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PaperclipPerfector  4mo ago (text post)   38813 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 15, 2024

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Debates do not matter that much. Even Biden's polls did not budge after the worst debate performance ever. Swing states are what matter, and this is why trump will win. Her problem is that expectations will be higher compared to Biden.

How do you reconcile this statement with what has unfolded over the last month or so?

If debates didn't matter, Joe Biden would be still favored to win the election in November.

meant in terms of polling. 538 unchanged

538 isn’t the five thirty eight of old. See Nate Silver’s recent post.

so what? does not change my point that biden did not see a polling decline after bad debate performance

There was a decrease. By about a point or two. That’s big when Trump already had a lead

That does not answer the question.

Ill ask again how do you reconcile your claim that debates dont matter with the observation that Biden's poor debate performance effectively killed his chances of winning the election come November?

my original post explicitly mentioned polling

Then we can reasonably surmise that to the degree that "debates don't matter" polling matters even less.

Serious question why are people quoting 538 at this point? Didn’t they recently have Biden up on Trump and it all boiled down to incumbent advantage?

I haven’t tracked them but it feels to me like that’s gone down as a purely partisan site at this point. Nate Silver himself has recently trashed 538. Now 2 people in this thread quote them?

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1814062597152600198?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ

then what polling site is more accurate? even if the model does not work as well or nate is a partisan hack, the data clearly shows biden did not lose approval points after his bad debate

538 is a model, only slightly based on polling

Are you serious? Biden got kicked out by his party after the debate. Debates definitely matter.

meant in terms of polling. 538 unchanged

You should use this as an opportunity to re-evaluate your esteem of 538. Nate Silver left and it’s not what it once was.

OK, debates matter if they reveal your staff and inner circle has been engaged in a years-long conspiracy to hide the fact that you're non compos mentis and probably aren't actually capable of exercising the powers of your office consistently - let alone engaging in the strenuous work of campaigning.

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