site banner
naraburns  nihil supernum  1d ago (text post)   13504 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

13
Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

New York Times needle now predicting Trump to win the popular vote by 0.3%. That would be absolutely startling.

There goes my 'sure thing' Polymarket bet. But at least I'll make enough in crypto to be up overall.

Do you mean you made a crypto bet, or you just expect crypto markets to respond positively to a Trump win?

https://coin360.com/

It's a sea of green out here. Trump promised to help out with crypto (even launched his own shitty memecoin). Elon's influence should also be helpful here.

And stocks are green too, especially NVIDIA. Something underappreciated IMO is that someone got the Aschenbrenner Thesis into his hands and converted him, he was talking about how the US needs all this power for AI - he seemed enthusiastic about it. Elon and Thiel should definitely be in the inner circle, the e/acc Silicon Valley echelon is advancing at great speed.

imo btc and others will puke and retrace, but real lift off comes soon after that

They already are responding positively to a Trump win. Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high.

The expectation is Trump will enact pro-crypto policy. I think the probability of this happening is very low though.

Is there a reason, or just enthusiasm? Were the Dems considered more likely to increase taxes and regulation on crypto?

Absolutely. Republicans can be anti-crypto in power and Democrats can be pro-crypto in power, but it's still certainly a polarized issue.

I'm personally waiting for the postmortem gender breakdown between men 18-30 and women 18-30. While I wouldn't have voted for Trump for aesthetic reasons if I had a vote I also wouldn't have voted for Kamala for running a campaign that basically saw men only through the lens of what effects (positive or negative) they have on women.

You being unbanned on Election Day is really incredible timing. Welcome back.

Thank you, it's good to return to the old stomping grounds. You have to be a lot more obtuse on /r/SSC ...

It was trading at 25% ish before the election. Kamala's lead in Nate Silver's polling average was 1%, well within a single standard deviation.

Surely they just haven't yet baked California sufficiently into the pie... surely?

They absolutely have. It's a predictive model rather than just tallying up confirmed votes. In fact, rather to my chagrin, Nate Silver told his subscribers-only chat to just "watch the Needle" because it's got much better granularity than his own Silver Bulletin model for interpreting county results.

All I'm hearing in my head is 2020's talking heads lectures on the "red mirage." If it's not that, then it's just... 2016 all over again.

I'm still feeling very Nybbler-y about it all, myself.

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts. You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.


Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


New post guidelines

If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it. A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).

Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.

If in doubt, please post it!


Rules


Recommended Posts And Communities

Recommended Realtime Chats