naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
If I were the czar of Gaza, I would declare an independent state which in theory includes Judea and Samaria but in practice encompasses only Gaza. I would build up the economy, utilize foreign aid for the benefit of my citizens, absolutely forbid any violence towards Israel.
In 5-10 years, when things start to improve, I would use diplomatic means and international pressure on Israel to gain control of Oslo A territories in Judea and Samaria (but not B and C), instead of Fatah. There I could build an even stronger economy, again ruthlessly putting down any violence against Israel. At this point I have a state. I negotiate with Jordan and Egypt to allow independent travel between Samaria and Gaza. I’ve already been recognized in the 80’s, so I don’t need to jump that hurdle. I will now solve the refugee crisis by bringing back every descendant of ‘48 to my new state. We are now a thriving state, leaning heavily on international aid and tourism but not blockaded.
This is the hard part, since Israel might interfere from here on out, but I will draw the optimistic scenario. I demand that Israel complies with Oslo, as I have, and gain civil control of Oslo B territories. From here I will use more diplomacy and world pressure to finalize my borders, roughly drawing on the ‘48 armistice line but NOT adhering strictly to it, since it’s mostly meaningless. I offer the settlers in area C citizenship in my country, and since I have shown no violence towards them they might actually accept. We now live in peace. I win.
Isn’t this the “miracle happens” part? Aren’t the extremists going to question whose side you’re truly on? Won’t you be marginalized or assassinated as more moderate Palestinian leaders have been?
assume last paragraph is a joke
Not actually. It may be less detached from reality than expecting Palestinians to stop doing violence to Israel over the next 100 years.
It’s not “miracle happens” so much as “violence happens”. If I’m a leader in Gaza then I get to do that. If I can’t do that then what’s the point if the exercise? Just to prove that Gaza’s culture is irredeemable?
Your last paragraph is ridiculous on so many levels. Maybe least of which is that you think it’s possible to send the Temple Mount and Cave of the Patriarch anywhere. I agree it’s ridiculous to expect the Arabs to change, by the way, which is why they must go.
Your last paragraph is ridiculous on so many levels. Maybe least of which is that you think it’s possible to send the Temple Mount and Cave of the Patriarch anywhere.
I was actually asking a genuine question. Despite even being married to an ethnic Jew at some point, the fine details of what Jews consider sacred didn't make it to me. It's not very common knowledge in the US aside from maybe uhh the city of Jerusalem has some holy sites? Something about a wall? And a temple?
No temple; there is famously no temple. The Temple Mount. It's a hill. There's an ancient wall too. Neither is practically movable, and even if you could move them, I'm sure that would be considered to be defiling them. Also if you moved them, Muslims would find that to be a casus bellum, because they're holy sites for them too.
That is kind of my question yes. Does the solution require a leader that’s sane and visionary enough to want peace and prosperity with cosmopolitan sensibilities while at the same time is capable of doing violence to his own people to avoid any violence coming to Israel and ruining the plan. And keeping this up for decades.
FWIW I like your answer a lot and I don’t think preventing violence against Israel would be unattainable for a Gazan leader with a strong enough power base. I’m thinking here of Kadyrov in Chechnya. You’d want to start by finding a smart powerful and mercenary figure within Hamas. Give them enough money to build up their power base, bribe minor players, have major rivals killed. Give them weapons and allow them to build a Praetorian Guard of elite Hamas fighters who live like kings and get all the chicks. Develop very strict internal messaging norms around Israel and violence — general calls for a unified Palestine one day are fine, but no direct exhortations to violence. Make it so that anyone who fucks with you ends up dead, and anyone who works with you gets money and women.
This shouldn’t be politically impossible. Everyone is responsive to multiple social incentives and these in turn can be influenced with money. It will just take a lot of time, money, and finding the right people.
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Notes -
If I were the czar of Gaza, I would declare an independent state which in theory includes Judea and Samaria but in practice encompasses only Gaza. I would build up the economy, utilize foreign aid for the benefit of my citizens, absolutely forbid any violence towards Israel.
In 5-10 years, when things start to improve, I would use diplomatic means and international pressure on Israel to gain control of Oslo A territories in Judea and Samaria (but not B and C), instead of Fatah. There I could build an even stronger economy, again ruthlessly putting down any violence against Israel. At this point I have a state. I negotiate with Jordan and Egypt to allow independent travel between Samaria and Gaza. I’ve already been recognized in the 80’s, so I don’t need to jump that hurdle. I will now solve the refugee crisis by bringing back every descendant of ‘48 to my new state. We are now a thriving state, leaning heavily on international aid and tourism but not blockaded.
This is the hard part, since Israel might interfere from here on out, but I will draw the optimistic scenario. I demand that Israel complies with Oslo, as I have, and gain civil control of Oslo B territories. From here I will use more diplomacy and world pressure to finalize my borders, roughly drawing on the ‘48 armistice line but NOT adhering strictly to it, since it’s mostly meaningless. I offer the settlers in area C citizenship in my country, and since I have shown no violence towards them they might actually accept. We now live in peace. I win.
Edit: I assume your last paragraph is a joke.
You are now dead. Start back at step 1.
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Isn’t this the “miracle happens” part? Aren’t the extremists going to question whose side you’re truly on? Won’t you be marginalized or assassinated as more moderate Palestinian leaders have been?
Not actually. It may be less detached from reality than expecting Palestinians to stop doing violence to Israel over the next 100 years.
Not if I strike first
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It’s not “miracle happens” so much as “violence happens”. If I’m a leader in Gaza then I get to do that. If I can’t do that then what’s the point if the exercise? Just to prove that Gaza’s culture is irredeemable?
Your last paragraph is ridiculous on so many levels. Maybe least of which is that you think it’s possible to send the Temple Mount and Cave of the Patriarch anywhere. I agree it’s ridiculous to expect the Arabs to change, by the way, which is why they must go.
I was actually asking a genuine question. Despite even being married to an ethnic Jew at some point, the fine details of what Jews consider sacred didn't make it to me. It's not very common knowledge in the US aside from maybe uhh the city of Jerusalem has some holy sites? Something about a wall? And a temple?
No temple; there is famously no temple. The Temple Mount. It's a hill. There's an ancient wall too. Neither is practically movable, and even if you could move them, I'm sure that would be considered to be defiling them. Also if you moved them, Muslims would find that to be a casus bellum, because they're holy sites for them too.
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That is kind of my question yes. Does the solution require a leader that’s sane and visionary enough to want peace and prosperity with cosmopolitan sensibilities while at the same time is capable of doing violence to his own people to avoid any violence coming to Israel and ruining the plan. And keeping this up for decades.
More options
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FWIW I like your answer a lot and I don’t think preventing violence against Israel would be unattainable for a Gazan leader with a strong enough power base. I’m thinking here of Kadyrov in Chechnya. You’d want to start by finding a smart powerful and mercenary figure within Hamas. Give them enough money to build up their power base, bribe minor players, have major rivals killed. Give them weapons and allow them to build a Praetorian Guard of elite Hamas fighters who live like kings and get all the chicks. Develop very strict internal messaging norms around Israel and violence — general calls for a unified Palestine one day are fine, but no direct exhortations to violence. Make it so that anyone who fucks with you ends up dead, and anyone who works with you gets money and women.
This shouldn’t be politically impossible. Everyone is responsive to multiple social incentives and these in turn can be influenced with money. It will just take a lot of time, money, and finding the right people.
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