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My apologies if this is something you've addressed in the past elsewhere, but I think an important preliminary question is what one thinks the underlying phenomenon of Trans is. Not so much the question of biological vs mental vs cultural vs spiritual, that can fall within any category, but the question of are there real people who are really trans and should transition. The way I see it, with variations, we can point to three broad theories/explanations:
The mainstream Pro-Trans TRA view: All, or at least a morally-significant vast majority, of people who claim to be trans are trans in some significant way where the best thing they can do is transition socially and medically. No, or at least a morally insignificant minority, of people who declare themselves trans are not actually trans and will be harmed by transitioning. The correct number of trans people to exist is as many as state they are trans, probably higher than currently exist in our still "trans-phobic" society.
The standard anti-trans social contagion view: Trans people do not exist. No one is trans. At best people who think that they are trans have been infected by some form of social contagion which acted on another variety of mental illness, and they will not be happier as a result of transitioning. At worst, people who state that they are trans are exploiting society and its kid-glove treatment of trans people. The correct number of trans people is zero.
The blended, anti-absolutist, mushy-middle, false-compromise, empirical but unprincipled view (which I hold): Some hard-core of people exist who, for whatever reason, will always want to transition to living as the opposite sex and will be happier if they do so; but there also exist today people who transition for reasons of social contagion or to take advantage of policies, who would be happier living as their birth-sex. The correct number of trans people is probably much smaller than the number among young people today, but it is not zero.
The vibe shift will look different depending what people think is the underlying reality. Let's Stop Talking About it So Much is a shift away from 1), but it might be a shift towards 2) or a shift toward 3); it is optimal policy for 3) while 2) would seem to require a more militant anti-trans view, a crusade to remove it from history books. Lobotomies and Electroshock Therapy went through significant pop-culture crusades against them before they were forgotten. While today we mostly forget these controversies altogether, they never really existed for us, they were first demonized aggressively and publicly.
I personally hold view 3), and more or less always have. Empirically, I've met and known and interacted with people who call themselves trans who are basically fine citizens, and state that they are happier as a result. I see no evidence strong enough to doubt them. I also have met and known people who I don't think are actually trans, despite announcing so, and I'm certainly aware of the evidence of social contagion. I don't think making transition illegal for adults is a good idea, or outlawing trans people otherwise, but I also think the attention paid to the issue is out of all proportion and probably leads to the social contagion problem. Vocally supporting or opposing trans stuff makes trans stuff interesting, teens want nothing more than they want to be interesting. Overly villainizing something gives it power. It all strikes me as increasingly uninteresting.
Now there is a strong argument that 3) is a halfway house, a wishy washy morally cowardly position. I'm not sure I have much of a philosophical counter to it.
Overall, I hope you're correct.
I’m in house three as well. Although I think it actually is a bit more toward the anti-T side than anything. There is evidence of rapid-onset-dysphoria occurring, often in teens and preteens. The trick, I think is making the topic as boring and uninteresting and unnoticed as possible. Stop putting flags everywhere, stop holding parades, stop the school interventions, and 90% of ROD disappears leaving behind the truly trans community who need support. I d personally also restrict medical intervention unlit the person reached 16 or 18 (16 with permission). It seems like once you do all that, it’s a self solving problem. Only people who have the condition will persist through puberty and get medical intervention.
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If being correct is "a wishy washy morally cowardly position" because extremists hate your nuance, then be a "wishy washy coward" confidently and boldly.
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If I ever addressed it, it's scattered across different posts. I don't think 3) is a wishy-washy halfway house, I think it's a perfectly respectable position, and would be happy if this ends up being the new compromise. I also don't think it's a good idea to make decisions for adults, but I don't think this is what the controversy is about, nor do I think it's about the amount off attention paid to the issue. For me, it's two things:
I do have to admit I started leaning a bit towards 2), since I heard that anorexia essentially didn't exist, until one case was documented, covered by the media, and suddenly the whole thing became endemic. I started thinking that some people are just Not Well, and gravitate towards these self-harming behaviors, for reasons which might by unknown even to them. What to do about it is anyone's guess, the answer will depend on one's values rather than any evidence, and I heard compelling arguments for and against either approach.
But psychosurgery did not. It was a separate episode from lobotomies, and it really does look like a case of Culture War that went down the memory hole.
The idea that trans issues gained power on the back of being villanized strikes me as extremely ahistorical. I also don't see how pretending it's not there will take away it's power stemming from it being taught as fact at the local school.
I personally find it sensible.
But, I recall rejecting the gender binary was a fad among some online progressives. I've never seen a good contrarian following through with the obvious response to online trans people. "Trans women aren't women. No one is. There aren't two and only two categories. Gender is a spectrum not meaningfully described by this arbitrary binary. So no, a guy on estrogen is not a woman. People born with 2 X chromosomes aren't, so you transwomen also aren't."
Cool. Wouldn't it be great if people were free to embrace and reject philosophical views depending on which ones they find plausible, rather than being pressured to embrace them through social ostracism, threat of losing your job, and hate speech laws?
I'm not sure what's that suppose to achieve. Sure no one is a woman in the same way that chairs aren't really chairs, horses aren't really horses, and tulips aren't really tulips. Every category can be deconstructed until it ceases to exist, but none of that changes the material reality around us.
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A huge portion of blue tribe culture is oppositional to red tribe culture, and vice versa.
For comparison, a local middle school student started a "Satan Club," people got upset about it. Local evangelical churches held prayer meetings about it. I was pulling my hair out at the sheer obtuse stupidity of publicly announcing how much the annoying middle schoolers who set out to annoy you had annoyed you. Ignored, the Satan Club was lame, the lamest most annoying goth neckbeards at your local school. Opposed, they were hilarious and awesome. Watching church moms get their panties in a twist about it, against myself I was kinda impressed. When people are that easily trolled, how can you blame people for trolling them?
Right, but I maintain this is not what happened with trans issues. With your scenario the proper comparison would be the school itself implementing a curriculum teaching the kids Satan is our lord and savior, it's not something that can be won over by ignoring it.
Similarly when you ssend your kid to a psychologist, because they're having issues, and before you know it, the kid comes back with a prescription for blockers or hormones, that's not a problem you'll solve by pretending it's it's not there.
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I found this Tumblr screencap a while back, it stuck in my head, and then it turned up again recently:
For me, that's a useful way to view matters. Is a given person a gender enjoyer? Or someone who isn't enjoying anything?
I honestly have no idea what meaning I'm supposed to be drawing from that story.
I am not surprised that the author fancied themselves mischievous and fun to be around after that exchange. Certainly no longer a "failed male" as I expect many transwomen often slotted themselves as.
I know I would have found the conversation delicious, were I on the recieving end of it.
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