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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   34912 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 3, 2025

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If I'm advising a hypothetical DeSantis administration (i.e. accepting the basic premises of MAGA foreign policy thought, but ignoring Trump's personal beefs with Zelenskyy and apparent mancrush on Putin) then my strategic analysis is along the lines of:

  • Ukraine is in Europe.
  • The aims of US policy in Europe are (1) to encourage the Europeans to pay more of the cost of defending Europe [unspoken - from Russia] and (2) to prevent Europe (and the EU in particular) from developing the ability to act in a coordinated way contrary to US interests. This is hard because these aims are almost but not quite contradictory.
  • In particular, Taiwan (and containing China more broadly) is worth more to the US than Ukraine (and containing Russia more broadly), but this matters less than you think because a land war going on right now and a possible naval war in the future draw on different weapon stockpiles with different supply chains.
  • The so-called "rules based international order" is valuable to America, most importantly because it discourages nuclear proliferation. A world where Putin gets what he wants because he is a nuclear madman and DeSantis isn't is a world where a lot of countries are going to build nukes, and a few are going to act like nuclear madmen.
  • Russia's goal is to subjugate Ukraine (probably by installing a pro-Russian puppet government similar to Lukashenko in Belarus). Putin has been explicit about this. "Neutrality" is a furphy - a "neutral" Ukraine would not be able to avoid subjugation without some kind of western security guarantee which Russia would consider a violation of neutrality. In the failed Istanbul negotiations, Russia was far more concerned about "neutrality" than territory, and their idea of neutrality incorporated an explicit treaty commitment by the USA, the UK, and France not to intervene if Russia attacked Ukraine again. Note that from a European perspective, a "neutral" Ukraine is also one that wouldn't be able to prevent Russia crossing its territory in order to attack other European countries.
  • The key known unknown is Putin's intentions after subjugating Ukraine. The Mearsheimer view is that Russia wants to incorporate Ukraine into their sphere of influence, that this is reasonable because Ukraine is a natural part of the Russian sphere of influence, and that once Russia controls its natural sphere of influence Russia will not, for realist reasons, want to engage in continued aggression. The Putler view is that Russia is engaging in what lefties call "imperialism", Paradox players call "blobbing", and academics with sticks up their asses call something like "opportunistic expansionism". 200 years of Russian policy suggest that Russia sees its natural sphere of influence extending at least as far as the Vistula, and public statements by Putin administration officials are consistent with this, as is Russia's campaign of cyberattacks, election interference, WMD terrorism etc.
  • If the Putler view is correct, then failing to defend Ukraine is a mistake. It is a survivable mistake for the US, but a catastrophic one for Europe. (To paraphrase Churchill, if we appease Putler in Ukraine then the US will get dishonour, but the EU will get war).
  • Apart from Putin's intentions, there are no important secrets here. The Russians, Ukrainians, Europeans, Chinese etc. all know the same things we do. In particular, the Europeans know that Ukraine is near-existential if the Putler view is correct.
  • A strategic deal with Russia is not worth it if it means throwing Europe under the bus, because Europe is an order of magnitude more valuable as a trade partner and as an ally against China.

And the resulting policy recommendation is:

  • In the early days of the war, support for Ukraine is cheap and there is an outside chance of solving the Russia problem (if Russia either cuts and runs or offers a reasonable deal once it becomes clear that they can't win quickly). The Biden policy of providing cheap help like intel, and older weapons which were going to be replaced in the next 5-10 years anyway was a good one.
  • Once it becomes clear that this is a long war, and that support for Ukraine is going to start coming out of the budget rather than existing idle resources, the goal is to maintain a leading role while dumping the economic cost on Europe. So say, first quietly and then loudly, that the US is happy to continue helping Ukraine, but after some reasonable period of time (3-6 months) they are not going to do so for free. Then follow through - based on the above analysis the Europeans will grumble, but pay up. The US should chip in enough to retain a seat at the table - say 10-20% of the cost.
  • Engage in some performative show of strength in the Pacific to make clear that this is a pivot and not a bugout.
  • Support the European-funded response. Sell anything the US can produce that Ukraine wants on normal commercial terms. Encourage US arms manufacturers to prioritise orders bound for Ukraine (which is at war) over orders for the US (which is not). Share intel if you already have it or can acquire it cheaply. If Musk refuses to provide Starlink service to the AFU on normal commercial terms, then he doesn't get US government contracts.
  • Support the economic war against Russia, particularly in ways which directly promote US interests. (An energy-rich America is an economic competitor to Russia). Drill, baby, drill. Tank the oil price. Build out LNG export capacity. Name and shame the German businessmen who are trading with Russia via Kyrgyzstan.
  • Points about public diplomacy which shouldn't need saying but apparently do - don't lie for the benefit of a domestic audience, because everyone can see you lying. Don't take sadistic pleasure in selling out Ukraine, because it strongly suggests you would sell out Taiwan as well. Don't endorse Russophile right-populist parties in western Europe. Talk like you are leading a coalition, stamp US flags on US-made weapons the Germans are paying for, etc. etc. - the whole point is to gain the benefits of leading the free world while shirking the cost.
  • What is the win condition? We were seeing it in January/February this year. The combination of the cumulative impact of sanctions, the increasingly effective Ukrainian drone war, and the lame-duck Biden administration's decision to allow Ukraine to use western weapons to attack targets on Russian territory means that Russian logistics are falling apart. (The west, on the other hand, has near-infinite logistical capacity). If Russia doesn't come to terms while they can still supply the army in Ukraine, then the army is destroyed and they lose everything including Crimea - so they probably will.
  • If Putin does come to terms, offer face-saving concessions (Ukraine in the EU but not NATO, possibly international recognition of Russian rule in Crimea if they still control it) but not substantive ones.

Your plan just looks like the Biden plan, but the Biden plan is what got Ukraine invaded to start with.

I suppose if I look extra hard its like the Trump plan but super slow and tediously done with no real offramps for the US.

In either case its a silly plan. "Support European-funded response" might as well read "Spread Unicorn horn dust". Also, "support the economic war..." its not possible. The Euros sabotaged that capability by going green.

No, this looks exactly to me like the kind of half-pregnant sort of plan that "serious people" opted into with Iraq and Afghanistan. At least if you came to me with a serious decapitation plan with SEAL teams and assassinations and sabotage of Russian nuclear facilities I could take you seriously. This, I cannot.

If the Putler view is correct, then failing to defend Ukraine is a mistake. It is a survivable mistake for the US, but a catastrophic one for Europe. (To paraphrase Churchill, if we appease Putler in Ukraine then the US will get dishonour, but the EU will get war).

You lost me here. The idea that Russia is even capable of threatening more conquest is just silly. Ukraine was the softest target in Europe, and Putin has spent years beating his head against it. Both Ukraine and Russia have been bled dry by the war, so even if Putin won a total victory today he still wouldn't get back the manpower and materiel he spent conquering it. There is no way that he's going to come off a victory in Ukraine and move on to Poland, especially not after Poland has had so much time to prepare. And Poland wouldn't even have to fight Russia alone, since it's a NATO member. Given that Putin couldn't even get a clean win against Ukraine, it's safe to say that if he ever goes toe-to-toe with the core members of NATO his ass is grass.

Russia is poor and weak, and it just spent a whole bunch of its dwindling manpower to laboriously pry a few provinces out of Ukraine's cold, dead hands. This was its last gasp.

Ukraine was the softest target in Europe

Ukraine had the largest army in Europe outside of Russia. It had conscription and a pretty large pool of veterans of the conflict with Russia that started in 2014. It had a decent amount of Soviet weaponry, including SAM systems (largest in Europe) that prevented Russia from gaining air superiority. Last but not least, Ukraine is large that allowed them to consolidate defense. A small country would be wiped out if Russians advanced 150 km.

Of all the countries neighboring Russia in Europe (China would definitely be a different matter), Ukraine was the hardest target. Putin invaded for two reasons: he expected Ukraine to fold and not defend (essentially a repeat of Crimea capture but with some token fighting) and secondly, of all targets, Ukraine is the most precious. Subjugating Ukraine would make all the other countries that are not NATO protected to become subjugated, too.

The Baltics exist. They are a lot weaker than Ukraine. By helping Ukraine, we do two things:

  • Demonstrate our credibility in defending countries against Russian aggression
  • Degrade Russia's war fighting capacity

Both of which deters Russia from messing with the Baltics later on. Yes, the Baltic states are in NATO, which precisely makes it worse, because fighting over them has a good chance of leading to WW3 or nuclear Armageddon, with a far higher likelihood than a war in Ukraine. So in this case, "we fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here" makes sense. It's also not even "we fight them over there", it's "we give the Ukrainians weapons so they can fight them over there" which makes the calculus even better.

I believe the current NATO assessment is that Russia's warfighting capacity has increased and that it will be stronger and better-prepared to fight NATO after the hostilities end.

I'm not aware of that assessment but it's not unbelievable the Russian military at this point in time is more capable than it was in 2022, simply because of the necessity to fight a high intensity conflict in Ukraine. However, long term Russian war fighting capacity is still being degraded due to the accumulating effects of battlefield losses, economic sanctions and their inefficient war economy. The more we can deplete their strategic reserves, cause more casualties, and inflict economic damage, the less of a threat Russia is in the long term, and the more time they'll need to re-organize and re-arm before their next military adventure.

So if Ukraine capitulates today and Russia decides to immediately shift to attacking NATO, then, yes, that would indeed be a poor outcome. If we keep supporting Ukraine and Russia gives up because of war exhaustion, that's the best outcome. If we keep supporting Ukraine and it becomes a frozen conflict, it's still a good outcome because Russia is still occupied with Ukraine. If we keep supporting Ukraine and it eventually loses in a year or two, that would be suboptimal but still better than forcing Ukraine to capitulate now since it will keep Russia occupied for longer, depleting more of their resources, and they'll need a longer recovery period to reconstitute their strength before they can think about attacking the countries we really care about.

However, long term Russian war fighting capacity is still being degraded due to the accumulating effects of battlefield losses, economic sanctions and their inefficient war economy. The more we can deplete their strategic reserves, cause more casualties, and inflict economic damage, the less of a threat Russia is in the long term, and the more time they'll need to re-organize and re-arm before their next military adventure.

Yes, the Russians have blown through their Soviet-era artillery munitions stockpile. But pull back for a second. When was the American military more capable, 1941 or 1945 after taking a million casualties? Was the US more of a threat over the long term after 1945 or less of one?

Or heck, let's say you think the US isn't a good comparison because we destroyed all of Europe's industry. Fine, let's take Russia - more of a threat in 1941 or 1945 after losing 27 million people? I'm sure that theoretically caused them long term problems but we still had a couple of decades where "nuking Germany repeatedly" was basically our best bet at stopping them.

If we keep supporting Ukraine and it eventually loses in a year or two, that would be suboptimal but still better than forcing Ukraine to capitulate now since it will keep Russia occupied for longer, depleting more of their resources, and they'll need a longer recovery period to reconstitute their strength before they can think about attacking the countries we really care about.

I think this is context-dependent on what we're supporting Ukraine with. If we're supporting them with our own munitions stockpiles and we're sending weapons to Ukraine faster than we can reconstitute them, then we'll be the ones needing a long recovery period. This knife also cuts both ways when it comes to advanced weapons systems, the more of which we supply Ukraine with the less capable they will be if we ever use them against Russia.

Russia has blown through its stockpiles and it is not doing well economically, which impacts its military production and force generation. Sure, their military capability might have increased through adaptations and experience, especially with drones, but it's not a significant departure from their army in 2022. In fact, in terms of equipment, their formations are probably less mechanized today than three years ago. I don't see a parallel between the Russia today and the US or USSR from 1945.

Yes, if we (NATO) are depleting our materiel faster than we are depleting that of Russia, then that's a problem. So far, I don't see good evidence that's the case. Further, Ukraine itself is also producing a significant amount of war materiel like ammo, armored vehicles and drones, so having Ukraine by our side is still better than forcing it to surrender.

it is not doing well economically

Hmm. A quick Google tells me they made 3.6% growth last year. That seems...fine. Better than the US, even.

So far, I don't see good evidence that's the case.

How large was the collective NATO artillery park in 2022 versus now? How about tanks? Mines-clearing vehicles?

Why is Germany's military now less ready than it was in 2022, falling to 50% readiness rates? Probably has nothing to do with shipping gear to Ukraine (spoiler: it has something to do with shipping gear to Ukraine).

I feel like you are just trying for gotchas without addressing the core of my argument here.

EDIT: but let me just respond quickly - The 3.6% growth number is self-reported by Russia, no longer independently verifiable because they stopped reporting a lot of their economic stats after the war started. Even if taken as true at face value, we know that they are experiencing high inflations even with record high interest rates, 21% to be exact, this indicates any economic growth is propped up by an aggressive fiscal policy that's unsustainable. But what are you actually arguing for with the 3.6% number, which is apparently better than the US? Are you claiming that Russians are simply immune to the effects of economic sanctions (then why do they want those lifted?), and having a sizable portion of their work-force and industrial output being blown up in Ukraine is actually good for their economy?

The NATO equipment parks questions, I don't know. I have not seen people do analysis on NATO equipment numbers from satellite imagery, unlike the Russian equipment parks. But if you have a link, I'd be interested. My premise is that we (NATO) are not depleting our materiel faster than Russia is. Germany's readiness going down from 65% to 50% is evidence that one of the NATO countries is being affected, it does not demonstrate NATO as a whole is seeing lower readiness numbers. For example, at least Poland is seeing an increase of its own military capabilities. And even if NATO is seeing a net depletion of its own reserves, it does not demonstrate that it is depleting it at a rate higher than Russia. We have a visual database of equipment losses that tracks individual equipment types for us to estimate the relative loss rates between Russian and NATO equipment (The page actually links to Ukrainian losses as a whole, of which only a fraction is NATO supplied equipment). Also, even if this is a problem, the correct solution is to increase NATO's military production, kind of like what EU is doing right now, rather than ceding Ukraine to Russia. Again, I remind you that Ukraine is producing a significant amount of its own weapons and under no circumstances that NATO + Ukraine vs Russia is worse than NATO vs Russia + Ukraine.

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How is it going to fight NATO if it can't even take more than 1/5th of Ukraine?

Yes Russia's progress has been slowed heavily thanks to US aid. But presumably "fighting NATO" would imply levels of direct involvement from the US and its allies beyond what we've seen in Ukraine.

I mean - it probably isn't. I don't think Vladimir Putin wants to fight NATO. That's part of why he attacked Ukraine before they joined up.

But without copious amounts of American air power I do think that the Russians would tear a hole through NATO EU right now (well assuming away the fact that their hands are full of Ukrainians). The Europeans are just not ready to deal with Russia casually vomiting thousands of drones, mines, and cruise missiles in their direction and then sending a hundred nominally obsolete tanks to do donuts in the rubble. The European cope is that Ukraine's NATO-trained troops are actually retards and that NATO's indigenous ways of knowing modern means of warfighting would carry the day but I think the truth is that we're witnessing fires lap maneuver again and they would get shellacked.

Once it becomes clear that this is a long war, and that support for Ukraine is going to start coming out of the budget rather than existing idle resources, the goal is to maintain a leading role while dumping the economic cost on Europe. So say, first quietly and then loudly, that the US is happy to continue helping Ukraine, but after some reasonable period of time (3-6 months) they are not going to do so for free. Then follow through - based on the above analysis the Europeans will grumble, but pay up. The US should chip in enough to retain a seat at the table - say 10-20% of the cost.

This is the part that seems like the lynchpin to me. Suppose that the Europeans reasonably believe, as they have for 50 years now, that they can call America's bluff here and either not pony up, or only pony up for things that are not useful to the war effort like expanded benefits for servicemembers? Are we willing to back that up by writing off Europe? Is Europe able to hold us hostage by putting a knife to their own throats?

The whole point of my argument is that very visibly phasing out free support for Ukraine (while continuing to offer paid-for support) unambiguously forces the decision, under circumstances where Europe has more to lose than the US if support for Ukraine ceases. If the US was following my approach and Europe didn't pay up*, then US support for Ukraine would cease at the end of the phase-out period and Europe would be faced with the even more visible choice between ponying up and watching Ukraine lose.

* Note that Europe has, in fact, been paying about 60% of the financial cost of supporting Ukraine, although this is arguably less than our "fair share" given that it is our backyard and not yours.

Now the US has forced Europe to put up or shut up, the bond market thinks that Germany is going to borrow a lot of money to pay for rearmament, and the usual suspects on the British left are freaking out about Rachael Reeves looking for welfare cuts to pay for rearmament. So Europe acting collectively to defend Ukraine is likely - but in our timeline it is going to be implicitly anti-American in a way which could have been avoided by smarter US policy.

Note that Europe has, in fact, been paying about 60% of the financial cost of supporting Ukraine, although this is arguably less than our "fair share" given that it is our backyard and not yours.

It's possible that, since the start of the war, the EU has supported Russia more than Ukraine via its imports of natural gas and oil.

I ran this by AI, and it seems eminently plausible. Here's what Grok says about EU purchases from Russia since the start of the war, although I wouldn't take it as gospel:

Value: The financial cost is estimated at €125–156 billion for this period, with 2024 alone seeing €21.9 billion spent on Russian fossil fuels (oil and gas), per reports from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and The Guardian. This exceeds the €18.7 billion in financial aid to Ukraine in 2024, highlighting a persistent economic link despite sanctions.

The comparison is a bit unfair because Russia doesn't produce natural gas for free, so it's not all profit. But still, it's fair to say that the EU is funding both sides of the war. Kinda like the US funding both sides of the Israel/Hamas conflict.

It's possible that, since the start of the war, the EU has supported Russia more than Ukraine via its imports of natural gas and oil.

I am struggling to determine if this is correct. It appears to be true insofar as it considers financial aid (not military or humanitarian aid) from EU institutions. If you include all types of aid, and include European countries themselves as donors (rather than EU bodies), it is not true, from what I can tell.

(1) https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/28489/ukrainian-military-humanitarian-and-financial-aid-donors/ (2) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more-russian-oil-gas-than-financial-aid-ukraine-report

Excellent summary.

I think making Ukraine (and Europe in general) something the Europeans solve for themselves is good for both parties. America simply doesn’t have the resources to put hundreds of billions into Europe when there are lots of hotspots popping up across the globe. It doesn’t work logistically. But at the same time, I don’t think it works for European countries who have become extensions of American foreign policy in their own territories. They really don’t have a strong enough military to deal with European military threats because the assumption has always been “we don’t need to be ready for war because Americans will defend us.. We can’t do that, even the USA probably doesn’t have the manpower to fight in Taiwan and Eastern Europe at the same time. Add in a flare up in MENA and you’re asking the impossible.

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