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What do we do? We marvel at the fact that Emil's up on Twitter and his website is not given the Kiwifarms treatment.
Interracial rape is understandably a great cause for flame war in the US, and also not something I care about. My model is mainly that black people are all-around more impulsive, more criminal, more violent and more tribal; the specific distribution of the impact of those differences is downstream of contingent factors like relative population densities, laws, housing, policing etc.
That said, @Gdanning's analysis (Kirkegaard's sources discuss the question too) reminds me of another politically incorrect and statistically literate author, La Griffe du Lion, whose website is even more of a marvelous fossil. He has developed a model of ghettoization/white flight based on selective victimization of non-blacks by blacks. It seems to comport with anecdotal reports like that man who bought Pine Bluff, Arkansas and with the graph in Emil's piece.
Anyway, Crime in the Hood, November 1999:
The measure of «systemic» power that progressives like to talk about – systemic racism, patriarchy, etc. – is an ability to make outcomes that hurt your outgroup look like they follow from natural, inevitable processes, long in motion through no living person's fault. Some things are genuinely this way; others are only made to assume this form. For example, by making unwarranted promises of miracle solutions, and suppressing public awareness of and interest in more feasible alternative routes for so long that they become technically obsolete or politically unfeasible.
As you can note, this article is over 23 years old. People not yet born then have formed strong political opinions. We haven't progressed even on talking points. So I don't think there's much to «do» about it all. Like Yevgeny Ponasenkov said 8 years ago: «If you couldn't do it in a 1000 years, what are 20 more to you? Look, Russia can develop normally and it's not about 20 or a 1000 years, a lot can be done in a single year, if there's a honest admission that we were making mistakes here and there, and now will follow another path. Okay? Only – not «our special path», in the ditch, with empty shops and towards 1937. There exists the history of Civilization, everything there has been tried, conclusions proven, we are buying everything from there now – cars, phones, clothing, food… and all mistakes are also on display there, you only have to not replicate them. That's all. So we need to admit: yes, we were mistaken, no, we will no longer search for our special path that doesn't exist, we're going forward, in the correct, Western, so to speak, direction». You know what Western direction we took.
None of this was exactly unanticipated before La Griffe either. Black impulsivity, criminality and tribalism are factors that have been known for centuries; the intuitive solution is: high priors for black proclivity for antisocial behavior, therefore unequal treatment, either by segregation (cheap, only protects whites) or in the manner of policing (medium, somewhat protects blacks) and state-mandated upbringing (very hard, actually helps them).
But after a few generations grow up on a steady diet of mocking the very premise of the problem, it doesn't matter what facts you show them: their thought trajectories cannot exit the basin where this problem can be divorced from white people problems and where solutions which do not amount to doubling down on total society-spanning surveillance exist. «All rape should be investigated and the culprit found», indeed. We have a discount on CCTV systems with integrated gait recognition!
Also
theyarethesamepicture.jpeg
You are against the latter because it's attacking the civil liberties of the White majority in the name of curtailing the threat posed by the Black minority. How is it different from attacking the civil liberties of the non-criminal majority of Blacks in the name of curtailing the thread posed by the criminal minority?
First, I reject the symmetry. Whites have built that country; whites and non-blacks overwhelmingly maintain it. Whites as living heirs to this culture do have a priority in deciding its rules, and are entitled to demand assimilation from those who want equal treatment; you do not get to demand equal liberty if you want to belong to an assabiyah which does not value that liberty and does not contribute to its preservation. Oranians have found that few are interested to join on those terms
(This reminds me: in Stephenson's Diamond Age, a white thug contemplated joining a Boer neo-tribe but decided against it).
Second, they are indeed the same picture, in that something always restricts our liberties and modifies our behavior. Questions are: who, whom, how much and to what end. Right now, the behavior of both whites and blacks is being modified by disparately acting stimuli like this one, which encourage guilt, self-hatred and undue tolerance in whites and unmerited indignation and racial pride in blacks. The broader structure does little to buck those trends. This begets problems, which call for solutions of the type that I would like to have abandoned.
If instead blacks were vigorously (I cannot know the optimal degree of that) pressed into church-going and other easy forms of prosocial networking, provided with schools that focus on rote learning and unambiguous discipline, systemically shamed for dysfunctional family structures and criminality, dissuaded from what our friend calls «honor culture», denied opportunities to build antisocial status hierarchies and endow them with externally validated prestige and capital, etc., or even just not encouraged to be delusional, there would be less of a problem. I believe that a separate Black America would have had a decent chance to independently arrive at this strategy and eventually become more successful (assuming continued economic interaction with the US) than the current black population of the US. This would entail some sacrifice on part of those prosocial blacks who want to have it all, white standards of living and black culture and no police state. Such is life: something has to give, in this case the «black culture» has to develop adaptations to co-existence with non-blacks, at the very least being willing to meet them halfway.
It is hard or utterly impossible to implement within the same non-segregated society, especially a society that does not recognize the root of the problem.
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What possesses a man to do this? What drives a clean-cut, techno-optimist, science-tinkering Mormon with three kids to deal with arsonists (and arsonists). To be held at gunpoint. To interact continuously with thieves (and thieves, and intruders, and thieves, and thieves, and thieves, and thieves, and thieves, and thieves, and…I could go on), derelicts (and, and, and, …). To be assaulted by a zoning bureaucrat. To drive around a recently-purchased 220k square foot abandoned warehouse late at night. To livestream council sessions passionately deriding slow-moving approvals to apathetic council members, and to do it again, and yet to have no ready, coherent answer to the objection of building and zoning laws. To live in a house with contaminated water. And yet, despite all of this, to continue to persevere.
Mental illness. We don't call it possession anymore. We often don't call it a mental illness either these days. Neurodivergence.
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I read this twice. I have pretty good reading comprehension skills. You have tested those skills. Can you summerize your comment in plain and non-flowery language what you feel about about the artical OP posted? I'm sure if you summed it up in a few sentences it would help us all avoid a misunderstanding.
My point, if you will, is that the intellectual core of the left-wing political project, such as there is, has been well aware of the evidence for extreme black criminality (both in general and in this specific white-targeting sense) for many generations, probably 2+ centuries, and abundantly well aware in the last few decades. That making unwarrantable promises about possible rectification of the issue, moving from desegregation to stigmatising white flight to forced integration, suppressing evidence of the futility of attempts to rectify the issue, censoring and harassing people who propose workable solutions, encouraging and valorizing antisocial blacks, and other leftist stratagems have been at least partially rational. (Partially, because I assume that the overwhelming majority of rank and file have been sincerely deceived people, emotionally manipulated useful idiots and just conformists).
That the outcome of this approach is a society where neither workable solutions nor even crude measures like a return to segregation are politically possible, because the doctrine of equal treatment has been burned into people's minds, but the problem exists and prompts people to support genuine policy preferences of that intellectual core that have been unchanged at least since H.G. Wells and Stalin sympathizers, namely: increase of the power of the centralized state, more political propaganda in state-mandated education, prohibition of guns, blanket surveillance, and other steps towards disempowering laymen in favor of a political priesthood that determines the angle of propaganda and otherwise guides state efforts.
Likewise for other aspects of the racial issue and superficial leftist egalitarianism.
Is that plain enough?
And yet, throughout those years, the black homicide offending rate (used here as a proxy for extreme criminality - rape rates are notoriously hard to define since they depend not only on how often the crime is committed but also on how often it is reported, since it is so dependent on actually being reported) has gone down, indeed gone down considerably.
Clearly something must have happened, whether that is a result of left-wing policies, right-wing policies (but if it's the result of successful right-wing policies, it would be evidence that leftist hegemony in society is not quite as firm as claimed), or things like potential offenders just staying inside to smoke weed and play violent computer games (but even then the legality of weed and comparative lack of regulation for violent games have been policy issues in themselves). The issue is being partially rectified, and that's what counts, no? It still is rather more important whether people are actually getting murdered or not than what the actual ethnic ratios of the murderers are.
Wait, that spike in the white homicide graph in 2001... It can't be that they threw 9/11 under "homicides by whites," surely?
Rates are now back up to 90s levels, although not yet quite as bad as the peak of the "crack wars" that saw the highest murder rates in US history. Wikipedia for some reason hasn't chosen to update its graphs for 6 years to show this.
It seems like an issue can go from "partially rectified" to "spiralling out of control" in a matter of months, raising the concern that whatever policies caused the drop were just papering over an unsolved problem.
Why wouldn't they? It was, indeed, homicide, and it was, as a matter of fact, performed by people whom the official government racial classification scheme classifies as whites. Sure, this is a huge outlier, but I don't see why should this require us to treat it specially.
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Probably not. Though I guess the order of magnitude is about right for such a trick.
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I thought murders have gone down across the board until recently? I thought decreased exposure to lead leads to decreases in putting lead in a 3P.
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You know that part of the reason is them staying, but not exactly home. Sailer likes to return to this point. His other favorite example of things that work – in the exact period in question –is the tough-on-crime New York city policing. And yes, sure: this goes to show that liberal hegemony is not total.
On the other hand, such «triumphs» of forcefully managed diversity only reinforce the impression which I claim is the goal: that only an overbearing police state can solve the problem of black crime. NYPD is an army unto itself. What was that Madison's quote about standing armies?
Not sure. Technically people are always getting murdered so you mean «less often», but sure, lower murder rate is desirable. On the other hand, murder (and other sorts of violent crime such as rape) is, while terminally bad, already a very unlikely risk in the lives of most people (except black men of prime age, I guess), far below suicide and health problems. So I'd say it's up for debate whether the racially motivated gaslighting of the overwhelming majority is rather less important than the exact size of the very small minority that does get murdered. People fear death and violence, fear appearing to support murderism, and can be blackmailed into approving any absurdity, tolerating any indignity if it seems to mean less death and violence. There should be some resistance to this exploit.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'd rather live in a place with 4-5ish murders per 100k but fewer cops and CCTVs than in London or Moscow or Chennai or NYC. And less gaslighting, please.
I imagine many black people would, if educated to think about this seriously, prefer a different point on the Pareto frontier – either an even laxer one, or one radically less liberal. I think both me and them should be free to explore those options, but not at the expense of others who don't subscribe to our philosophies.
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"Imprisoned criminals are less likely to murder, than if they were allowed to be free." is a possible explanation, which requires policies (prisons still existing) supported, until recently, by all but the most radical leftists. It certainly doesn't required non-leftists to hold any significant power, as long as centre-left still believes in at least temporarily separating rapists, murderers, and thieves from normal people.
Sure, almost everyone supports imprisoning criminals, but there's still a sliding scale as to how readily a society will imprison people, how long the sentences are etc. and those are generally left-right issues.
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Si
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Not to disparage your comprehension skills, but the points he's making are fairly simple:
Even if the research is spot on, what can be done?
This is not new, here's a study from 1994 that has similarly ugly conclusions, but there is no will to do anything about it.
The conclusions of the research were not unanticipated. In fact the motives behind the results have been understood for centuries.
Power is demonstrated by the ability to make outcomes that hurt people you don't like look like they occur naturally.
To solve the problem people need to admit they were wrong. They would rather keep searching for a solution that doesn't exist, rather than admit that the research shows what they think is unfavorable (in this case, black criminals prey on whites, and this has a direct correlation with white flight).
You can come up with all the facts you want, but there is no way around the problem that people understand the will to power.
To wit: they have now responded. If I were to be uncharitable thier more plain language version sounds more like mien kamph than rationalist. Peel back another layer and we might get there. But I am being charitable. They are right that "straw folk" ...i mean "woke folk" ignore statistics and don't seem to have anwers. But the implication that they push, and it's right there, is that some white nationalism is in order. That's what I wanted them to more articulately express so no one can misunderstand.
This subthread was a shitshow, and you racked up an impressive number of reports.
You need to speak plainly, and avoid making inflammatory accusations with little evidence.
5 day ban
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Thanks for providing an example. Since you have been molded by those efforts I describe, your conclusion is to pattern-match me to Hitler while handwaving away the mendacity of egalitarians like mere good-natured statistical ignorance and chortling about strawmen – rather than pattern-match their conspicuous denial of harm their policies cause to a hostile conspiracy, and dismiss alarms going off at me.
It's funny that you contrast the «white nationalist» reading to a «rationalist» one. Rationalists deal in hypotheses and adjustment of priors. Do you think you are being a better rationalist?
People's beliefs are determined by attractors built over years of indoctrination, so the word vomit they spew is largely post hoc rationalization for what they already can't not believe. Like I say:
Like you say:
Oooh, you caught me. It's right there. We can't have that, can we? I mean, repelling Section 8 or, G-d forbid, legalizing nonviolent race-exclusionary communities that you don't have to be rich or nonwhite to get into would be the worst, right right? Tearing that down in South Africa is a great success story, correct? Some fucking whiteys are still resisting, but it's clearly not acceptable and will be made unsustainable.
I appreciate the self-confidence.
That too, but you know, I can take a bit more beating. Be my guest.
Oh this is fun! I've been banned from reddit so many times I finally gave up three years ago. Everytime for calling out the "woke left". Do you even know what they are? I can educate you as a "leftwinger" and we can circle jerk about what cucks they are and that sounds hot. But I am suspecious that you might think I am gay.
My self confidence about your trajectory is confirmed by this very comment. Socratic method works!
I really don't need to say anything. You have said what I wanted you to say.
I think you misunderstand the «Socratic method», but you're welcome to keep going. (BTW, is the typo in your flair intentional?)
Your success at this would be logically inconsistent with the premise of my being afraid to speak plainly. Now, how about you speak plainly, without bald assertions in the style of
and self-congratulatory vague bullshit like
You appeal to forum rules and culture. There's a norm here against darkly hinting and insinuating, and also against building consensus. If you believe your conclusions are so self-evident that none could misunderstand, you clearly can afford to spell them out while you're at it. Running victory laps high on your own supply is pretty cringe.
Lol. I'm 8 deep. All I keep saying is that you can keep talking. I encourage you to keep talking. My goal is to hear you talk. I like talking to you. I want to hear you. You are seen and heard. This is me speaking plainly. I want to hear you. But you are not so good at being heard.
What do you think are my motives? Do you believe I have an agenda? By what mechanism are black folk different from white folk such that the only solution is segregation or some such?
You are loved.
Answering a question with a stream of questions and vague platitudes is a foolish strategy. I ask you again to substantiate your mention of Mein Kampf specifically, and to describe what you think is damning in my posts without building consensus by circularly pointing to what I've written and going «see? see?».
By generic mechanisms of divergent evolution over the last 50 thousand years or so, which has resulted in inherently different norms of reaction on a large number of socially relevant traits, including cognitive ability, impulsivity, aggression, time preference, self-esteem. As a result, the distribution of outcomes of black people is a poor fit for a majority-white culture: it naturally puts a plurality of them into an underclass, dragging down the rest, while burdening everyone else with supporting and guarding against an underclass of a size that a majority-white society is not well equipped for; and it is not very ethical that this be solved at the expense of whites, especially by having them cope with lower standards.
Ironically I agree with you that promotion of institutional religiosity and strong family structure would «improve» blacks' outcomes relative to whites' ones, and diminish the whole problem. It's akin to the third option in my post («state-mandated upbringing») which you accuse of being too flowery and obscurantist. But doing so in practice would amount to social engineering, and I don't see how it could succeed without acknowledging facts on the ground, which is to say, inherently different norms of reaction and the necessity of disparate treatment, or indeed comprehensively different social environments.
I am well aware of being loved, but this transparent passive aggressive behavior is not welcome here. I don't mean I take issue with it, but mods may. If you want to keep being clever, do remember that we aren't on Reddit.
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You missed the point of my comment. I was well aware of what they were saying. I wanted them to say it plainly so they couldn't hide what they really felt behind flowery, obtuse pseudo intellectual languge.
Then say that?
Not to disparage your reading comprehension but that should have been obvious by the words I used. I was just being diplomatic and charitable as peer the forum's culture and rules.
This is hilarious; the entire apparent point of your comment chain was to get someone else to speak plainly. But for you it's okay to be arch and clever and whatever.
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My mistake. I assumed you were making a request in good faith. I won't make that mistake again.
One of the rules here is to speak in plain language. OP was using obtuse languge to say something they were afraid to say in plain language. In plain language I asked them to clarify. My motivations for doing that are irrelevant. It is the socratic method. Something promoted on this forum all the time. It is part of civil discourse and completely inline with this forum's culture. You might as well criticize me for asking a question that you have no good answer to...which is exactly what you are doing.
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