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PaperclipPerfector  18d ago (text post)   35128 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 3, 2025

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yeah but many of these people who are fired/quit are going to find other wasteful jobs , and also the severance $ by your same argument adds up to billions of dollars over a lifetime compounded compared to putting the $ in an index fund or something. DOGE will not put a dent in the national debt, but it does not need to. it's an effective rhetorical tool. Trump's successor in 2028 can cite all the cuts under DOGE as progress even if the national debt is still much higher.

Trump's successor in 2028 can cite all the cuts under DOGE as progress even if the national debt is still much higher.

I mean never underestimate the stupidity of the American people etc. etc. but if this really is what they're doing then all this implies is that the Trump administration are charlatans whom the people should hold in utter contempt. If they actually don't even care about the debt what are they even doing? Why are they bothering? Is the only animating principle of the modern American right to indulge their desire to punish the 'establishment' because of whatever chip they have on their shoulder?

I think you're wrong here. I predict DOGE will put a significant dent in the deficit. The fired workers will find other work, dip into savings, rely on their rich relatives, and just consume less. Some may even do something useful with their lives like become a nurse or manage a Panda Express.

But, who knows, maybe this will be the time that betting against Elon works out for the doubters.

Some may even do something useful with their lives like become a nurse or manage a Panda Express.

They absolutely will not do this, those are working class professions. They'll probably become public school admins.

I think you're wrong here. I predict DOGE will put a significant dent in the deficit.

Are you interested in attaching some numbers to your prediction? How much lower do you think the 2025 deficit will be relative to 2024?

Sure! Kalshi has the 2025 deficit reduction estimate at $227 billion, with 33% chance of a $500 billion reduction.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovtcuts/government-budget-cuts

Note: That's just this year. I think the big savings will happen in years 2-4, and this is tilted against DOGE since we still have to digest Biden's last meal.

Nevertheless, despite being very difficult to achieve, I think those predictions are accurate.

For the longer term, instead of deficits, I should predict spending since economic conditions will affect receipts. In 2019, federal spending was roughly $4.4 trillion. In 2024 it was roughly $6.75 trillion, an increase of a staggering 9% per year.

I predict that 2025 spending will be less than in 2024 (80% confidence). And I predict a mid-point of $5.5 trillion in inflation-adjusted spending in 2028.

No, that predicts a reduction in spending, not in the deficit. Whatever savings they do make will no doubt be eliminated and then some by the customary budget-busting Republican tax cut.

maybe this will be the time that betting against Elon works out for the doubters

I wonder about this. Espically because this is a scenario where Elons fate is not even completely in his hands. What happens if DOGE goes as well as it could but it turns out that the GOP figure out in 2028 that MAGA really was just a Trump personality cult and the Dems sweep back into power anyway? Do you think he flees the country? I can't see a world where they don't imprison/Deposses him at least or just kill him.

Dysfunctional infighting between the Texas state government and the federal government that winds up at the supreme court letting Elon off is what happens. Texas may not be a land of enlightened technocrats but it understands perfectly well that sticking up for oligarchs is the best way to get access to their money.

It all depends on how things shake out.The political situation in 2028 is so difficult to predict I do not even bother with the actual prediction just what I think will happen given one of the possible outcomes. I think in the worst case scenario for the conservatives/GOP (IE Trump really is the load bearing figure in the whole movement and it just implodes with him diminished and unable to run again) its very possible the courts are just packed and Texas can't do anything at all. I don't thinks that's likely as I don't think legal action is going to be what happens to Musk but I just don't know.

In practice, democrats getting the kind of majorities that in theory could pack the courts requires getting tons of moderates who would shy away from court packing elected. Now democrats can appoint super partisan judges, but it takes time for the churn to get them the kinds of majorities which allow unbridled lawfare against parties with powerful protectors.

I agree with you 100% I don't think the lawfare angle is likely against someone as powerful and wealthy as Musk. I don't think it would pan out and if it did it would have years and could be undone. I think for a lot of reasons if the Dems come back into power in a big way the "plane crash" , "heart attack" and "car accident" angles are far more likely.

I don’t think Musk really cares that much about that given projection of the future since he considers it probable that the singularity will happen in this term, at least. He’s probably more inclined to believe that Sama beats him to the punch and disassembles his atoms than simply being imprisoned by the next blob-appointed president.

Then it doesn’t really make much sense what he is doing (eg why care about the budget or defanging the bureaucracy if skynet will be here in two years).

Because a better starting point allows the slack to be pulled quicker if you’re not expecting a super-hard takeoff? Although I’m not sure what Musk believes with regard to that.

If you get a singularity soon, then this is all noise.

Elon seems far less on board with the ultra-fast ASI timeline than Sam or the Anthropic guys or even the Deepmind guys and Zuck.

I've had the same thought. I'd say there's a large chance (maybe 15%) that he gets assassinated in the next 4 years. He's taken billions of dollars out of the mouths of extremely corrupt, powerful people. It makes what Epstein did look like child's play. And he hasn't even started with the the DoD yet.

If a Republican doesn't win in 2028, he is toast. And I think it's going to be tough for them. Trump is sui-generis. No one can speak to the rubes like he can.

Musk is more likely to die in jail than in Mars.

Musk is more likely to die in jail than in Mars.

Aren't we all?

Musk is more likely to die in jail than in Mars.

I have said before and believe more so now that him going to jail is extremely unlikely. I think if the Dems rally and reorganize enough to take advantage of Trump being gone and actually win in 2028, then their new leadership would be smart enough to aim for the head with regards to Elon and not risk just imprisoning him.

Musk is a difficult target- this isn't joe schmo clinton associate here.

Elon is both not very good as assessing risk to his person and a very loud public figure. Assassinating him would not be very difficult if you had control of the government and a federal apparatus that supports his death.

And what do you think the result of such an action would be?

Musk gets a page or two in the history books along with thousands of other people across countries and time periods who played the game of thrones, lost and died.

Isn't putting him jail better than killing him since it's a more explicit demonstration of power?

Or is the risk that he would get pardoned and go for another cycle? To prevent that, they might go for the suicide in prison route or torture him via solitary confinement like they did to Bradley Manning and some of the J6 prisoners.

Or is the risk that he would get pardoned

Bingo! Yeah I think history is not really kind to people in the modern era that tried to exile people vs just killing them.

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