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You're missing 5.: we manage to cut the fat successfully and take out the people who are currently kept in power by a combination of Boomer social standards (education spiral is 100% their baby- remember, their parents were GI Bill recipients) and luxury (natural resource development). There's a lot of ruin in the nation, but there's also a lot of possible reform, provided the people currently profiting from the ruin aren't able to keep a grasp on that power. And being that the countries most affected by this are the US (too well-armed and too large for DC to maintain order) and Canada (Laurentian Elite too strategically isolated to prosecute a Canadian civil war + 25,000 active duty servicemen not from Western Canada) they, in my opinion, have the best chance of any nation to turn out OK. All the US has to do is not get too dramatically wrecked as far as its economic inputs go (like, for instance, losing a war over Taiwan).
Problem areas currently include:
It's noteworthy that all of these things are progressive goals; fortunately, as far as a peaceful transition of power goes, that group generally has a very hard time raising legions to fight for them given their politics are literally "you're fighting for your own oppression, which is right and just" (rather than along ethnic or religious lines).
I take it this is a deeply misleading graph that fails to account for the Flynn effect/IQ being renormalized over the decades. A 100IQ in the 1930s is equivalent to around an 80IQ circa 2000.
"The numbers used to be bigger" is less impressive when you know that the scale changed.
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I tend to agree that the debt is not an intractable problem. Our position at the top of the world gives us a lot of unpleasant but not existential ways to mitigate it.
I’m also confused. Are you suggesting that the “fat” in your example consists of progressives? There is an obvious bloc with lots of property, a demand for SS and Medicare, low tolerance for investment risk, and Boomer social norms: the Boomers themselves. And they’re not really known for their progressivism.
It is weird that young, oppression-conscious progressives are making common cause with Boomers. Maybe it’s a natural progression as unions or universities leave a power vacuum. Maybe there’s a high-low coalition where the young defend entrenched interests in exchange for cultural victories. Regardless, force of arms won’t come into it.
The Boomers are going to die off. The proudest fiscal conservatives are going to age and retire and suddenly realize that they are the entrenched interests. And cutting entitlements will remain political suicide.
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I'm not familiar with the illegality of tutoring or whatever. Do you have more information or somewhere you can point me?
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