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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   3298 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for April 2, 2023

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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First time poster so i'm not very well versed in the formalities here just to let you guys know.

Will try to be as direct as possible.

Im of the coviction that modern civilization is doomed to collapse. Because of energy constaints, namely the energy return on investment (EROI) of: peak oil and renewable energies. Further more the energy density of oil alternatives is not dense enough to accomodate the modern standard of living.

Here a couple pieces of information that support my viewpoint: Number 1: "EROI of different fuels and the implications for society (2014)" research paper by Charles A.S Hall and others. Number 2: The article "renewables-ko-by-eroi" on the website energytransition.org. Number 3: "Energy, EROI and quality of life (2014)" by Jessica G. Lambert and others.

A couple of assumtions i made are that high EROI is needed for modern living. In case of big EROI losses there will be a massive increase in civil unrest. There is enough coal in the ground to supply our energy needs. However this is not very applicable in cars nor is it good for the envirmoment, which in turn will cause civilisation collape in the longhaul.

If i forgot anything here please let me know.

It would be very nice to hear some counter viewpoints! Because looking at the future and seeking a bleak one is not nice.

All the best,

William

P.S. How do you post links here?

What do you consider a collapse? How far back will civilization regress? Stone Age? Iron Age? Early Modern Age? Steam Age? Atomic Age?

I think population decline will hit us quicker than fossil fuels. P.R. of China speedran the demographic transition, but so did South Korea. African countries will do the same in the next 50-70 years.

I think @Stefferi had some stats about how the global fertility rate is below replacement because of the mortality rates in poorer countries, despite technically being above 2 per female.

I think it's basically on the edge, might dip below replacement this year or somewhere in the close future. I discussed this on Twitter a while ago and it seems the mortality rates are a bit lower than I though. The point is, though, that while generally replacement rate is considered to be 2,1, it's a bit higher than this globally, maybe like 2,2 or 2,3, and the global fertility rate is pretty close to this already.

It's interesting that you bring up energy density, but don't mention nuclear, which blows everything else out of the water.

If you're talking about energy density of transportable power (i.e. oil as a fuel for vehicles rather than electricity creation), I'm willing to assume batteries arent an option due to energy density/materials required, but you should probably addresss why hydrogen and ammonia *aren't * valid options as an oil/gasoline replacement (other than the cost of replacing infrastructure, but if that's the argument, it's a separate one).

At least, that's my thought process on the matter.

Heavy transport can switch to lng fairly easily, I believe, and we’re much farther from running out of that than with oil.

Thanks for the response.

Nuclear is very good on the small scale. However there is not enough uranium to support longterm global reliance on nuclear energy. If the entire world would switch to nuclear energy today, the known uranium supply will be depleted within 5 years.

See the article: "Why nuclear power will never supply the world's energy need" on phys.org.

I will give you that there is alot of uranium in the world's oceans, maybe this could be extracted. But this will cut deeply into the net energy gain nuclear gives.

Even then maybe this could feasible. Not so sure, i havent versed myself verywell in this department.

*Edit, ofcourse there could be alot of new uranium discoveries, but since the known supply is 'only 5 global energy years'. I assume the unknown deposits wont supply much more.

**More edits, For hydrogen there are big energy costs for compressing it into a density where it is feasable to use. As for ammonia i havent looked into this one yet, thank you very much!

All the best,

William

How do spent fuel reprocessing and thorium reactors affect the lifespan of nuclear energy reserves?

Welcome. I'd recommend you take this post into the shop and try again, you'll probably get a more interesting response.

  1. This would be more appropriate in the Culture War Roundup thread.

  2. You're saying something with a massive inferential distance from what most people talk about around here. Try to anticipate and address in advance common objections like the one @Mewis brought up (why the peak of conventional oil didn't translate to peak oil, why EROI is an insurmountable challenge that technology can't address, etc)

  3. Links use this format: [inferential distance](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLqWn5LASfhhArZ7w/expecting-short-inferential-distances)

Thank you very much!

All the best,

William

Peak Oil has been anticipated many times. It hasn't happened because we discover new deposits, or figure out ways to exploit existing ones that were written off as impractical or uneconomical. This isn't to say it will never happen. However it seems more likely that we'll run into trouble as a result of excessive GHG emissions from burning fossil fuels first.

Thanks for the response.

While we are still finding new oil deposits, the discovery rate of the new oil depositst follows a downward trend. (the line has the same figure like a normal-distribution)

Some pieces that support this statement, See 1: The USGS forecast. See 2: "Ecology in Times of Scarcity" by John W Day and others. See 3: the article "The Growing gap" on planetforlive.com.

Also the new discoveries are very often in locations that are diffuclt to access. Think of very deep sea or antartica, et cetera. This ensures the Energy cost getting this oil will be high, so it is coupled with a high EROI. I cant not quickly find sources for this statement, appolagies.

All the best,

William

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