a margin. Not only did the CDC fail to solve it, they made it worse. And they lied a lot.
What are some good things they do? All I know about them for sure is that they are worse than nothing during a pandemic and they are controlled by people who hate me. Why should I need more information than that to have the opinion that they should be dissolved?
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There definitely ought to be some kind of punishment for astonishing under-performance.
The British shot an admiral who, in their judgement, 'failed to do his utmost' to defeat the enemy and accomplish his missions. There are various controversies about the circumstances, whether it was reasonable. But for the rest of the Napoleonic Wars, they got a very aggressive navy! They kept winning.
The CDC definitely failed to do its utmost.
https://www.npr.org/2021/05/21/999194177/early-cdc-coronavirus-test-came-with-inconsistent-instructions-cost-u-s-weeks
They also prevented anyone else making their own tests for a while. Amongst many other things.
https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2021/11/09/six_ways_the_cdc_failed_during_the_coronavirus_pandemic_802350.html
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The CDC has been politically active on the subject of guns for decades, the Dickey amendment, intended to slap their hands for playing politics on the subject of guns, passed in 1996.
They've been anti-gun enough that congress clipped their wings two decades ago, further surreptitious acts aren't a surprise, but hopefully will earn them a more severe clipping next time the republicans have congress.
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