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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   29411 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #1

This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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Yes, any war could be resolved by one side's unilateral surrender. Ukraine could end the war tomorrow too.

As unreasonable as I think it is, I’ve seen pro-Russia posters make that exact argument.

I'm not pro-Russia (who here is?) but yes Ukraine should seek peace and concede territory if necessary. I have little doubt that this would minimize human suffering.

The counterargument seems to be something along the lines of "We need teach Russia a lesson so they won't do it again. Remember Munich!"

Which is silly. Russia lacks the capacity to do it again.

I find the arguments of the warmongers very unconvincing. The use of the pejorative "pro-Russia" to describe those who would have peace feels like manufacturing consensus.

Minimizing the present value of human suffering is not, and never has been, the primary aim of a nation at war.

who here is?

There are at least a few around. More if you count the ones who gesture at how terrible Russia’s actions are only as a justification for telling Ukraine to surrender.

I don’t think “pro-Russia” is a pejorative any more than “pro-Ukraine.”

none of those are examples of being "pro Russian" and I doubt any of them would self-identify as pro-Russian

Which is silly. Russia lacks the capacity to do it again.

Even in my wildest anti-Russian fantasies do I not believe that Russia, if given a peace and concessions instead of some kind of "a lesson", would lack the capacity to do it again.

Exactly, if the war ceases right now at the current lines, Russia's ability to rearm stays constant or improves (as sanctions loosen or their enforcement becomes more lax). Ukraine's drops precipitously off a cliff as Western support evaporates. Ukraine needs Russia to see the invasion as being routed and done, not merely paused, because Russia will find itself in a more advantageous position in the future, and Ukraine needs the mental barrier of "starting a war of aggression on a neighbor" to be back in place, preferably with a little extra bracing from that neighbor having kicked their asses, to hope it doesn't get restarted again.

Ukraine anshlussed on generous terms is better for Ukrainians than battered and destroyed Ukraine folded into the Russian state that has lost couple of million of their best people due to emigration or war casualties.

I have not seen shred of evidence that Russia entered the war with genocidal ambitions which doesn't make it that existential for the populace, unlike the state.

If you make the assumption that Russian victory in the meatgrinder is inevitable (big if, but Zelensky is doing his best to make it smaller lately) it is not unreasonable. Even Ukrainian victory may not be worth it if it is pyrrhic enough.

You clearly weren't reading some of the rhetoric coming out of Ria Novosti in January of 2022.

anshlussed on generous terms is better for Ukrainians

well, generous terms that would be actually kept are not viable with Russia

"Ukraine anshlussed" is going to lead to millions of Ukrainians emigrating in any case, and would be a bleeding wound with continuous partisan activity that would require Russia continous brutality to quell.

It is possible.

Would you apply the same logic to Palestine? I don’t mean this as a gotcha; I was observing above that “one side’s unilateral surrender” is something that gets floated in every conflict. At least every one where the people dying are at a safe distance.

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