Sunshine
12d ago
Trump announced in a post last night that he was considering voiding the last minute preemptive Biden pardons of Fauci, members of January 6 House committee, and others, because an "autopen" was used to sign the pardons. Presidential authority to grant pardons is very broad, and apparently autopen has been used by prior presidents; looks like a losing case if it goes before the Supreme Court.
The version I heard was that the EOs and pardons are being voided on the basis that Biden wasn't aware of them. As in, someone else wrote the pardons and EOs and signed them with Biden's signature without any involvement from the President himself. If true, the autopen is not the source of the issue.
If the Putler view is correct, then failing to defend Ukraine is a mistake. It is a survivable mistake for the US, but a catastrophic one for Europe. (To paraphrase Churchill, if we appease Putler in Ukraine then the US will get dishonour, but the EU will get war).
You lost me here. The idea that Russia is even capable of threatening more conquest is just silly. Ukraine was the softest target in Europe, and Putin has spent years beating his head against it. Both Ukraine and Russia have been bled dry by the war, so even if Putin won a total victory today he still wouldn't get back the manpower and materiel he spent conquering it. There is no way that he's going to come off a victory in Ukraine and move on to Poland, especially not after Poland has had so much time to prepare. And Poland wouldn't even have to fight Russia alone, since it's a NATO member. Given that Putin couldn't even get a clean win against Ukraine, it's safe to say that if he ever goes toe-to-toe with the core members of NATO his ass is grass.
Russia is poor and weak, and it just spent a whole bunch of its dwindling manpower to laboriously pry a few provinces out of Ukraine's cold, dead hands. This was its last gasp.
Sunshine
29d ago
He defined Conflict Theory in an unusual way, I think. Scott says that Conflict Theory is disproven because people don't act in their own best interests.
That means that, from his perspective, "The other tribe is attacking us because they hate us and want us to die," is actually a statement of Mistake Theory, not Conflict Theory. Because hate is irrational and therefore a mistake, people being motivated to conflict by their irrational hatred is taken as evidence for Mistake Theory rather than against it.
I think a lot of people use those terms differently, but I also agree with Scott on this one. The logical conclusion of Mistake Theory is that everyone just needs to get smarter and stop making mistakes and the problem will go away. That means that proving that the conflict is irrational really is a knock-down argument against Conflict Theory. If the Conflict is a Mistake, then it can be solved with better policy.
Sunshine
1mo ago
This is beautiful. However, it doesn't account for the collapse in the price of gold when Elon Musk takes a spaceship to Psyche 16 and flies it back with 100 quintillion USD worth of gold. We'll be using it as paperweights by the end.
It would be safer to peg it to a basket of goods.
Sunshine
1mo ago
If overdose deaths are suicides, then they're accidental suicides. The proper term for an accidental suicide is "fatal accident". Normally, when someone suffers a serious accident but survives, we give them medical attention to try to keep them alive.
I actually don't have a problem with suicide, provided it's intentional and done right. I think the authorities should make you wait a few weeks to confirm you're really sure you want to die, then shoot you up with lots of fun but deadly drugs.
What I do have a problem with is denying lifesaving treatment to people on the (unproven!) basis that they're a drain on society.
I am skeptical of any plan that involves causing large numbers of people to die on the basis that the world would be better off without them. What if it isn't? You would have just caused a bunch of deaths for no reason.
It'd be pretty embarrassing if you wiped out all the heroin addicts, then a few months later someone came out with a new AI-devised wonderdrug that can cure all addictions with a single pill.
Sunshine
1mo ago
I think you have this backwards. If Eric Adams goes down, it's a reasonable bet the next Mayor of New York will be uncooperative with immigration enforcement. He's not being rewarded for abandoning his duty, he's being extorted into doing his duty because the Feds have dirt on him. If there was no dirt on him then the Feds wouldn't have any leverage.
This is a false equivalence.
First of all, "Radical leftists want to undermine America" is itself a bit more Fox News than I think we normally go. I would probably say something more like "The left wants to weaken America's military, so of course they support closing overseas bases." I think a lot of leftists would actually agree with my framing, and would disagree that closing bases counts as 'undermining' America. They would probably say that America should spend its money on welfare rather than overseas bases, and that closing bases actually strengthens America in all the ways that count. Thus, they don't want to undermine America, they just want to close bases.
The Jewish conspiracy angle leaves a lot of unanswered questions. I do not actually accept the reasoning that Jewish people want to undermine the UK any more than I accept the reasoning that the American left wants to undermine America. I think that the thing you most need to justify when making that argument is the premise. Any time anyone posits a Jewish conspiracy, they never explain the alleged motivation of the alleged Jewish conspiracy. I believe that the American left wants to close military bases, because it makes sense according to their goals (spend less on military and more on welfare). I do not believe that British Jews want to 'undermine the UK’s geopolitical power when the nation is weak and vulnerable' out of sheer evil Jewishness, because that is not a real motivation.
I think if someone went around suggesting that the Vegans were the masterminds behind every Islamic terrorist plot, they would be banned in short order. The problem with the Jewposting isn't the form, it's the sheer nonsense of it. You can't post crazy gibberish and expect to be taken seriously.
Sunshine
1mo ago
This isn't a simple reason at all. You're supposing the existence of an international Jewish conspiracy to explain an odd policy decision. You're raising more questions than you're answering. That's the opposite of an explanation!
Sunshine
1mo ago
The reason this is being done so crudely is because every less-crude attempt made in the past was stopped. If you let them slow you down they'll keep finding reasons to do it until the whole thing grinds to a halt.
There was a limited supply of veto power and it has been squandered on less important issues. Don't blame the bartender for cutting you off, blame yourself for drinking too much.
Elon Musk already took a lot of the available heat. It's an even tougher sell now than it was a few years ago for an advertiser to burn their own revenues to deliberately antagonize both Facebook and the incoming President of the United States out of sheer ideological bloody-mindedness. Doing it now, when you've already seen that the last tech billionaire who faced a boycott like that did not cave in like he was supposed to and instead joined the other team whole-heartedly and is now poised to enact whatever revenge he has in mind using whatever influence he's curried over the last election, would not be a safe investment.
Sunshine
2mo ago
No, what this argument actually boils down to is 'if you're concerned about tyranny then you should not trust the government when they say that extreme measures must be taken because of the ongoing Threat to Democracy posed by the opposition leader.'
I am not afraid of the government being too weak, I am afraid of it being too strong. True Threats to Democracy almost always come from inside the house.
Sunshine
2mo ago
Why should I care more about the fake electors thing than about the practice of rule-by-executive-order, or the fact that the military keeps killing people even though the US hasn't formally declared war since 1942, or gerrymandering, or any of the other sketchy government power shenanigans that have actually succeeded over the past few decades?
It seems to me that there are a lot of actual threats to democracy, and this does not even come close to topping the list.
I really, genuinely, sincerely, in my heart of hearts, don't think 1/6 was that big of a deal. The demand for a Threat to Democracy outstripped supply, so the media spent 4 years trying desperately to turn a molehill into a mountain. The fact that it apparently didn't move the needle at all during the 2024 elections just goes to show that most Americans also don't think that 1/6 was that big of a deal.
The key fact about the 1/6 riot is that there was never any path by which they could have actually usurped the government. The US Government does not operate on Capture the Flag rules. It doesn't matter how many people trespass in which government buildings. Taking over a government usually requires cooperation from an armed force like the military, police, a paramilitary militia, an intelligence agency, or something along those lines. 1/6 had some unarmed old people milling about in the capital. An actual Threat to Democracy must have the ability to actually Threaten the Democracy, as in there must be some chance of damaging it in some way. 1/6 was just one of a series of riots in that time period, and not a particularly damaging or violent one at that. The fact that it was targeted at elected officials instead of random innocent civilians makes it, if anything, less morally fraught than many of the other riots that took place in the preceding months.
Sunshine
2mo ago
Nobody is afraid that they "missed the fascism", except possibly you because your brain is fried from huffing too much politics. Any "fascism" that is so subtle that you can fail to notice it while it's taking place in the cultural center of the world in the midst of a global political media circus (i.e. the election) is no fascism at all.
Fascism is not a mystic totem which once invoked will trigger Armageddon. If it's too subtle to notice, it's also too subtle to affect anyone's life in any way. If it's too subtle to affect anyone's life then it doesn't matter, no matter what scary words you use to describe it. If we can live in a fascist dystopia without noticing or being affected by it, then maybe the problem is that the word "fascist" is being used too lightly.
I dislike the way we treat mental disorders as if they work like bacteria or viruses. We even call them "mental illnesses." Strep throat presents in similar ways every time it appears because it's caused by a particular group of bacteria with particular traits. Autism isn't a species of microorganism, it's a cluster of behaviours observed in some humans. We can observe that many different people exhibit some or all of these behaviours without acting like they're all infected with a particular disease.
To continue the analogy: autism isn't the common cold, it's the act of coughing.
Sunshine
4mo ago
Demanding more effort is not the same thing as demanding less rage. This post is neither rage-posting nor outgroup-bashing, but you're giving it a mod warning for not "providing more than a Twitter link." What's wrong with a Twitter link? Why should you require more effort from top-level posts? Have you considered the possibility that this is actually an appropriate amount of effort relative to the subject matter? Have you considered the possibility that adding more effort to this Twitter link might not actually increase the quality of the post, because more effort is not called for in this particular situation?
Sunshine
4mo ago
As a regular Motte reader and occasional poster, I think your standards for posts are too overbearing. The Motte's biggest problem is the lack of content, and the reason for the lack of content is that the mod team is strangling it. The Motte needs more lower-quality posts, not fewer higher-quality posts.
You're not going to run out of space.
Sunshine
4mo ago
I thought the stock market would go down if Trump won, so I was holding my money to buy stock after the election. Now the market is at an all-time high, so I'd feel dumb to buy now. Serves me right for listening to the media, I guess.
My existing portfolio is doing great, though.
Sunshine
4mo ago
Did the Gillette ad show that? My understanding was that it triggered a massive backlash and actually lowered sales for about 6 months after the ad aired.
Sunshine
5mo ago
It boggles my mind that the United States, the most powerful country on Earth, is unable to issue all of its citizens with photo IDs.
Sunshine
5mo ago
My point is just that I don't think intelligence and counterintelligence are all they're cracked up to be. The Soviets won the intelligence war, but their little victory was swept away by the uncaring maelstrom of socioeconomic forces, along with their country and their ideology. They should have spent less on guns and more on butter.
Sunshine
5mo ago
We can all name issues present in society, but is Kamala Harris going to solve any of them? Is she even going to try?
She strikes me as a political opportunist who wants to be President just so she can be President. Does she even have any policy proposals? You would think that, if she did, she would be putting them into action right now as the de-facto leader of the Democratic party.
Sunshine
5mo ago
I wouldn't be surprised if Iran was just after the photo op. For all we know, the point of firing the missiles could be just to remind the world that they're capable of making trouble if anyone pushes them too far. The world duly reminded, the Iranians don't have to fear looking weak as they make the strategically sound decision to back off, regroup, and let their allies take the L.
Canada is literally bigger than the US, so yes it would be the largest state in the union. It would also be the most populous, edging out California. And yes, it would definitely guarantee that the Democrats win every election for quite a while. Canada's major parties are a centrist party, a left-wing party, a radical left wing party, and a French separatist party. Also universal healthcare has supermajority support from both the left and right, so expect that to become the single most important issue facing the government.
Frankly, it would make more sense to turn Canada into five states than one big one (BC, Ontario, Quebec, Western, and Maritimes).
More options
Context Copy link