sickamore
1mo ago
California has a little more than half the votes tallied right now, and the anti-crime Prop 36 is at 70% YES votes. If this holds, Prop 47 is basically repealed.
Notably, CA Gov. Newson campaigned against Prop 36, while Harris refused to give an answer on her stance when she was asked.
The Los Angeles DA George Gascon also lost re-election. He was one of the most progressive DAs and was a proponent of Prop 47 if I remember correctly. He was also DA in San Francisco before his LA stint.
Seems like a broad indictment against crime in California. Not sure how much change I expect to see in places like SF, but it seems positive imo.
sickamore
1mo ago
I saw that NYC went 1/3 for Trump. Getting 67% of votes is the worst Dem result in NYC since 1870 or something.
sickamore
1mo ago
Yesterday, I put down various cash bets around Harris winning the Popular vote. "Surely Dems win the popular vote regardless of the electoral college!"
I actually was convinced that I was onto a free money glitch by buying "Harris/Dems win the popular vote" at 25cents. I also put bets into "Trump wins 2/3/4/5/6 swing states", neglecting to even consider he wins all seven swing states.
Whoops, NOPE! I'm grossly miscalibrated. I actually did not have faith in prediction markets, and thought all "dumb" rep voters were skewing Polymarket/Kalshi etc. I'm laughing at myself that I actually thought I'm not at the top of the bell curve.
How do i get better at this? Some of my current thinking is:
- twitter / X is actually representative: I skew center-right, so mostly see pro-DJT/Rep tweets. I thought that's a bubble + history meant for sure popular vote. Not sure how much to calibrate the other way. Will I see same amount of pro-Republican views in 2028 even though it could very well swing back towards the Dems in 4 years?
- Betting against Elon Musk: Peter Thiel said "I would never bet against Elon... in anything. That's, sort of, hard rule number one". I think I will actually have to take this stance seriously, even though Musk is not infallible.
- Voter turnout number expectations:
- non-white voting blocks going towards Trump: I knew there's an undercurrent of latino and black guys voting for DJT, but didn't realize how much of the Latino vote he got. He didn't win the black vote by any means, but definitely out performed. Also, for whatever it's worth, the Michigan Muslim (and Arab in general?) vote. Will this continue, or will they flip flop back to the Dem coalition next time?
- I didnt like Hilary Clinton in 2016 and I had even worse feelings about Harris this year. How much does that matter to the election in general? The comments on Trump and JDVance's Joe Rogan appearances were very positive, but that is in line with the "typical" Rogan fan. Does that represent the 30 year old guy vote?
- I knew I lived in a bubble since i've only lived in coastal elite cities. At the watch party at a bar in my huge coastal city, everyone cheered for every Harris thing and booed everything Trump. I know the women feel that way, but do all the men too (or are they trying to get laid?). Two blond women did come in late and cheer quietly when some Rep senator won, but not sure if those two were tourists.
- had 2 data points from friends that their bucks county relatives all voted Trump, but I disregarded it. This one is hard since these friends are libertarian/center right like me. But perhaps next time giving more credence.
what else have i missed? Gotta think on this more.
Maybe I will do more small prediction market bets to hone my forecasting. Does anyone here know if this is a skill that can be honed and trained, without dedicating your entire life to it?
sickamore
1mo ago
JD Vance mentioned banning Pharma ads on TV during his appearance on Joe Rogan pod. Plus RFK maybe?
sickamore
1mo ago
imo btc and others will puke and retrace, but real lift off comes soon after that
sickamore
2mo ago
government should incentivize social goods. which is what RDOF is about.
sickamore
2mo ago
but drug prohibition in other places do quite well. Korea, China, Japan, Singapore, - in comparison US basically does not prohibit drugs at all.
sickamore
4mo ago
but why not assassinate in Qatar? qatar is sorta isolated in the Gulf - saudi/uae etc doesnt like qatar. Only thing i can think of that shields qatar is some nebulous relationship with USA, but even that doesnt feel very concrete
sickamore
6mo ago
FYI, there does not seem to be an actual "pact" or "agreement" for 50 years of petrodollar. (If you look at your link, it's not an article by the actual "nasdaq" but by some affiliate "tipranks")
China for example has been buying oil denominated in RMB since last year, this "petrodollar going away" isn't a singular event that happens.
US will still be the most used currency in world trade by some margin, though its share of the total will gradually decrease... probably.
sickamore
1yr ago
cuz US is on magic dirt, obviously.
if only those Indians in India could come stand on US soil, they’d become more competent in a flash!
/s obviously
off the top of my head: 1: are they paid ok by local standards? 2: do they have examples of promotion in their roles/teams/orgs, or are they all looking for the next gig on the side? 3: whats the management situation over there? affects everything listed here obviosly 4: hiring bar is low? 5: bad training?
sickamore
1yr ago
wow. this is leaving me with a lot to think about. Maybe programming wasn’t the right career, and i should embrace the management? hmmm
sickamore
1yr ago
hmm. I think I almost do too, but seem ok with shape rotation, though i’m way better at math. Interesting hypothesis
sickamore
1yr ago
the holiday inn apparently housed immigrants?
seems interesting what Irish people are saying. for example UFC Champ Conor McGregor tweeting to the effect of “do something immediately”, and more PC ones saying this is alt-right
Is there a reason we haven’t seen this kind of reaction in UK or France?
sickamore
1yr ago
Do you think people posting "Lies" are saying that because they remember, or even know, about these things you listed?
Not to say US / Israel / any other military are without blame for the lack of trust. I agree, US military has lied in the past, and the press/government/etc lied with it (possibly in other orders, like papers lied first, apparently, for the Spanish-American war). Not saying they are without sin.
But it does feel to me that the winningest move here is to not play at all (not fight). Failing that, don't say anything while playing and hopefully you win.
It's honestly kind of depressing how much information, proof, etc Israel/IDF provides, and still cannot win trust. Of course it doesn't help when random mid-level Israeli bureaucrats tweet random posts of unverified bs that then gets debonnnked.
Like the Shifa Hospital situation the last few days. Images and videos of IDF bringing in supplies etc for patients in the hospital: "lies, they didn't actually do this!" "just for the video/photo-op!" etc. Of course, they ARE purposeful photo-ops that are trying to counter the anti-Israeli perspective.
And then anti-Israel people will post some link PROVING that Israel "lied" in the past, but then you read the link and it is IDF claiming responsibility for some error. "This is why IDF definitely did fire rockets at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza" etc etc. And of course then pictures come out and ... onto the next story!
It's the same as how US public comms is treated. Oh US DoD denies the casualty numbers claimed by a militia that just attacked a US base? "Lies!" "This means the casualty numbers are true!" When US DoD says, in the same manner, in the same channels, that they did something that can be seen as detrimental, like say they suffered some injuries, like US base got attacked - then what US is saying is of course true.
Everyone here probably knows this and has seen it play out. I'm just a little, idk, depressed and ranty about this.
(and I'm not ruling out that Israel does / can/ has lied about military actions, and god knows IDF has done their share of morally bad things in the past. But there just seems to be nothing israel can do to win over trust. But such is the tiktok PR battle we find ourselves in today.)
((IMO: US, Israel, and any faction that finds itself in a conflict and viewed as the more powerful "oppressor", should just keep silent and never say anything. Did Saudi announce things when fighting Houthis in Yemen? Or Assad when killing hundreds of thousands of people? I am no)
sickamore
1yr ago
this feels similar to the claim that “Black Women are the Most Educated Group in USA”, when actually the stat is taken from the fact that among their own racial group, black women earn a disproportionate % of post-grad degrees. https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1720190597045100626?s=20
sickamore
1yr ago
Iran-backed militias keep striking US positions in Syria, Iraq, etc. By various counts up to 40-70+ times in the last 2-3 weeks. Another recently one I just saw - US denied the high casualties claimed by the possible assailants
In response, US has done a handful (3-5?) retaliatory strikes on those militias' positions. Apparently one of the strikes hit some IRGC commanders/troops. I also read that apparently Biden opted for lesser attacks, to prevent escalation.
Oh and US might unfreeze $10billion worth of funds to Iran? For some reason? Were the six billion dollars going to Iran through Qatar actually delivered, or held up?
On the Lebanese-Israel border, IDF continues to trade attacks with Hezbollah. Both sides have sustained casualties, though Hezbollah apparently has more (they publish photos of "martyrs" they died, on twitter at least).
However, it seems like the speeches by the Hezbollah leader has not been very inflammatory. Their once-expected entry into the war with Israel still hasn't come, despite these border skirmishes. Maybe the US presence in the area, with two carrier groups and other assets, is actually a real deterrent here? It definitely feels like Hezbollah has to say they are with Hamas against Israel/US, but won't actually put themselves on the line, perhaps rationally in this case. Would Hezbollah leadership be forced to do more or risk losing control of its troops? I read a theory that the Hamas operation on Oct. 7 was mostly lead by younger commanders, without the support of the higher up, older leadership. Could Hezbollah run into this situation as well?
What do you guys think the possibility of this Israel-Gaza situation exploding to include Hezbollah formally? What about US-Iran?
My take:
-
US-Iran will continue as currently, though honestly US forward positions in Eastern Syria and Iraq are not sustainable in my opinion. They should either be heavily reinforced, or withdrawn, as the bases there are mostly unable to adequately return fire or defend themselves IMO.
-
Hezbollah will probably keep doing what they are doing, unless something really breaks. Some Hamas leader just recently said that Hezbollah would enter the war with Israel if Hamas is completely destroyed, saying it's a "red line". Though I distinctly remember Hezbollah saying Israel invading Gaza was a red line as well that couldn't be crossed. But then again...
sickamore
1yr ago
also it seems like before, say in 2014, western journalists would post on twitter about Hamas operating in/around the hospital, but then immediately delete those posts. Unclear if deleting because of the abuse they received on twitter, or because of Hamas intimidation. Probably more likely from the latter.
It seems like western journalists are both less present in Gaza, and less likely to post about Hamas misdeeds online at all.
sickamore
1yr ago
It's highly likely Hamas has some significant operations based out of Al-Shifa Hospital.
If you read the history from 2008-9 and 2014 wars, every outlet from NYT to WaPo, organizations from Human Rights Watch to Amnesty International, have reported on Hamas militants being in the hospital, hamas leaders seen there, Hamas spokespeople talking to media there (using a fake backdrop of destroyed buildings), and Hamas using the hospital for torture and imprisonment (Amnesty).
Basically Hamas knows Israel won't bomb the hospital, which seems to be the largest hospital in that area. And thus, they base operations there with impunity.
In 2007, Hamas and Fatah fought in/near that hospital, though at much smaller scale (apparently only one wounded from each faction).
sickamore
1yr ago
oh this guy! lol. Wasn't this hearing so bad that he withdrew from the nomination to Norway?
Anyway, he's the current Ambassador to Greece, which given his Greek-background seems much more appropriate.
sickamore
1yr ago
He's a direct cited source in the Al-Shifa Hospital wiki page, specifically described in the 2014 war section and is the 31 and 32nd citations (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Shifa_Hospital#cite_ref-31):
American journalist Max Blumenthal was in Gaza during the 2014 war. Blumenthal wrote that doctors were burnt out after weeks of amputations and shrapnel extractions, with some "on the brink of insanity". One of the hospital directors screamed "Can’t the world see that we’re human?".[31] Blumenthal reported that many refugees had setup tents beside the hospital during the war.[32]
To be honest i haven't dug into it, but seems like he was added and cited as an anti-"Hamas uses this hospital as a base" voice? Even the citation itself seems biased, and doesn't even include the full book?!
oh yeah, I don't think we're in disagreement here. I'm just showing with the State Dept link that this isn't a secret.
re: McCain, that's funny, but also I'm surprised if Denise Bauer or whomever was trying to be the Ambassador to France had not been to France. Maybe makes sense if it's to Sweden or Luxembourg?
I think, and maybe also your point, that ambassadors to smaller-but-potentially-important countries might also not have been there previously. E.g. Jonathan Pratt was the last US Ambassador to Djibouti, and had postings from Pakistan, DR Congo, R. of Congo, Jordan, Sudan... but I highly doubt he'd have ever been to, or needed to have been to, Djibouti prior to taking up the post there.
Even below those positions (i.e. less known professional staff that support the Ambassadors and Consulate Generals), career Foreign Service folks are rotated around frequently in my experience (grew up abroad, had a lot of interaction with local consulate folks). For example someone who was the business/economy attache was moved to a post in South East Asia after 5 years at the consulate in my hometown. They got 6 months of essentially full-time language learning before moving over there to begin the new post, and of you go! Again, no reason they would've needed to have been to e.g. Hanoi or Phnom Penh before getting a post there.
sickamore
1yr ago
arent they doing that? remove hamas, demilitarize gaza like they did west bank. West Bank is much wealthier than Gaza.
holy smokes man, thanks for writing all this up. Very clearly explained here, appreciate the alpha.
You should definitely do it, I'm sure that, like me, many people would find this stuff fascinating, and there isn't too much public info on prediction market techniques and what not (except for very rare strategy posts on Kalshi regarding e.g. the Temperature markets - which mostly boil down to "read the rules, dumbass"). Obviously most of us here don't have the same resources as that French trader who commissioned his own polls, so comparing existing/past data and over/underestimation trends is def the way to go. 'preciate it!
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