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naraburns  nihil supernum  16d ago (text post)   26860 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

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Polymarket is spiking to Trump at 90% Did something get called that I am unaware of? It looks the major swing states are still in play.

It can be modeled as a doubly absorbing matrix in which winning/losing a certain number of swing states of a 50% probabiblity confers an absorbing state. This can occur long before most of the votes are tallied. having a sizable lead on 6/10 swing states effectively means winning the election, so winning 5/6 of the necessary states leaves very little room for Kamala to win. or 1/2^5 odds

True, I wasn't thinking in probability.

NYT is projecting an 80 percent chance of a Trump win

But I don’t know I’m getting 2020 vibes, feels like deja vu. Someone know how this is different this time around? Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona all look like a toss up and could go for Harris

here is what happed in 2020 based on a screenshot of FTX betting market:

https://wp.decrypt.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FTX-Prediction-Market-U-T-D.png

The ballot dumps come in at 9:30 UTC , so in 5 hours from now

From memory Trump got to like 60-70% chance to win in betting markets.

I certainly am in the 'it ain't over til it's over' crowd. If looking at statistics and probability, since Trump just needs to win one state he's more likely to come out ahead than Harris. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised of midnight shenanigans.

I think the difference is that we don't have COVID forcing first-time-ever changes in election mechanics. Less of a chance for midnight ballots to show up and/or the probability of that is priced in.

That's the theory anyway.

The Dem and Media have called trump an asshole for 4 years about the “big lie”.

If nothing else, he has mobilized his supporters to be vigilant for election rigging. It will be harder to pull the same trick twice. I worry they have new tricks. But in 2020, people were confused when there were reports of vote tabulators being sent home for burst water pipes.

Someone said MI, WI and PA need to be won to allow Harris a path to victory at the moment. WI and PA are about 1% ahead for Trump right now with about 50% of those two states counted.

Edit: WI, MI and PA currently ahead for Trump in the count. Shitposters are memeing 'Trump built the Red Wall'.

If trump wins AZ and Georgia then Yes harris would need to sweep all 3 of those to win.

wtf, 90 percent.

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