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This seems like a weird way of slicing and dicing the numbers.
No president since HW Bush has had military experience. That's Clinton, Dubya, Obama, Trump, Biden, a combined 36 year run of non-soldiers. Where after Truman left office, every president from Ike to Bush I served, mostly in WWII.
The relevant metric? The USA won WWII, And elected WWII veterans repeatedly. But the USA never elected a Vietnam veteran, despite electing four men who were of age to serve in Vietnam but did not, and despite three decorated Vietnam veterans obtaining major party nominations.
By the same logic, it's likely that GWOT service will not be the golden ticket to the oval office.
I don't think it is winning that matters as much as having a worthy opponent. Charles De Gaulle was pretty popular in France, despite the French getting their buts kicked during the war. Hitler took over Germany after experience in WWI where Germany lost.
War is one of the few areas where governments are stressed with competitive pressures. But not all wars are equal. Trying to stomp out an insurgency is different from fighting another world superpower.
A war between Russia and most of Europe would forge a military class in Europe with an ability to get things done. The current managerial and bureaucratic class that runs Europe at a lazy slow clip would end up being replaced or ousted over time, whatever rules of competition they setup in hopes of giving themselves an advantage they'd still get beaten. The average views of the people in charge would drift much closer to the views of veterans and officers from the conflict.
On the margin Europe is generally soft and a little socialist. I think they'd drift more towards hard and fascist. How much they'd drift in that direction would depend on the level of their involvement.
The costs of doing this seem horrific, I'd hope Europe and Russia don't get into a major war. It just seems predictable where things might go if they do, and it seems like the current political class would be bringing about their own future defeats.
Its important to remember that governments throughout history have always been controlled by those who wage war for them. Rome gave land and power to their soldiers. The feudal era was marked with feudal armies raised by lords and reliant on highly trained knights. The era of nationalism has been marked with a shift towards democracy and rule by the people, since it is large armies of men that won conflicts.
The World Wars and the wars since have been marked with the need for massive logistics and manufacturing capabilities. The Political-Managerial-Class has been in charge of and control of those resources, and they've taken political power. There is still a need for a tip of the spear that applies the weight of manufacturing upon the enemy. That tip of the spear has always been ground down into a fine meat paste for the last century. But the men willing to create that meat paste, and order around the unpasted meat are not a permanent class. The creation of that officer group will be what changes Europe, and the type of men that become in charge.
I'd also point out that just because someone is not a Veteran, doesn't mean they aren't representing those interests. Bad-mouthing veterans has been political suicide for as long as I have been alive. I think the Democrats have tended to rely more on military experience in their politicians just so they can field off accusations of "you hate veterans".
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It's certainly not a golden ticket. @cjet79's original claim is that veterans from a hypothetical European-Russian conflict will have outsized political influence in their respective governments. I'm just saying I think we've seen that trend in the US where the political class has a much larger fraction of veterans than ordinary citizens.
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W did have military experience, however one might slice the practicalities of his time in the Texas Air National Guard. You're probably thinking of combat experience here.
No, I'm not thinking of combat experience. Combat would limit us, in that post WWII sample to HW, JFK, and maybe Dwight in the Philippines but I don't remember off hand.
Perhaps we can split the difference and say service in war.
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I think you have to narrow "military" there to "combat": Dubya served in the National Guard but never deployed to Vietnam, which was a source of plenty of drama circa 2004.
I'm not forgetting that drama, I'm taking a position on it: Dubya joined the FANG to avoid service in Vietnam, had a terrible attendance record during his time there, and both his national victories were over decorated Vietnam combat veterans. He's much closer to having not served than having served.
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