naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
(text post)
30377 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I think it's too large for Qassams without a secondary explosion; depending on model they're usually 5-20 kg TNT- or ANFO-shrapnel mixes, plus whatever fuel was left over. This card is absolutely inappropriate for comparison, but it's the sort of thing that the ATF doesn't shoot people for talking about, and I don't think it gives anywhere near the boom present there.
That said, there's other which less commonly-used payloads, and they range from 100lbs-300lbs, often of better high explosives without as much (or any) mixed-in shrapnel.
There's always the possibility of a golden BB: even a small warhead can cause tremendous damage if it hits the wrong place. Hospitals will naturally have people in fairly close quarters in an environment like this, as well as a lot of oxygen tanks and fuel moving around. It doesn't look like secondary explosives, but sometimes that's hard to identify.
Rumors on Twitter are that it was a test of a special longer range missile that exploded the fuel all at once. Not saying they’re necessarily true, but that could explain it if so.
Everyone on twitter does 10 different routines of 5 dimensional hyperspace mental gymnastics at the same time. That a bunch of team A are doing it doesn't really prove anything, because teams B-Z also are. Better to focus on good arguments.
Maybe, I'm skeptical by nature especially from a conflict and alleged atrocity such as this. The photos to me could also fit the signature of an Air Burst JDAM. If you had a target - or group of targets - in an open area like a parking lot, using an air burst munition makes the most sense and causes the most damage. However I am not an expert.
Maybe I'm skeptical or biased but I still don't buy it. Which begs the question if these photos sway the Arab powers and their people one way or the other.
"JDAM" is a really broad category (if you really want to be technical, it's the guidance kit rather than the weapon system), but at least common ones are 200 lbs to 1000 lbs of high explosive. That's... really not consistent with what we're seeing here, even in airburst configuration, nor was the videos.
Similarly, the impact pattern just isn't anything like you'd expect from an airburst; things are pushed away from the impact site, not crumpling from a big overpressure wave, not just in the cars immediately around the impact site but also nearby roof tiles or building windows.
Looks to me like a small "low explosive" explosion maybe 20-50 feet above the parking lot (accounting for the roof damage and damage to cars directly below) spreading burning material over a somewhat wider area. No significant high explosive, or all the car windows and building windows would have been broken.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a
court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to
optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.
The weekly Culture War threads host the most
controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are
appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy;
if in doubt, post!
Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts.
You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.
Why are you called The Motte?
A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently,
it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey",
originally identified by
philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial
but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens
this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for
the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired
propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."
On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.
New post guidelines
If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it.
A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts
such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a
submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).
Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or
significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Are those missiles large enough to do this kind of damage?
I think it's too large for Qassams without a secondary explosion; depending on model they're usually 5-20 kg TNT- or ANFO-shrapnel mixes, plus whatever fuel was left over. This card is absolutely inappropriate for comparison, but it's the sort of thing that the ATF doesn't shoot people for talking about, and I don't think it gives anywhere near the boom present there.
That said, there's other which less commonly-used payloads, and they range from 100lbs-300lbs, often of better high explosives without as much (or any) mixed-in shrapnel.
There's always the possibility of a golden BB: even a small warhead can cause tremendous damage if it hits the wrong place. Hospitals will naturally have people in fairly close quarters in an environment like this, as well as a lot of oxygen tanks and fuel moving around. It doesn't look like secondary explosives, but sometimes that's hard to identify.
More options
Context Copy link
Rumors on Twitter are that it was a test of a special longer range missile that exploded the fuel all at once. Not saying they’re necessarily true, but that could explain it if so.
Lots of hoop jumping from Zionists on twitter right now.
Not a useful contribution, less of this please.
More options
Context Copy link
Everyone on twitter does 10 different routines of 5 dimensional hyperspace mental gymnastics at the same time. That a bunch of team A are doing it doesn't really prove anything, because teams B-Z also are. Better to focus on good arguments.
More options
Context Copy link
Given the daytime photos released, it seems like they were jumping through the correct hoops.
Maybe, I'm skeptical by nature especially from a conflict and alleged atrocity such as this. The photos to me could also fit the signature of an Air Burst JDAM. If you had a target - or group of targets - in an open area like a parking lot, using an air burst munition makes the most sense and causes the most damage. However I am not an expert.
Maybe I'm skeptical or biased but I still don't buy it. Which begs the question if these photos sway the Arab powers and their people one way or the other.
"JDAM" is a really broad category (if you really want to be technical, it's the guidance kit rather than the weapon system), but at least common ones are 200 lbs to 1000 lbs of high explosive. That's... really not consistent with what we're seeing here, even in airburst configuration, nor was the videos.
Similarly, the impact pattern just isn't anything like you'd expect from an airburst; things are pushed away from the impact site, not crumpling from a big overpressure wave, not just in the cars immediately around the impact site but also nearby roof tiles or building windows.
Looks to me like a small "low explosive" explosion maybe 20-50 feet above the parking lot (accounting for the roof damage and damage to cars directly below) spreading burning material over a somewhat wider area. No significant high explosive, or all the car windows and building windows would have been broken.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link