edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
No bio...
User ID: 842
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
22d ago
I had a great and peaceful thanksgiving with my grandfather's descendants (RIP Grandpa) it's a lot of fun to be with the greatest family ever.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
24d ago
yes I was just adding more details as to who they were!
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
24d ago
Yeah that's fair. The thing is that disney owns many of the highest grossing media franchises and we may quibble about how much that correlates to "large media franchise" but it's really hard to find other measurements and this one is an easily accessible wikipedia page. of the 17 that are bigger than $20 billion 7 are from disney. of the 10 that are not Disney franchises
3 are japanese (Anpanman (Yeah wtf is that), Pokemon and Hello kitty)
2 are toy brands (Barbie and Transformers) (is transformers Japanese it originally is but the main seller now is Hasbro the american company, I'd probably count it in Japan but hard to say)
2 are western video games (Candy Crush, Call of Duty)
2 Warner bros Franchises (harry potter, Batman)
1 Korean Video game (dungeon fighter online)
basically once you exclude disney you're looking at a group that is 50% east asian franchises anyway, (counting transformers as Japanese). If you estimate like me that roughly 1/3rd of the media landscape is woke to some degree then the 2/3rds that are not are going to lean more heavily in the direction of the 1/3rd of the media landscape that is not western.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
25d ago
Yes. I think it's selection bias on the kinds of people who make games compared to other types of programming.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
25d ago
There are lots of non-woke games literally so many
It's just that you focus on some weird niche of american games, but the Japanese and korean studios make plenty of interesting ones. There are also american indie titles which... are actually pretty woke (I'm a member of many indie game publishers private discords and the politics channel is like Bluesky)
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
25d ago
Mega crit is An american group (of 2 guys) Anthony Giovannetti and Casey Yano, who live in Seattle.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
You can easily imagine such forecasts
for example imagine this forecast
Trump wins every swing state but nothing else (30%) Trump wins Every swing state plus some extra (5%) trump wins split of swing states and wins election (15%)
Harris wins every swing state (25%) Harris wins split decision of swing states (20%) harris wins swing states + some extra (5%) (where swing is GA, NC, Mi, Wi, Penn, NV, AZ)
basically this forecast would be 50/50 and forecasts correlated polling error being a very strong effect.
Thankfully the only agency that has ever knocked on my door is ATF
Look I'm giving you this advice under my real name, Bomb ranges are completely normal places to go if you have a Federal Explosives License especially for practice.
I literally typed "bomb ranges near me" onto google and pressed enter.
Sadly I can't be of much more help than that
It typically takes a while to get permission, but when you have a Federal explosives License (from the ATF) it's a lot easier to get allowed in.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
I had some fun trying out some of the army field manual on homemade explosives at the local bomb range. (didn't make all of them but made a few of the ones I've never seen before) I gotta say these instructions are dangerous though less dangerous than the Anarchists cookbook but boy safety was definitely not their top priority.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
Jake Paul manages to do his can crushing in fun and exciting ways by fighting old people who used to be good, MMA fighters who can't actually box as well as you'd expect Though now that he's lost his 0 (Honestly I fucking hate how Boxers value the "undefeated" mantle so much it doesn't mean much other than you ducked good competition) he seems to be more willing to fight real boxers.
Also isn't it next week?
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
Death toll
13k people died this year,
Compare to
26k isreal gaza war
52k Russo Ukraine war
GDP decline is 6%
Starvation unknown
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
Yeah it's mostly in the you've forgotten about category.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
What advantage does that one have over the actual IED manual?
TIL of this manual. I'll drive down to the bomb range and test some of those out when I get the time. I wonder how those will do compared to IED's made from Ammonia, formaldehyde and nitric acid. you can make pretty effective cluster grenades with that, ball bearings and a plastic coke bottle.
Yeah it's just weird that a war which has 1/4 the casualties of the russo-ukraine war, or 1/2 that of Isreal gaza has orders of magnitude less coverage
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
I consider that he's way healthier than the average 78 year old a big reason to give him lower odds relative to his life table, the "significant health event" angle does happen too but I think it still only gets him to 1%
With the election over it's time to talk about my favorite topic Wars you've forgotten about or never heard of
This war like many civil wars is in some way described as 1 major faction (national unity government) vs the military. However calling the National unity government one "side" seems a bit.. wrong. For example let's take the chin brotherhood the Chin Brotherhood seems to be nominally a part of the national unity government as does the chinland council yet these 2 groups are also opposed to each other. Another example is the Shan state army who is somehow opposed to the main government and allies of the arakan liberation army even the the ALA is allies of the myanmar government.
In spite of this being a messy web of weird alliances where everybody hates somebody on "their" side and nobody is neatly in any camp, it's still 2 broad coalitions fighting. What's facinating is how the rebels procure arms.
The rebels use 3d printed guns. They even use the GOAT firearm, the FGC9 (stands for Fuck gun control 9 milimeter) The rebels make IEDs and use drones to drop them like they are in ukraine. It's like the modern warfare meta has evolved to "tiny helicopters armed with explosive that I happened to find" as one of the main tools of engagement. The IEDs used by the insurgents are quite weak, but it's clear they don't have good manufacturing capabilities. Someone should get them The actual IED manual (a note to the FBI I am not intending for anyone to use this to commit a federal crime, this is for entertainment purposes only) This book is far better than the Lame Anarchists cookbook which was extremely poorly sourced and sloppily made. Instead use this guy who tells you how to make C-4 EDIT the us army has their own IED manual which is far better.
As a whole the rebels are actually doing much better than the were in 2022 and in some regards appear to be "winning" the war. However I put that in quotes for good reason. Honestly just reading about the war has been exausting, it's a constant strain of guriella tactics by the rebels followed by Junta counterattacks followed by chinese intervention. It's this weird state that's really hard to understand. I mean just look at operation 1027 A major offensive operation, with high Junta losses, followed by an attempted Junta counteroffensive that started getting ambushed by rebel forces A successful military counteroffensive, the chinese start getting involved (arresting people in the Junta they don't like)the The rebels get a large offensive going again, the chinese negotiate a ceasfire, junta makes some sneaky counterattacks during the "ceasefire" and another offensive beigns by the rebels. It's pretty clear that the chinese were essential to the rebels effort in this operation though how much we'll never know (state secrets and all)
The Rebel forces have definitely done far above expectations. Though my main scenario is that the Junta will control a much smaller fraction of myanmar and then the NYG will splinter off into a bunch of smaller factions who were previously united mainly by their hatred of the Junta. Evidence of the rebel's strength is that they are refusing the Junta's requests for peace and are trying to instead continue the war. But I would be surprised if this strength holds out instead of becoming another Syria like situation where after they defeat the main group they start infighting.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
Yep.
Actuarial life tables give him a 1.45% chance to die of natural causes in the next 90 days, Trump is healthier than the average 78 year old but he is fat and could have heart disease for all I know so I wouldn't give him non-zero odds.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
I mean actuarial life tables give trump a 1/100 chance of dying of natural causes in that time frame, those odds are a bit low if anything on actuarial life table grounds.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
man the 2020s have a LOT more in them than the 2010s. The 2010s were a mostly boring decade all things considered, Cell phones and the economic rise of china were the 2 big news stories of those times
2020s have
AI, COVID and the invasion of Ukraine!
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
It's weird that the Modal outcome happening means Silver lost.
(no seriously his forecast was that trumps most likely path to victory was sweeping all 6 swing states happening 20% of the time)
His other 3 forecasts for most likely trump victory being
Winning everything but Michigan and wisconsin, winning everything but wisconsin, and winning everything but nevada.
When you read deeper into his forecast as to how each candidate would win you see that it's basically "win by a narrow margin in every single major contest causing a blowout in the score"
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
Yeah this is pretty consistent with a small polling error where the polls said it was 50/50. Trump won every one of the 6 swing states because the margins on them were pretty thin.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
If trump wins AZ and Georgia then Yes harris would need to sweep all 3 of those to win.
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
So I remembered nate silver's "water level" comment from a powerpoint presentation.
From there I typed "nate silver" got terrible results then typed "nate silver talk" got bad results then typed "nate silver presentation"
I found a few links worth exporing (time> 20 minutes and clearly a powerpoint presentation)
I then watched the video at 2x speed mashing forward key until one of the videos had this waterline graph that I remembered then I pressed back until the start of that slide
note that the actual quote was at 29:30 where He said "I look for fields where that water level is low"
edmund-nelson
Filthy Anime Memester
1mo ago
Nate silver literally made this exact point 11 years ago
Today I present the weirdest mind in the gutter moment that happened to me.
I was listening to candy candy by a vocaloid, and right when the chorus happened I swear I heard the Chorus play out as "Cummie Cummie get me Cummie cummie sweet me feed me come in love, do me do me do-me do-me doo-me cutie cutie d-d-d-do me love Cummie Cummie get me cummie cummie sweet me feed me come in love do me do me do me do me do me cutie cutie so candy love" and ever since then I realized I can switch between that chorus and the actual chorus just by changing what I'm reading or by closing my eyes it's so weird.
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