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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   2765 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 8, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

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Do people have any thoughts, questions on forecasting stuff?

Some things I'd love to have some back and forths about:

  • How to model the chance that North Korea will detonate a nuclear bomb by end of year?
  • Chance that monkeypox will spread to the West? Distribution of expected deaths?
  • How to model the spread of conflict? How to model which states matter in the world?
  • What will happen with Bangladesh?
  • Some states are three families in a trenchcoat. What's up with that? Particularly in the case of Pakistan: it's a nuclear state, but it also just has a lot of difficulty projecting power into rural areas...

Some states are three families in a trenchcoat. What's up with that? Particularly in the case of Pakistan: it's a nuclear state, but it also just has a lot of difficulty projecting power into rural areas...

South Asia just has a level of inequality unimaginable to the rest of the world, with a small elite (in relative terms, they still consist of tens of millions of people) capable of developing nuclear weapons, running a space program, standing toe-to-toe with the West and East Asia in every field of intellectual achievement, and doing everything else you would expect of a developed nation (other than keeping the streets clear of filth) living alongside a much larger population still mired in conditions that range from "bad by Latin American standards" to "bad by Sub-Saharan African standards."

Pakistan has the additional challenge of many rural areas being inhabited by clannish groups that will violently resist any perceived imposition by outside forces on their tribal way of life, and as the ruling class is just barely holding together some semblance of a state with guns, duct tape, and prayers, it has more important things to worry about then e.g. getting polio vaccines to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Single best book for this, imho, is Geopolitical Alpha by Marko Papic. The "constraints based" modeling approach, I think, gives a more consistent framework to forecasting than a lot of the more ad hoc reasoning you see elsewhere.

Then, the basics of compound probabilities and basic Bayesian reasoning. It's not about building a model that get's everything right, it's about building a model you can interrogate and update well as new information arises.

Geopolitical Alpha by Marko Papic

Thanks!

How to model the chance that North Korea will detonate a nuclear bomb by end of year?

On foreign soil 0. Making another test - close to 0. The world has forgotten they exist, they win nothing in grabbing attention.

Chance that monkeypox will spread to the West? Distribution of expected deaths?

Probably 100 to get at least some cases. Extremely low death count, probably concentrated into fisrt gen third world immigrants and immunocompromised people that lead risky lives. Everyone is vaccinated against smallpox in the west and it provides at least some protection.

How to model the spread of conflict? How to model which states matter in the world?

Magic 8ball is your best bet. The world is moving towards readjustment of the balance of power. It may go totally peacefully, absolute bloodbath or a series of local flare-ups that are contained. We are not exactly in 1914 - I don't think anyone want a real war, but things may get out of control.

What will happen with Bangladesh?

Probably nothing. Modi doesn't want short victorious war right now, so probably will ignore some harassment of Hindus there. The country doesn't seems to move towards civil war, so whomever is in power will probably try to keep things under control too.

Some states are three families in a trenchcoat. What's up with that? Particularly in the case of Pakistan: it's a nuclear state, but it also just has a lot of difficulty projecting power into rural areas...

Nuking a village is a waste of resources. As long as the area 5 km around centaurus mall is safe and under control they mostly don't care.

People are vaccinated against smallpox? I'm not.

Are people still being vaccinated for smallpox?

The smallpox vaccine is no longer available to the public. In 1972, routine smallpox vaccination in the United States ended.

In 1980, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared smallpox was eliminated. Because of this, the public doesn't need protection from the disease.

In my corner of europe yes.

Everyone is vaccinated against smallpox in the west and it provides at least some protection.

Didn't routine vaccination stop in the late 70's/early 80's after smallpox was eradicated, leaving younger generations unprotected?

Yes, that’s the case.

Because of the virulence of vaccina, the virus used to inoculate against smallpox, smallpox vaccines are more dangerous than most other kinds of immunizations. For example, I have chronic eczema, and so it would be a very bad idea for me to be vaccinated against smallpox — there’s a risk of vaccina infecting the skin and causing a major infection.

And it should be noted that we’re seeing a dramatic increase in eczema… so if there were to be a monkeypox pandemic, there’s a huge chunk of the population that couldn’t be safely inoculated with the old smallpox vaccine.

I assume you're including tests in the first portion? It doesn't look like they have all that many nuclear weapons.

Monkeypox is currently mostly an STD, especially between men, right? I imagine, then, you could look at the spread of past STDs. Not sure how you'd try to account for evolution of the disease.

States mattering seems ordinarily to be due either to economic power, or to willingness and ability to use or threaten violence in a way that would have an impact on the global economy (e.g. North Korea, Houthis). Are there other major factors? Israel seems like it might be cared about more than by that simplistic analysis. No idea how best to model all that. Clearly culture is big for willingness to use violence.

Yes, the overwhelmingly most likely case is as a test.

Monkeypox is currently mostly an STD, especially between men, right?

Nope, this was the previous strain. This one seems to be spread by close contact as well, e.g., in families, corpses, etc.

Exporting technological and social innovation is another factor I care about. E.g., the Germans experimented with tanks in the Spanish civil war, and this affected the next war; similarly, I'm thinking about how much to care about Ukranian advances, or about conflicts in Africa developing strategies that are then exported to other conflicts.

The DRC had 2,662 cases over the past week, 25 of them fatal. Of cases this year, 58% occurred in children younger than 15,

From: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/mpox/mpox-escalates-africa-officials-launch-response-plan

This one seems to be spread by close contact as well, e.g., in families, corpses, etc.

So is it like Ebola now where ”don’t insist on completely braindead burial customs” is enough to prevent an epidemic?

Ehhh...

It's in some spectrum between Ebola and smallpox. Largest than the largest Ebola outbreak, much smaller than smallpox.

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