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PaperclipPerfector  6mo ago (text post)   24828 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 6, 2024

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The lady in that video got on my nerve. She managed to compress so many bad economic ideas and implications into such a short few sentences.

I also had to double check the date on that video. Is someone seriously asking after the last few years why we don't just print more money? Have they been to a restaurant or bought anything recently? We did the experiment during covid of just 'printing more money' and then we had record setting inflation.

There is also the rather basic idea that if you expect to be paid back in X currency in the future then you have a vested interest in that currency maintaining its value. Its a way of signalling commitment to the future value of the currency. Its like a CEO offering to only be paid in stock options that don't vest for a few years. It would signal they are confident in the future success of the company.

Wait, she's the one who's the problem, and not him? I thought she was just trying to bring up the problem that those who profess that we can just print money and not worry about debt don't understand why we borrow, showing that there's a problem with their model.

She's the wacky MMT advocate who thinks you can just print money to get out of any fiscal problems. He is a very progressive and fiscally liberal, but mainstream, economist who thinks that printing money and borrowing money have very different effects on inflation.

I checked, and yeah, you're right.

Together they fight crime?

I can't even tell what the dude is saying. He is stuttering and mumbling and talking in circles.

"I'm waiting for someone to stand up and say: Why do we borrow our own currency in the first place?"

The way she phrased it made me think she was saying it is ridiculous that we borrow our own currency. But yeah maybe I am just totally misinterpreting her tone.

I checked; I'm wrong.

The great thing about printing money here in America is that we are the USA USA USA baby! Everyone takes our dollar, they take it for oil, for oranges, for tungsten, for cars, for iphones. We print it up out of thin air and they give us real goods for it every day.

The higher the trade deficit the more they are getting ripped off by exchanging real goods for dollars. Even with all the printing we are still experiencing a strong dollar and less inflation compared to other countries that don't have the backing of the US economy and 11 carrier strike groups.

Look at any currency vs the US dollar over the last 4 years. The dollar is as strong as it has ever been. MMT is a brilliant scheme for extracting real material and goods from the rest of the world in exchange for protection and promises. It is crazy that we get away with it! USA USA USA!

Did you notice the accelerating pace of people accepting things which are not the dollar to trade internationally?

No. And neither has the dollar.

This might run out, with devastating effect, some day.

If people lose confidence in the US dollar, suddenly they'll try to get rid of it, leading to an increase in domestic supply and dramatic inflation, and foreign goods in general will be much more expensive.

It might, when someone else has 11 carrier strike groups. It won't be in our lifetimes.

But how much does that actually matter to the value of the dollar?

My guess would be that the general value prospect to people and countries abroad of holding dollars are that:

  1. Dollars have low inflation, so they're one of the better currencies to sit on.
  2. The US is fairly reliable, as nations go, so it can be expected to remain stable.
  3. Dollars are useful for trade with the US, and the US is an important part of the world economy.
  4. Other places and people want dollars too, so they work well as a currency.

But if 1 fails (due to, say, running out of people willing to finance US debt, meaning that we need to start printing money to fund things or pay back debtors), then some will drop the US dollar for other currencies. This will drive down the cost of the dollar, that is, cause inflation, which will lead to more of the same.

I don't expect 3 and 4 to go anywhere, but I think 1 and 2 could change, in a way that would meaningfully affect demand for dollars, and hurt US prosperity.

That said, that's mostly just from me thinking things through myself, not something better vetted, so is there some reason that I'm wrong, or something I'm missing?

Anything could happen, but it hasn't. People have been predicting the demise of the dollar for 60 years, from weird baskets of BRIC currency to crypto, to gold. It only gets stronger! It is interesting that people are always calling for the fall of the mighty USD and yet when I travel these days I can only buy more and more with the same amount of cash! Call me when that changes.

I don't expect the demise of the dollar before the US comes close to defaulting on its debt, which is still a ways away. But the deficit's steadily been growing relative to GDP. (And even then, I don't expect a total collapse.)

The US will never default, we are in a better place than all other countries, hence the strong dollar. Unless you think all other players are totally irrational investing in it? If we are defaulting, the rest of the world has already fallen apart and it doesn't matter. Like people who buy gold for the apocalypse...when what you really need is beans and bullets.

The US will never default, we are in a better place than all other countries, hence the strong dollar.

Okay, the US won't default, but at some point it'll need to start printing money, at least, to avoid it.

That is:

The US wants to pay for stuff.

To raise funds to do so, it sells bonds.

Demand for bonds is not limitless.

US spending keeps growing.

Eventually it will hit the limit of those willing to buy US debt.

At that point, it must either print money to pay for things, or fail to pay for things (that is, default).

Unless you think all other players are totally irrational investing in it?

It wouldn't surprise me. But really, all you need to buy a bond is just to think that things will be fine within the lifetime of the bond, which is entirely possible even if you think it's going to collapse in a few decades.

If we are defaulting, the rest of the world has already fallen apart and it doesn't matter. Like people who buy gold for the apocalypse...when what you really need is beans and bullets.

I see no reason to think the former is true. And the latter depends heavily on what kind of apocalypse you're in.

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Or if one of those gets sunk by hypersonic missiles. Or if you run out of people to con into manning them in exchange for IOUs.

I think it's quite reasonable to put a decent chance of dollar collapse happening within the next 50 years actually. Especially now that the dam of signing oil contracts in other currencies has broken. Though I'm still betting on Japanese style long term containment.

It becomes more likely if NATO decisively loses the Ukraine war. When force is the only thing backing the entire system, any large display of weakness is a potential black swan.

Lots of hypotheticals here. The dollar has only become stronger over the last 20 years despite rumors of demise. So forgive me if I take this with a huge grain of salt.

I'm not saying it's gonna happen. Again my base case is USD becomes JPY 2. But if you're not banking on it being possible you're taking an irrational risk in my opinion.

Also the dollar is insanely weaker in real terms than 20 years ago. Anything with an actual backing would trample over it. The only question is whether the people emitting an alternative could survive the wrath of the US Army.

You're the only one. The dollar is stronger than ever against all other currencies, anything that takes the dollar down will mean the end of the financial world first.

In "real terms" it is stronger than ever compared to all other currency; if your talking about inflation which is normal, expected, sought after, and planned for, then yes, it has inflated, like it is supposed to, to keep money moving.

If you understand monetary policy at all you don't want something that never changes in value or deflates, that just leads to hoarding and doing nothing.

Unless you're some kind of silver/gold late night TV guy then this is all common knowledge.

Ah, an other private account so I don't even know where you're coming from on issues. TheMotte should do away with that feature.

stronger than ever against all other currencies

All currencies except Bitcoin and gold. Non-fiat ways of storing wealth are all doing very well compared to the dollar. Why are equities priced so highly? Why are houses so expensive? Because the real value of each dollar is shrinking, purchasing power is shrinking.

This may come as a surprise to the 'monetary policy' community but things are supposed to get cheaper, not more expensive. New technology should improve production processes. TVs have gotten cheaper, as have computers. Even if technology is mature like burgers, it should stay roughly the same price, ceteris paribus. But a great many things have rapidly risen in price due to money-printing, which has caused considerable alarm amongst policymakers along with economic stress.

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