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PaperclipPerfector  11mo ago (text post)   1991 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 18, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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How would Trump stop the Russo-Ukrainian war in 24 hours? The obvious answer is that he wouldn't, but what if he actually tried? Are there any relatively plausible scenarios someone with Trump's temperament and reputation could try?

I think he might be able to do it simply by being elected.

The Ukrainian state is totally dependent upon US aid for funding everything: civil servants wages, pensions... All Ukrainian tax money goes to the war effort and they still need a great deal of foreign assistance to stay in the fight. Unless the EU steps up, Trump's plan to cut funding and arms will take the war from 'slow and steady Ukrainian defeat' to 'complete disaster + state disintegration'. Ukraine doesn't have the money to pay for a major war, why would they? Ukraine is a poor country. Even the combined resources of NATO are strained, look how the price of 155 mm shells has soared past 8,000 euros: https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/10/25/155-mm-shells-price-is-growing-8-6-million-for-1000-units/

The Ukrainian army is already in a lot of trouble regarding age and motivation. Their 'drag him away into the boot of our car' recruitment tactics indicate a certain level of desperation. The shock of a Trump victory might push them over the edge, though I admit I've underestimated Ukrainian stubbornness before.

what if he actually tried? Are there any relatively plausible scenarios someone with Trump's temperament and reputation could try?

No. Ukraine won't cooperate for any peace plan that doesn't result in Putin's head on a platter for losing a war.

If the alternative is going forward on their own, wouldn't they have some hard decisions to make? They are somewhere between holding the line and being gradually attritted into nothingness with brazillions of Western dollars and weapons flowing their way -- "make peace or else" would be a powerful threat to anyone who's thinking at all straight.

It would be a dangerous move even by Trump standards, because if they decided to call the bluff (?) he would either look very weak (if bluffing) or look like he was personally responsible for the hordes of orc marauders overrunning Rivendell -- but I'd say it would be more likely than not to work.

Trump cares a lot about what his constituents think, he's obsessed with polls. War in Ukraine is unpopular and especially unpopular among his populist right. He could make it clear Ukraine is getting no more money. Then release whatever info the spy agencies have on the 2014 coup to try and paint Ukraine as an illegitimate state owned by the globalists, which would give Europe a way out. Ukraine would be forced to concede quickly, or maybe they fight another month or two.

It's probably the only way to end the war, NATO involvement just ups the escalation, risks nuclear war or other powers entering the fray like China as they wouldn't want their backyard unstable and to be further isolated by western expansion. Though I've been surprised at how non aggressive China is so who knows really, they are a very introverted nation. It's logical though.

I doubt he will do it though, it'd take more calculation. Trump is more of a seat of his pants person. Deep state would immediately start to paint him as weak or a Russian puppet again and it's very easy to get under Trump's skin and manipulate him this way.

Basically the war will continue to the last willing Ukrainian.

War in Ukraine is unpopular and especially unpopular among his populist right.

That sounds like that American voters think that USA leadership has same or equal blame in starting war than Russia leadership.

NATO involvement just ups the escalation, risks nuclear war or other powers entering the fray like China as they wouldn't want their backyard unstable

Russia clearly winning is causing the same problems, but in even more significant and worse way

How so? Russia winning just resets things to the way they were pre 2014, except now they have a puppet state that is completely devastated economically with serious demographic issues to grapple with. I'm not sure they'd even want territory beyond kharkiv / odessa.

Yeah, it’ll be interesting gamesmanship. Trump likes deals, but he hates his deal overtures being rejected or thrown back at him. So the key for the American ‘deep state’ will be making his offer unpalatable to the Russians so Putin rejects it offhand (thereby cementing Trumps support for Ukraine), while the key for Russia will be offering Trump just enough that he considers himself to have won in a way that Biden etc would be incapable of.

In 24 hours, we're basically talking about Trump tweeting out:

As of TODAY, Ukraine is and always will be, a NATO ally of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA! Any attack on Ukraine will be an ATTACK ON THE USA and will be responded to accordingly by the United States and our allies!

Which I'd give slightly better than 2/3 odds of ending the war on the spot, given that the other 1/3 is "significant portions of Europe are glassed." If Trump did something like that, obviously it would be illegal on multiple fronts, but calling his bluff would be costly that there is a good chance Putin would back down before anyone can tell Trump that isn't how NATO works.

From the beginning I've thought the best "off-ramp" for Putin would be direct NATO involvement, allowing Putin to pull out and claim to be the peacemaker even with minimal gains, though we may be past that by now. Let a couple Russian jets shoot down a couple F-35s and they can claim victory while pulling back.

If you give him his whole first year, I think Trump is the perfect guy to help execute Placing Harry Windsor on the throne of a restored Kiev monarchy:

War is simply the continuation of political intercourse with the addition of other means. We deliberately use the phrase 'with the addition of other means' because we also want to make it clear that war in itself does not suspend political intercourse or change it into something entirely different. In essentials that intercourse continues, irrespective of the means it employs. The main lines along which military events progress, and to which they are restricted, are political lines that continue throughout the war into the subsequent peace -- Do I really have to attribute this one?

The government of Ukraine cannot end the war with Russia in a position where Russia could renew the war in the future. As the permanent neutering of Russia is impossible or inadvisable, most commentators want to provide Ukraine with some kind of security guarantee from the USA/NATO/PRC that will prevent future Russian aggression, but negotiated in some unspecified way that it isn't just adding Ukraine to NATO, which it is basically assumed Russia wouldn't accept unless, as above, Russia was permanently neutered, which, as above, is impossible or inadvisable. So how do we tie Ukraine to the NATO powers in a way that is genuinely credible and will be viewed by Ukrainians as a binding guarantee, but isn't article 5?

Let's look at how the Concert of Europe in the 19th century handled this: Constitutional or absolute monarchy was held to be the best form of government, and when a new country was formed, they would simply install a monarch from another royal family. The monarch's had no necessary special relation to their new domain, the first king of Belgium was originally considered for the job of king of Greece, which went to another German monarch instead. King Charles and his sons are descended from the Greek royal family [through a switch in royal houses en route] on his father's side, so it's family tradition to say: Prince Harry should form a mercenary corps, join the UKR forces and take Crimea, then Harry and Meagan should be installed as Grand Prince and Grand Princess of Kiev while naming Archie as Ilkhan of Crimea and heir while engaging him to the daughter of Ukrainian General or politician.

Harry does have some military experience in combat, and he's still young enough at 38 and popular enough, that he could credibly recruit a military force of thousands of veterans from the USA, UK, Canada, and Australia to join him in this venture. I think there's still enough weird tradition to get guys from the Commonwealth countries to want to ride out with a rogue devil-may-care prince into combat. He could get the money to fund their equipment and training from his friends Oprah and Tyler Perry and by selling the TikTok rights, or the CIA could fund it covertly, whichever, just get all the money for the full shebang of western toys. Take his fully equipped brigade of western veterans, go to Ukraine, and put up a good show. I don't think Harry is actually that bright, but he could find a bored retired general to handle the actual conquering for him.

At the end of the war, like our ancestors before us, the international community gets together to name Harry and Megan Grand Prince and Princess of Kiev. Now if Russia invades again ten years from now, do you really think that the UK is going to sit idly by and watch their King's son, their heir's brother, Diana's son, get thrown out? Maybe the UK public doesn't much like Harry and Meggan, but watching a close relative get deposed is just getting cucked as a kingdom, no way Sunak lets that happen. And is the US public going to let a celebrity BIPoC diverse prince and his valid mentally suffering actress mum get tossed in the tower? No way. We often mock the 19th century Royalists obsession with installing monarchs, but this was the purpose. It tied the new country to the international community by blood. In the same way, by creating a British ginger king and a halfrican American queen, Ukraine can guarantee that the two most important countries in NATO will have their back. And we'll be free of their podcasting project.

In 24 hours, we're basically talking about Trump tweeting out:

As of TODAY, Ukraine is and always will be, a NATO ally of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA! Any attack on Ukraine will be an ATTACK ON THE USA and will be responded to accordingly by the United States and our allies!

Which I'd give slightly better than 2/3 odds of ending the war on the spot, given that the other 1/3 is "significant portions of Europe are glassed." If Trump did something like that, obviously it would be illegal on multiple fronts, but calling his bluff would be costly that there is a good chance Putin would back down before anyone can tell Trump that isn't how NATO works.

I see a non 0 chance of it actually literally going down exactly like this (or close enough).

Only with slightly higher odds of Europe getting glassed. I suspect tensions on the leadership side in Russia are running higher than most people believe, and, I suspect they have more limited access to effective methods for de-stressing and de-tensioning than most.

So my odds on [at least one person on the Russian side, capable of triggering this kind of event when stressed is running high enough on adrenaline or uppers or sleep deprivation to cause a catastrophic chain of events] are higher than 1/3

Also, I started laughing when I read this far into your post, am still chuckle-laughing, and I can't seem to stop. You made my day. Thank you!

Also, I started laughing when I read this far into your post, am still chuckle-laughing, and I can't seem to stop. You made my day. Thank you!

https://youtube.com/watch?v=6_Olf6smJ3s

Relatively generous terms of peace on one hand, and a threat of escalation if they're rejected on the other (backed by deploying the navy and air force to the relevant locations). It's all very LARPy in the end, and could backfire badly, but it's the only thing that comes to mind that would be on-brand with Trump.

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