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PaperclipPerfector  5d ago (text post)   2050 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for October 11, 2024

Be advised: this thread is not for serious in-depth discussion of weighty topics (we have a link for that), this thread is not for anything Culture War related. This thread is for Fun. You got jokes? Share 'em. You got silly questions? Ask 'em.

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[comic sans]UAP DISCLOSURE UPDATES[/comic sans]

Some nice developments this week ahead of the hearings scheduled for November 17th.

  • Sitting Congressman Matt Gaetz said in a recent interview "The CIA has a program around craft recovery. It's not a question anymore. And so, that's probably where I would start, the craft recovery, and the biologics that have been taken from those craft". In decades past, this probably would have been sufficient enough by itself to be considered disclosure. But unfortunately, we're in a scenario where only certain government officials have become outspoken about their belief in UFOs, while the top brass at the DoD remains reticent. The smoking gun evidence / Big Announcement remains elusive.

  • A FOIA request has brought to light a heavily redacted briefing on UAPs given to NASA by the DoD's UAP Task Force. The briefing acknowledges that the UAPTF collected multiple reports of UAP sightings and that "over half" of these reports were validated by "multiple sensors", but the items in the list of "Potential Explanations" are redacted, as well as almost all of the included photographs (but for some reason they chose not to redact a photograph of a giant glowing green triangle).

A common criticism of the UAP disclosure movement is that their belief in aliens is fundamentally unfalsifiable and there's no reason for their demands to ever cease. They won't be satisfied that the military's not hiding anything until they've declassified every last document in their position. And I agree that this is a possible failure mode, which is why it's important to focus on concrete, actionable items rather than generalized demands for transparency. There are many classified documents regarding UAPs that we know, for a fact, to exist. Their existence, and the fact that they explicitly deal with UAPs, is not in question - we just don't know their exact contents. This includes the aforementioned NASA briefing, the photograph and other materials that Gaetz was shown at Eglin AFB, the multiple SCIF briefings that Congressmen have been given over the past year on UAPs, etc. Advocating for the full declassification of these materials is a reasonable goal, while also being limited in scope.

Until the alien is shown (in person, in a traveling exhibition, where I can maybe touch it or at least see it being touched), there is no reason to believe and every reason to disbelieve. That even the DoD and/or congress have people autistic/schizo/gullible enough to believe the US government (and NOBODY else) has been secretly keeping little green men on ice for 50 years is unsurprising. That otherwise smart people here might believe it is sad.

It just seems very unbelievable that beings that master energies enough to make to Earth from where-ever they came - and it can't be close because we'd notice them somehow already - get here, leave no footprint except some weird artifacts in US govt secret storage and then never show up again in any way. You mean if you look at human exploration, it's not really how it worked, is it? If somebody found some new land, soon tenfold of people would show up, then twentyfold, then hundredfold. Even if the original explorer died without relaying any message, soon somebody would follow their path, and then another somebody, and so on. I could find only two situations compatible with government holding any alien artifacts - a) aliens are very rare and very very far away, and they are essentially launching expendable exploratory probes (biorobots maybe?) at random directions, and one of the random directions intersected Earth but by some malfunction failed to call back so this direction is considered empty for the next N thousands of years until the next random probe arrives; and b) our vicinity is somehow marked in Common Galactese as "exclusion area, do not approach!" - either because we are under-developed, or too weird, or too dangerous, or any other reason - and would remain so basically until the aliens decide otherwise or we develop independent means of discovering them.

The situation even worse for the scenario where they show up, but only as vague images in blurry photos. I mean, a civilization which uses energies several orders of magnitude stronger than we do, dances around among us, and we notice nothing? It's like ants not noticing somebody trying to build a residential neighborhood on top of their ant pile. I think they'd notice pretty soon. They might not understand what is going on but they'd notice.

A variation: They did indeed signal back, but light-speed delay means that the signal itself, nevermind any follow-up-action, will not arrive for a very long time yet.

I'd expect anybody who mastered FTL travel also master FTL messaging. Though indeed it's not a given (I think Bujold universe had FTL travel but no FTL messaging, leading to passing messages with couriers). Without FTL, there's no point to even bother to send probes out.

Ah, sorry, I didn't realize FTL was implied but assumed that the aliens had slow-boated to Earth.

I want the reverse. I want aliens to dump a pastebin on a discord server and insist they are alien enthusiasts themselves trying to disprove skeptics on their home planet, with a 30 year timelag. I want them to here repeatedly over several generations and demand more exotic examples of human uniqueness because their own skeptics refuse to believe in the concept of extraterrestrial life.

Honestly I’d be much more inclined to believe if physicists could explain how FTL or even near light travel is possible without an entire planet’s worth of mass for fuel. And NASA or SETI finding signals of intelligent beings. Or you know those huge space telescopes, it’s going to make me interested if they find evidence of life and especially intelligent life in space.

I’ve never heard the History Channel Alien guy explain why JWT or Hubble never found an inhabited planet.

What do physicists or astronomers know about space? They can't even tell us the basic configuration of 95% of the universe's mass-energy, it's 'dark' to us.

Those huge space telescopes clearly aren't so great on a cosmic scale, we're missing so much. It's not even in the realm of unknown unknowns, it's known unknowns.

If we don't have a clue on the universe's basic composition, then we don't have the standing to rule out FTL travel. Our physics simply is not developed enough.

Try to set aside the question of aliens for a second and look at it this way.

The Pentagon gave a briefing to NASA on UFOs. This briefing included lots of pictures. They're telling us we're not allowed to see the pictures. So my question is... why? If they're not hiding anything then why not just let us see for ourselves? Yes they might just all turn out to be Chinese weather balloons made of swamp gas, certainly. But I still want to see and judge for myself. Why would anyone not want to?

I don't buy the "national security" excuse. The world's not going to implode just because we got pictures of an advanced spy drone. (Not that I get the impression that that's what this briefing was about in the first place. The fact that these photographs were in a briefing entitled "UFOs" instead of something more pedestrian is pretty odd!)

So my question is... why? If they're not hiding anything then why not just let us see for ourselves?

I don't know the specific briefing or photos you're referring to, but I'd assume it's because footage taken by military aircraft/etc. can reveal military capabilities or activity and is thus classified by default. You don't want to give away information about the capabilities of your cameras, for example. Meanwhile the footage which has been declassified is consistent with alternative explanations such as glare from a distant jet.

I don't know the specific briefing or photos you're referring to

The one I linked in the second bullet point in the OP.

footage taken by military aircraft/etc. can reveal military capabilities or activity and is thus classified by default

They chose to reveal some photos and not others, which leads me to believe that the content of the photos is one of the determining factors.

Okay, the images on page 9 of the briefing are from the declassified Tic Tac video, the ones on page 12 are from the declassified Gimbal video, and the one on page 13 is from the declassified Pyramid video released in 2021. So they censored every image that hasn't been specifically declassified and released previously. Note that 4 videos including Gimbal were leaked before being declassified, so it doesn't seem like they're cherrypicking the least convincing videos to release.

If you follow those links there's plausible non-alien explanations for each of those videos. For example, in the Pyramid one (the only one I hadn't seen before), the shapes are because of the bokeh effect on an out-of-focus light combined with the triangular shape of the aperture (which the Navy already knew when they talked about it in the Congressional hearing). However only one of the triangles was an actual plane/drone, the rest were clearly stars belonging to the constellation Sagitta. The flashing of the non-star also matches the timing of a plane's collision lights, and the USS Russell was directly under a flight path at the time. Which seems like a good reminder for anyone who puts a lot of weight on evidence just because the government is taking it seriously. Their job is to fight wars, not figure out all the weird-looking things that might seem alien-like, and classified information is going to be viewed by a lot less people than information released to the public. Naval Intelligence isn't nessesarily going to be very good at things like "checking if the UFO drone swarm happens to be the exact shape of a constellation plus one actual plane".

So they censored every image that hasn’t been specifically declassified or released previously

But that just moves the question back a step. Why did those specific images make their way to declassification and not others? No way to know until we actually see all the redacted images.

This isn’t an unfalsifiable “we haven’t seen aliens yet, but it could be that they’re out there and we just haven’t found them, so let’s keep looking”. This is, there’s a box right in front of us labeled “UFOs”, and I want to see what’s in the box.

there’s plausible non-alien explanations for each of those

Sure, I don’t disagree. But that has no effect on the fact that I want to see the rest of the unredacted document.

But that just moves the question back a step. Why did those specific images make their way to declassification and not others? No way to know until we actually see all the redacted images.

Well...

Note that 4 videos including Gimbal were leaked before being declassified, so it doesn't seem like they're cherrypicking the least convincing videos to release.

It wasn't clear what the "4 videos" was supposed to be referring to. If all the pics in what I linked were leaked before they were declassified then my bad, I was wrong.

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The reason why anyone should be sceptical of secret aliens is that there is no reason for them to be hidden.

If aliens had landed in Nevada in 1950, we would know about them. This is because the explanation that UFO fans have for secrecy (muh Cold War, muh secret ailyun technology) is bullshit, because any plausible theory of secret alien landings almost certainly involves the likelihood of them landing in Russia and probably China too, not to mention plenty of non-aligned countries without highly capable security states, thus rendering any fantasy advantage of speshul technology useless.

There is no evidence of [intelligent] aliens (…having visited earth in living memory).

I mostly agree with your viewpoint, but the alien enthusiasts have a simple explanation for the visitation pattern: nuclear weapons.

This would also explain ongoing secrecy about Aliens. If the Aliens have any degree of control over nuclear arsenals, then part of the illusion of world powers is shattered.

I do think we have had unusually good luck in that nuclear weapons have been used exactly twice in a real conflict and then never again.

I'm not sure, what nuclear weapons are meant to explain?

Why only visit certain countries?

Why only be in contact with certain governments?

Why only now and not earlier?

OK got it but how do they explain it? I mean, ok, they did not contact us because we didn't have nukes, and now they contacted us because we do have nukes. But why? Why nukes are so important? Civilization that can travel interstellar distances should have stuff that is to our nukes like our nukes are to a bronze spear.

They offer quite a few reasons:

  1. If the Aliens are benevolent then nukes are the first time humans really have the chance to extinct ourselves.
  2. If the Aliens care about habitable worlds we could mess up one of their gardens.
  3. Nukes might be more noticeablr to casual observers.
  4. Maybe there are threshold technologies required for joining some galactic community, and nukes is a threshold.

Nukes are unique enough.

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Human secrecy is easy to understand. That just makes sense to me. Panic, lie about it, now you can’t come clean because you’d have to admit you lied, etc.

Explaining why the aliens themselves would keep themselves a secret is a lot harder. Specifically, why would they hover in this grey zone, where it’s just ambiguous enough that people could believe or not believe. If they wanted to fully hide themselves then they could, and if they just didn’t care at all then they could come down and make it obvious, so why hang out in the grey zone? I don’t think I’ve ever heard a good explanation for this one.

But I’m not interested in UFOs because I think it’s all that likely or even all that plausible. I’m interested because it’s really weird that the government has a whole box of papers labeled “UFOS AND WEIRD ALIEN SHIT - DO NOT TOUCH”, and obviously such a collection of files invites suspicion.

Suppose you're a scientist in charge of establishing relatively orderly and constructive contact with a tribe of buttflap-clad cannibal natives, deep in some godforsaken jungle, who have never seen an outsider before. How do you go about it?

Do you hover over their village in a helicopter while they shit themselves, then jump out to say hello on day one? No way, they're either going to start throwing spears at you or bow down and declare you their god.

Maybe instead you start coming and going on the fringes, observing, letting their hunting parties catch sight of you from a distance. You peek down on them from far above, and if you see them burning you in effigy maybe you hold off on trying to introduce yourself for the moment.

Basically I'm imagining a machine intelligence a million years past singularity going "pspsps" at us like we're a cat because, while we're nothing compared to them, we're way more interesting than all the uninhabited space they usually see. Shitty movies about aliens trying to steal our oceans and fuck our women are the equivalent of buttflap natives building mock helicopters out of bamboo and ritually setting them on fire.

So just keep buzzing their little fighter jets and going "pspsps" at them. Don't even think of landing on the White House lawn and saying hello until they can all at least admit to one another that they see you. What's an extra century or so to you at this point?

If you talk about regular Earth scientists, then a reasonable way would be sending a person or two in a single boat to land on the beach, or just walk up to them on foot, let be observed and leave some easily recognizable usable things for them. Then if they pick it up, see what they do, maybe leave some more. Maybe they would bring some of their own to do a trade (even monkeys trade, it's basically built in). Once some trust is established, attempt personal contact. One may wear some analogue of a flack jacket, and in case things go really south have some snipers not too far but out of sight. But usually if initial contact was established the chance it will lead to immediate attack on contact in person is very low - if they were reluctant to contact, they'd just ignore your initial attempts.

Silent trade worked like that between peoples for a long time in history.

They might not care either way. If they only talk to or visit the people with control of the nukes, then the secret is secure that way.

Ok. But I specifically said that there was no need to get into general considerations about whether aliens exist or not. All I said was that I think the government should release certain classified photographs that they have, for some reason, of their own accord, decided to label as “UFOs” (UAP just being the new PC euphemism for UFO). This is a request that is specific, actionable, concrete, and limited in scope.

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