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If Trump doesn't win he will go to jail (80% certainty). I think this might constrain his ability to run.
But I think he might run anyway. Contra the people who say he is senile (a sure sign of TDS by the way) he is still very energetic and funny as hell. Last night's speech at the Al Smith dinner was a banger. The guy had a crowd of New York democrats roaring in laughter.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XI0MUoW28VE
I could write some of the jokes out but they wouldn't do it justice. It requires a feel for the crowd and comedic timing that only a really talented performer can deliver.
He was fine. If you disengage from your partisan inclinations and watch Obama, Bill Clinton, even Bush I and II speeches they’re all often very funny and have good jokes. That’s what happens when you hire professionals to write these things for you. Trump’s delivery is fine. He does the job. He’s not embarrassing or bad. He’s also not great or anything.
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I’ll be honest, I found his speech at that dinner very grating. Yes, his speechwriters supplied him with a couple of mildly funny lines. The lead-up to those lines was 15-20 minutes of rambling, political self-promotion (I’m aware that politicians routinely attend these functions as part of campaigning, but the talented ones are able to be far more subtle about it than Trump was) and mean-spirited, unfunny jabs at Kamala Harris, Bill DeBlasio, and Chuck Schumer. Now, look, I hate all three of those people. I’ve said far meaner things about all three of them than what Trump said. However, that’s totally against the spirit of an event like this.
I’m not sure that Trump really grasps the purpose of a “roast”. It’s supposed to be compliments disguised as insults. Celebration disguised as denunciation. Love disguised as hate. And the disguise is supposed to be thin enough that anyone with a modicum of subtlety and tact can easily discern what’s really going on. Whereas Trump genuinely loathes the people he’s talking about (and to) so there is no warmth.
And perhaps that’s inevitable, when you invite powerful and controversial individuals (like Chuck Schumer, or Bill DeBlasio, or Donald Trump) to such an event. Maybe the “roast” style is just fundamentally unsuited to accommodate differences of opinion and interests this divergent. Certainly I’m not gonna weep for Chuck Schumer’s hurt feelings, or Kamala Harris’ tarnished dignity. As someone with a lot of genuine love for roasts as a comedic/social art form (and someone who has participated in a few of them myself) the whole thing came of as very unseemly and inappropriate to me.
Oh man I read this the exact opposite of you.
I thought Trump was extremely, savant level charming. It honestly made me sad that most of our politicians are so terrible.
Him pointing out that he wrote Schumer his first check, or getting in the jabs and stuff against Eric Adams (even if they were all pre written, which I doubt since it sounded very much like trumps “voice”) made it feel like there is hope that we can all actually get along.
Maybe this is just crack to me since I’m an upper-class-adjacent (friends and I are now scheming to buy a table at this event) Catholic, straight, cisgendered white male with a wife and children.
I loved this event last night. I am legitimately in afterglow this morning from it text back and forth with the aforementioned friends.
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Yeah, he's a bit of dick.
One interesting thing about this situation is that, supposedly, Trump decided to run for President when he himself was the victim of a mean-spirited roast by Obama at the Press Correspondent's Dinner in 2011. This whole thing could have been avoided if Obama had just resisted the urge. But it was too tempting.
Like Trump, Obama has great comedic timing. I laughed back then at Trump's expense much like I laughed at Schumer's this time. Being actually funny (a rare trait in politicians) excuses a lot in my book.
I totally forget my chain of evidence now, but I remember once seeing compelling proof that this isn't really true and is just a fun myth. Maybe it's because Trump ran for president several times before, maybe it was some leak from some insider who said it didn't make a difference. I guess it basically doesn't matter because the story that Trump ran to get back at Obama is so good that everyone in the future will believe it.
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It's pretty common in Presidents for the obvious reason that you have to be top 1% in several aspects of politics to get the office. The only modern President I can think of (say, post 1980) who doesn't have a reputation for being personally funny and charming was HW (and, maybe, Biden, although he supposedly had his charms before decline set in).
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The Zapruer Film of the 21st century. Obama had just given the order to kill Bin Laden. Seal Team Six was making final preparations as he spoke. The newly-released long-form birth certificate listed the time as 7:24PM, but on history's clock it was sunset, and the sun of the old world was setting in a dying blaze of splendor never to be seen again.
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I don't think he's senile. I think he's showing signs of decline. Clearly not as bad as Biden, but come on. It's not TDS to recognize the man is old and shows it.
TSD has always cut both ways. People literally think Trump was sent by god to stop pedophiles and prevent the obvious communist takeover of America or something. Of course he has all the normal age related cognitive decline for a 78 year old. Honestly, I think he's beating the median.
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I thought the same as you but today I heard a recording of him talking in 2014. I think his vocal pattern is just like that, regardless of cognitive decline.
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All I can see is what I see. When I watch events like the Al Smith dinner I see a person far more present and capable than Harris (who appears absolutely haggard to me in her rare unscripted appearances).
Let’s not forget that age 60 is not exactly a spring chicken either.
I do agree that the odds of Trump falling off a cliff in the next 4 years are non-zero. You can't cheat father time. But, no, it hasn't happened yet.
I've seen Trump look sharp and alert, and I've seen him ramble and spew word salad. Maybe, like Biden, he has good days and bad days.
Harris, after watching her Fox interview, I think really is just dumb as a post. And yes, it's ridiculous that she's the "young" candidate.
But I remain of the opinion that Trump at 82 will not be in any shape to run for president, let alone to perform.
It truly is amazing how relatively dumb the two dem candidates are. I’d peg both of them as having around 100-110 IQ points.
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