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I'm ready to call it now - preference cascade.
NYT publishing this article mere days after the abject failure of trans activists to organize a high-profile boycott is incredibly telling. And there's been lots of signs that public opinion (especially elite public opinion) has been getting brittle on the issue - no one likes getting bulled by moralists all the time, especially when they're your distant social lessers. Moreover, this isn't a dramatic turnabout & could get accepted fairly quickly by the laypeople - I had a leftist freind tell me umsolicited that they were sick of 'purity politics' on the left (though I checked, they didnt consider JKR cancellation to be an ecample - yet)
Cynical take 1- JKR got fed up & hired a big money PR firm. Possibly quite some time ago, with them waiting for (engineering?) a time and place to strike back. Her upcoming podcast series with the WBC escapee lady fits this theory nicely.
Cynical take 2 - Alternately, the powers that be decided that the TERF wars were sucking up too much oxygen & that it is now time for 'healing & reconciliation' and a renewed focus on squashing down the populist right. Which I've argued for before - right now is the worst possible time for leftist doctrinal infighting, their position is overextended and their enemy is visibly regrouping.
What do you think the results of the preference cascade will be? "hormones and surgery become 10% more difficult for minors to obtain"? Or what?
The amount of minors being referred to gender clinics drops to around 2010 levels
Trans people will no longer be sent to opposite sex prisons
Sports won't allow male athletes in female leagues
Slogans like "trans women are women" will go out the window.
Misgendering / deadnaming is seen as being rude, rather than beyond the pale.
Pretty sure the anti-trans NYT people would universally hold to 'trans women are women'. I don't see that going 'out the window'.
Not sure precisely what "rude, but not beyond the pale" means. Most trans people don't go into screeching fits of rage when misgendered, that is (I don't like saying this!) mostly an internet thing. Many of them are often misgendered by e.g. family members and go along with it.
I think many sports already don't allow transwoman athletes in female leagues, but could be wrong. Either way, that one seems plausible, although not any moreso than a week ago. I'd guess changes to prisons won't happen, but it's sufficiently noncentral to the trans movement that it might.
"The amount of minors being referred to gender clinics drops to around 2010 levels" - I don't see that happening. Most of the increase is caused not by lowered thresholds by medical professionals, but massively increasing interest in transitioning by minors (they learn about it via the internet or irl friends). So pulling back to 2010 levels would require much more restrictive standards.
"Going out the window" means you're not going to have that argument thrown in your face if you disagree about letting trans people into opposite sex spaces, that you won't be forced to recite the slogan, and that you won't be cancelled for denying it.
It means you won't be able to whip up a mob to go after someone who does it.
"Most" trans people are irrelevant. Like I said many times before I don't believe in the "democratic model" of society. It's the leadership of trans activists that's relevant.
Yeah, because that was the status quo pre-trans activism. I'm saying we're going back to it.
Funny, out of all the points this one is the one I'm the most confident about, and your arguments is precisely why I think it will go down. Yes, medical professionals have no way of telling whether someone actually has gender dysphoria or not, so the increase most likely had nothing to do with the medical / psychological condition being more prevalent, or more detected than before. The majority of referrals to gender clinics are between ages 12-16, with a massive drop-off around 18 years old. It is far more likely that the whole thing is a social trend, and all social trends are eventually replaced with new ones.
I'm sorry, the referrals to a gender clinic go DOWN at 18? That's very surprising to me. What about all the closested trans people with conservative parents that are finally able to make their own choices when they turn 18? Shouldn't it go up?
They desist. Turns out for most marginalized people, getting away from high school greatly improves the quality of their life.
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Time for my regularly scheduled link to Tavistock data. The drop off begins at 17. This is the UK but I've seen similar age profile from a gender clinic in the US.
What you describe may still be happening, it's just their numbers are dwarfed by the number of minors.
Headline: "Referrals to GIDs level off in 2018-19"
Numbers
Should read "Referrals of males to GIDs level off in 2018-19" -- the tomboy genocide continues apace.
I should be rather interested to see crosstabs for age/sex -- not that we will.
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I've argued this before, but turning 18 does not magically grant one the actual ability to act on the agency they're legally considered responsible enough to have. Many kids who reach that age may still be stuck at home, especially in this modern era.
And how does this explain there being more referrals for 12-16 year olds?
On that, I'm not terribly sure. I just wanted to point out that reality doesn't reflect GSYM's model.
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With Francoists, fascists and literal 1937 Nazis advancing on them, the Spanish Republican forces split into Soviet-communist vs anarcho-communist groups and fought a civil war within the civil war. Naturally the Republican forces all ultimately lost. Many later died in secret labor and torture camps. The stakes were as high as possible, but Soviet backers demanded prioritizing purging non-Soviet-leftists.
For more information on this matter, read George Orwell's excellent Homage to Catalonia. The Soviet forces were a greater threat to him than the actual fascists. And he fought in trench warfare against Francoists.
I understand that modern American libs aren't 1937 communists, but I think they have a rather leftist tendency towards infighting and circular firing squads.
The common reducto complaint about leftist censorship is "you wouldn't censor a phone call between two people just because you didn't like what they were saying!" The answer of course being "yes, just like last time they had the power to do it. Because letting your enemies talk is as dangerous as allowing them guns. The censorship and monitoring division of the phone department must be controlled by loyalists"
The fighting between stalinists and trotskyites continues to this day on the article's talk page, as expected from Wikipedia.
I didn't check the talk page before linking. What a trash fire.
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It is fascinating how, once the "if you buy this game, or play this game, or even look in the direction of this game, you are literally funding Rowling's literal campaign of literal genocide!" campaign failed, they immediately pivoted to "She's an anti-Semite, you know" with the goblins and the shofar and the anti-Semitic cheese.
No stick is too bad to beat the dog, as the saying goes.
Based on my limited googling and eyesight, best I can tell there are zero similarities between the goblin horn in the game and a shofar. Am I tripping? Is there any way in which that horn is a shofar that wouldnt also apply to the Horn of Gondor? I am genuinely curious, since to me it looks like "generic fantasy horn", which I understand a shofar very much *isn't *, but I've been seeing it repeated from people who I'd usually trust to know this sort of thing. Or maybe they haven't seen the one in game, and are just repeating the party line.
Yes. I'm seeing it repeated online too, just parroting the party line. Because you don't want to be labelled as an anti-Semite, now do you? So agree with what your betters tell you and pass it along. It's very hard to be charitable when discussing this, since it's a bunch of loudmouth and possibly mentally-impaired people donning their tinfoil hats (how obsessed do you have to be to dig down into whether or not a particular type of cheese is kosher? and then tout that online as evidence of the Big Anti-Jewish Dogwhistle Conspiracy?) and spreading misinformation, which the retweeters then swallow as totally true (since questioning only gets a target painted on your back) and spread themselves, and then people go "it has been proven she's a bad person" because they saw something someone had passed on at fourth-hand about it, and if it's on the Internet, it must be correct!
Five seconds' Googling will get you to an article about blowing horns. Is the Basque horn in the photo like a shofar or not? Are the Basques being anti-Semitic by using copies of shofars, since only the Jews ever invented using animal horns (sarcasm off)?
What I think: entirely possible the art department for the game used reference photos of shofars as the basis for the drawing of the goblin horn and indeed they might have picked it not to look like things like the Horn of Gondor because copyright infringement is a pain in the behind and studios have entire fleets of lawyers on stand-by for any perceived "whoa you copied our trademarked visuals, pay up" cases; 1612 is a year of English witch trials which fits in with the lore of the world
What the "if you don't agree that trans genocide is happening you're a bigot" crowd think: Rowling herself personally designed it to look like a shofar and picked a year of a "Fatmilk" which means "cheese" German revolt which included a pogrom and picked non-kosher cheese to insult the shofar and be an anti-Semitic dog whistle because she is a monster and every penny spent on this game goes to fund death camps for trans people
The thing is, as far as I can tell, it doesn't even resemble a shofar. I have difficulty processing how you could look at that image and think it looks like a shofar, even if youre trying to find the slightest hint of a dogwhistle. It's like if you said that the main character in RDR2 rides a sidesaddle. But thats what i struggle with. I know that a lot of people spread rumours without verifying, but what about the people that have seen both the game horn and a shofar? Is it a gutsy assumption that nobody will call them on something even if it's blatantly apparent that it's false? Is it a deliberate attempt to call a deer a horse, or make people say there are five lights? Or do they honestly, truly, in their heart of hearts believe it? It seems impossible enough that I feel like I have to be missing something, and the two horns really do have more in common than saying that a Cessna is clearly the Red Baron's Fokker Dr.I.
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There is a comment in the linked Reddit thread by someone with relevant experience who says that it is indeed not a Shofar, and also that the "anti-Semitic cheese" thing is also a massive reach (since Kosher cheese basically didn't exist for a long-ass time at all).
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