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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   29720 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 12, 2022

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Will everyone who said he would walk away Scot Free because he's in bed with NYT or Dems or whoever please adjust your priors or whatever?

Will everyone who said he would walk away Scot Free because he's in bed with NYT or Dems or whoever please adjust your priors or whatever?

Why? Hopes of him getting arrested fell after the MSM were running what could only be described as kids' gloves stories (if not outright puff pieces), giving ample cover for the "it was just a mistake" scam he was doing. The media is owned by powerful interests in any society, and so how they treat a person is often indicative of that person's social standing (which isn't the same as their financial muscle).

Even leading CEOs in the industry, like the guy running Coinbase, was publicly admonishing the media for going supersoft on him. The fact that many people are surprised over this development is a testament to the extreme deference he was shown.

Moreover, it wasn't just the media. It took the authorities a long time to get to this. They now claim it's a slam-and-shut case of fraud. Newsflash: it always was. So there was likely deliberation, otherwise he'd have gotten arrested weeks ago as his scam wasn't particularly sophisticated, as the SEC now acknowledges.

What made the scales to tip over, we'll never know. But I am not willing to bet that he will be persona non grata forever. He may be stupid in finance, but he's politically savvy. Look at someone like Michael Milken. He went to prison for securities fraud and has now re-invented himself as a benign political benefactor. SBF may still have a few cards to play, even if he gets indicted.

Every once in while we get these triumphalist "this latest happening proves the game is clearly not rigged, where are all the naysayers now!" posts. Half of them end up being proven wrong within a week (the last one I remember was "see, Cloudflare is clearly standing up for free speech! It's not true the wokes control the corporate sector with an iron grip!", and I literally never saw a progressive "please adjust your priors" people adjust their priors.

If the "game" was rigged to an extent that you could avoid jail for large-scale financial crime by bribing a few democrats, there wouldn't be many big fraudsters in jail. There isn't a game that can be rigged or not, there's many very complicated aspects of society, some or all of which may be evil, but each so in complicated ways that allow society to continue and grow - the game is rigged is not a useful way to understand them. It's not just 'the libs/elites are good' or 'the elites are mean'.

Every once in while we get these triumphalist "this latest happening proves the game is clearly not rigged, where are all the naysayers now!" posts.

The person you are replying to didn't claim "the game is clearly not rigged". They are pointing out that the numerous predictions that SBF was not going to be prosecuted were wrong, and predictably wrong. I'm pretty sure I predicted that he would definately be indicted and go to jail. I predicted this because it seemed obvious that his connections would not in fact protect him: the case is too clear-cut, the public too furious, and there's zero benefit to be gained. I can't think of a single example of a democratic supporter being caught anywhere approaching this clearly, for a crime anywhere near as significant and clear-cut as this one, and actually being protected.

I personally believe that the game is rigged. But the way the game is rigged is that things don't get to this point. The rigging works at the margins, not by providing obvious immunity to blatant, high-profile criminals who've been caught red-handed.

SBF was 100% going to get charged. The posters here were reacting to the tender treatment he got in the NYT and Vox right after the scandal, compared to how those outlets and journalist personalities would normally treat a "tech bro scandal" (e.g. Coinbase, David Sacks, Joe Lonsdale). A lack of pure vitriol from journalists was weird, and on the part of NYT, was likely the result of a political editorial decision. But there's only so much damage control anyone can run for massive securities fraud.

Can we get away from the vague, mean-whatever-you want insults a bit?

Others may disagree, but I think this comment would be better with links.

Nope. At worst he gets the Trump treatment of a fashionably late pardon. Best case, an early release. Unless this guy somehow managed to screw over the wrong jews I don't think he will face anything real.

The SDNY is not well known for slaps on the wrist. He is facing serious charges and is high profile. They will go for the kill.

This. SDNY is where very ambitious lawyers go. They plan to then go into electoral politics, or to change teams and make a ton of money as Former Prosecutors representing the types of folks charged with financial crimes. The media attention on SBF surely has them salivating.

Tangent: as someone who enjoys books on financial scandals, remembering reading about a very hungry Rudy Giuliani when he went after Michael Milken, while watching hair die drip down his face in the parking lot of a landscaping business, was wonderfully tragic, in the original theatrical sense.

There's two indictments being read into the records: one is the indictment by the SDNY and one is by the SEC and CFTC. So he's in big trouble.

like many things, amazing how fast sentiment changes. When I made my post this morning, none of those people showed up

Granted, I didn't expect him to be arrested but we'll see if he actually does any time.

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