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PaperclipPerfector  4mo ago (text post)   37982 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 8, 2024

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Easy. Dems invoke the 25th. He can’t survive that.

Dems wouldn't survive that either. It could destroy the party.

Ironically, he could in theory:

  1. assuming the VP and executive branch heads declare POTUS incompetent,
  2. POTUS can simply transmit to Congress that he is in fact competent
  3. VP and executive branch heads now have to reassure Congress that POTUS is in fact incompetent
  4. Congress now gets to decide the issue. They have to declare by a majority that POTUS is in fact incompetent
  5. Hilariously they might not (Republicans have majority in the house and might prefer Biden running)
  6. if POTUS retains seat, all the cabinet heads might roll at this point (which does create some liability for cabinet members at steps 1 and 3).

At least, this is my read of the 25th, but it's past my kid's bedtime, so I might be missing something.

Republicans can’t declare Biden competent and survive politically. I’d guess the house declares Biden incompetent and there’s drama in the senate, clear majority for removal but getting to two thirds might be a stretch.

I think they could: everyone would know that it was about winning the election in 2020, so their base would think it was hilarious. "You ordered it, you eat it" etc.

But who knows. The next-level play on their part in this situation would probably be to try to stall the entire thing until POTUS is irreversibly on the ballot and then go for removal. Right now I don't think they could stall that long on the 25th but give it another 30 days and it looks like they would be able to do some damage that way.

They can vote "present" and make the Democrats get a supermajority on their own.

Republicans can do anything and survive politically. We've seen it fifteen times in the last ten years.

Yes there is a constitution to adhere to etc etc. But when your own party says “you aren’t mentally fit” no way you can win an election.

I'd add to your number 4 that it's not just a majority that has to find him incompetent -- it's a 2/3 supermajority in both houses, a stricter requirement than impeachment. If he needs to go and he won't choose to go, the easier path is to impeach and remove him that way -- no need for cabinet drama.

But I also posted my own take on the 25th idea in a subthread but it got buried. Here's my take:

Invoking the 25th would make Democrats look weak and their administration look incompetent. Because it would be a declaration that its headman is incompetent, in the literal meaning of the term. Invoking the 25th also normally requires the consent of the President -- that's the only way it has been used in the past -- and to do it over his refusal would require a whole rigamarole where the Cabinet tries to argue with the Congress and Biden attempts to convince them he's actually competent.

It would be an absolute shitshow of constitutional and political maneuvering that would make even the most insane Brexit deliberations across the pond look like normal legislative operations, with the executive fighting against itself and the Congress held up from all other activity while members get prime time TV slots grandstanding about the administration. In the worst case, this would lead to the nuclear football being tossed back and forth between Biden and Harris like an actual football.

If they have Biden's consent, he can just do the normal, expected thing and resign. Which would also put Harris at the top of the ticket, but at least without the insane constitutional boogaloo that the 25th Amendment process would require. But the 25th Amendment process is pretty involved, to prevent coups. Harris can't just up and declare herself the Big Cheese.

The 25th invocation suggestions aren't a serious threat to Biden.

Republicans voting Biden as competent would be an excellent news cycle (for dramacoin).

We are exercising all these dusty parts of the constitution, maybe we can have a convention in my lifetime.

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