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Notes -
Israeli missiles hit site in Iran, ABC News reports
Iran’s military response will be ‘immediate and at a maximum level’ if Israel attacks, foreign minister says
Questions:
If you predicted a nothingburger - how are your predictions holding up? Is there still an offramp here where we can avoid further escalation, or could this evolve into a full on ground war? It's not clear to me if Israel's military could be stretched enough to handle a conventional war on multiple fronts.
Also, what does this indicate for the future of the US-Israel relationship? The US administration made it pretty clear to Israel that they didn't want them to retaliate against Iran (the going theory seemed to be that it would be bad for oil prices in an election year). Presumably Israel is feeling some real existential pressure right now if they're willing to openly defy the will of the US, one of their only consistent allies on the Palestine issue.
Seems part of the theatrical tit for tat that’s been ongoing for a few days now. Everyone recognizes that taking out the IRGC general directly involved in funding and planning October 7 was a legitimate military act. Iran needed to save face, now Israel does.
Israel can’t destroy Iran’s nuclear program from the air. Iran’s nuclear facilities are specifically designed to be resistant to US or allied air strikes. They’re deep underground, fortified and highly dispersed.
Right now it’s still a nothingburger, neither side is capable of destroying the enemy’s government. Neither side is capable of fielding a viable ground invasion for now. All they can do is kill a few of the enemy’s civilians by air, and possibly some performative strikes on military targets.
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Looks performative for now.
I’ve seen reports Iran gave the US flight paths for prior attacks to make sure everything was shot down.
The funny thing to me is there is some Air Force pilot somewhere whose highlight of his career is shooting down missiles the enemy gave him intel on just begging for someone to fuck up and give him a real mission like engaging some Iranian pilots and bombing a nuclear base.
Iran did not give its biggest enemy detailed intelligence on its attack on its other biggest enemy, so as to eliminate the effectiveness of its attack, which was in response to having one of its top generals obliterated in what was legally a diplomatic safe zone.
Y’all motherfuckers are delusional if you think Iran is LARPing the desire to harm Israel.
It’s also hilarious when intelligence successes lead to conspiracy theories that the Iranians just told the US in advance exactly what they were doing.
The Iranians are not insane warmongers. They are at least semi-rational actors interested in achieving their aims, alongside self-preservation.
But, they really do want to get rid of the state of Israel. They have spent a lot of blood and treasure over decades towards that goal. It’s not an act.
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I'd like to think that if I was a fighter pilot I would be able to look on the bright side and appreciate it, even if I never got to engage enemy fighters or whatever. But maybe it's the equivalent of "if you'd be satisfied with a million dollars you don't have what it takes to make it".
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It's early, but oil and gold futures suggest that Israeli's attack was either performative or (as Iran claims) foiled. Perhaps this will be the equivalent of two untrained men attempting to fight each other but largely failing to do any real damage.
Nothingburger is looking good for now, but obviously this attack increases the risk of more tits and tats until something breaks.
Of course, the incompetent brawl is only funny if neither side accidentally hits the pavement and dies.
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Previous wondering aloud: from a game theory POV, if you have a huge advantage over the other party you should really hit them back 10x harder to discourage them from messing with you ever in the future. This works as long as your adversary is sane enough to respond to incentives.
Is this Israel striking back 10x harder? Not sure yet. Iran denies anything substantial happened, which could be a face saving measure since they're in no position to retaliate impressively.
Either way, Israel using Iran's drone attack as an excuse to wreck a ton of Iran's nuclear facilities would be very well played.
Israeli's rather weak sauce attack could be an attempt to provoke Iran into a more serious attack of their own. That would give Israeli political cover (and U.S. support) to do the needful and remove Iran's nuclear threat.
Part of me thinks that was the play all along, but Iran bungled its attack so badly that it didn't give Israeli enough of a casus belli. Now Israeli wants a redo.
Is it even good to remove Iranian nuclear capabilities? Part of the geopolitics for Iran is if shit ever hits the fan they can get nukes fairly quickly to prevent an attack on the homeland. You change a lot of security arrangements if that is not true.
Russia having nukes is a big reason why the US could enter the Ukraine war and it wouldn’t existential to Russia because they guarantee the war would never come to Moscow.
Yes. Iran is a rogue state, an Islamist dictatorship, and a source of funding for terrorists. The world is a much better place if they DON'T have nukes.
If nothing else, the current equilibrium is mostly stable. Probably best not to overthink the value of non-proliferation.
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You’re asking if the Iranian army would be able to march 500 miles through two countries over open terrain despite Israeli-American air supremacy to invade Israel?
Iran has between forty thousand and a hundred thousand proxy troops parked on the Israeli border, not counting the Syrian army. It could turn into a ground war real quick.
Most Iranian proxy forces have to contend with complex domestic politics of their own, the Shia militias in Iraq, the SAA, to some extent even Hezbollah can’t abandon their current positions to march toward Israel without risking eroding their control at home; they’re not expeditionary forces like Western armies, you can’t redeploy a lot of Iranian proxy forces without the local Sunni militias and other opposition groups taking advantage very quickly, even if you’re serving the ummah by going jihad against Israel.
The paramilitaries are considerably more eager to attack Israel than the Iranians are. If the Hezbollah commanders on the ground had their way, they probably would have launched everything and opened up a northern front shortly after October 7. Iran held them back because if Hezbollah starts a major engagement and gets destroyed, Iran loses a lot of leverage in their Cold War with Israel.
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a few hours ago: US approves Rafah op. in exchange for no Israeli counter-strikes on Iran
so maybe israel isn't going to go through with that. or they just really don't give a shit about what the US wants
Biden: Don't invade Rafah
Israel: Bombs Iranian embassy
Biden: Okay you can invade Rafah but don't bomb Iran
Israel: Bombs Iran.
Biden: (next week, probably) Here's $10 billion to help you bomb Iran
I'm starting to think the anti-Israel protestors have a point.
Or Israel no longer trusts the US (or at least Biden). The democrats right now are very split on Israel. The young part of their party is very anti Israel (literally pro Hamas). Similarly the Muslim part of the problem is relevant for being electorally located in Michigan.
On the other side, Jews make up much of the financial and intellectual power of their party. And those Jews are by and large zionists. Yet they are electorally irrelevant.
Biden has been trying to please both masters.
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White House: look, we can't openly support you on this Iran thing but... do it anyway people have short attention spans
White House: also don't get butthurt if we have to criticize you later
?
I'll bet this is literally true. The President on the same day denouncing their actions and shipping more weapons. That happened recently according to a report I heard on the radio.
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