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If I am Europe and I had the option to side with China to kill and humiliate a large number of American Red Tribers during or post Trump during a conflict, I can't imagine why I would'nt take that opportunity at this point.
...because it's psycopathic?
Any more so than siding with the US in its clash with China? Why? It would be a mutually engaged conflict from a third party POV one side is just as valid as the other all things being equal.
Yes, because siding with the US in such a situation is unlikely to involve killing millions of Chinese civilians for the sake of some weird revenge fantasy.
It would shock me if more than 1000 American civilians died in the whole Taiwan war. I am virtually certain more Chinese civilians will die in that war than Americans.
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That would be the exact reason except it would be China they are trying to humiliate in this case. No one thinks the US would be fighting for Taiwan for any real existential or even significant material gain. The war would be to humble one side and maintain/shatter US hegemony. I made the distinction of parties because one party being in charge of the hegemony is now probably detrimental to Europe in the short and long term.
Edit: Is it taboo to quote a deleted comment?
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The old, "side with the fascist enthnostate because the liberal democracy's leader told you to stop putting meme-makers in prison" move!
Unfortunately it is not implausible given the authoritarian direction Europe has gone down.
I don't see how Europe benefits anymore from a MAGA American hegemony than it does from the true Multipolar world that would immediately develop post a crushing US military defeat. I am not trying to be dense here and am open to arguments why I am wrong about this.
Well, there will be no crushing US military defeat. Certainly not one orchestrated in any way by Europe.
And if there were one by China you'd be under the boot of an Fascist ethnostate. As opposed to "checks notes" "MAGA American Hegemony" aka, us telling you to let people post memes on the internet and to cool it with sentencing the victims of rape to longer sentences than the rapists got for calling the rapists rapists.
You are acting like the current American regime is some sort of illiberal order with aspirations of world domination, whereas in reality they are politely suggesting you follow the normal postwar rules about free speech and asking you to build functional militaries to check the local aggressive dictatorships.
China is uninterested in conquering Europe and has no interested in ruling over Europeans, so why should they care?
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I find it hard to believe the US being routed in the South China Sea would lead to Chinese world domination. I don't even think China is much interested in that even if it were possible. The end of the US Hegemony does not entail China ruling the world.
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The reason to not kill large numbers of people is because killing is evil. It's not because of some flimsy model of geopolitical relations.
But, to answer your question, no one knows what would happen if China handed the US a crushing military defeat with Europe stepping on its neck as well. Would Europe starve? Would they become a client of China? Would there be nuclear war? Or would the continent thrive as, absent their American daddy, they were forced to become serious countries again. Your guess is good as anyone's.
I am of the very strong opinion that before the Taiwan war even happens, both countries' nuclear red lines are going to be made clear and understood by both sides before it kicks off. That might just be hopium but I think it tracks.
I think its likely. I'm of the opinion that, if China takes Taiwan, it will happen without firing a shot. Every year they grow stronger relative to the US, so there's no reason for China to rush things.
China's territorial motivations have to trade against not just its strategic ability, but also the political and social capital necessary to commit to and succeed. And while every country is facing the demographic cliff, China is one of the few that's getting squeezed between the cliff face and the rock of 'our demographic numbers are near-certainly fake and we don't know how fake, too'.
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I obviously see Europeans more aligned with China — both believe in authoritarianism. Seems to me the biggest difference is China isn’t as weak as Europe.
I would wager that EU defense spending is about to increase dramatically. A Moneys Paw situation if there ever was one.
Trump: Hey European countries, you're not serious countries, you're weak, and you have no sovereignty. Your politics are unserious and your leaders make incredibly stupid decisions, like shutting down nuclear power plants while you're desperate for gas to supply electricity even as I warned you and you laughed at me. I want you to have real militaries which can project power so that you're an actual ally who can contribute instead of a liability who in recent years has cost the US a large amount of money and equipment sating your fears against Russia over Ukraine which is an almost entirely European interest. And, on top of that, you have been increasingly violating the shared values we thought we both used to have together.
Europe: WOW! How dare you! We're going to show you, we're going to dramatically increase military spending!
What was the cursed wish?
I highly suspect that increased military spending is not going to go into support of US interests. I suspect, as I am postulating, that it will be the exact opposite that occurs.
a strong Europe could actually be a useful ally which could contribute to a meaningful alliance to counterbalance power in the world
it appears Trump is making them decide: Do you want to be the unserious and weak 70 year old woman tut-tutting and lecturing people about "our democracy" in which case you will do what the US demands of you and thank them for it or do you reorganize into a serious and strong group with real sovereignty?
And of course, Europe hates him for it like the son who hates his Dad for telling him to get a job or get out. IMO, none of this is going to happen. The moment the US leaves, NATO will dissolve and soon afterwards the EU would dissolves as no one is there to keep the Euros from bickering with each other.
although fair enough, it would be a cursed wish to hope for strong allies when instead they turn into strong enemies
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'Hey friends, I just told you I'd join China to kill and humiliate you! I'm open to arguments about why I'm wrong.'
Uh, no, I think I''ll just be happy to return the favor by at least identifying you as not a friend nor an ally and, in fact, something far closer to an enemy with which I share little.
I wouldn't as I am an American but if I were European? Yeah I would be looking to end the US Hegemony right about now. A Multipolar would with China as the other poll would start to look a lot more stable
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Yes. We Red-Tribers understand this quite well, which is why things have gone the way they have gone. Common knowledge of the nature of the Red/Blue conflict is what has driven the Culture War escalation spiral, and is what will continue to drive it in the future until that spiral exceeds the tensile strength of our existing social arrangement.
I mean, guess in my view, the American Red Tribe vs The American Blue Tribe + The entire rest of the world is not a winnable fight. Its such an obvious loser that I don't know why anyone would maneuver themselves in such a manner. Trump is burning every bridge and seems unlikely given his actions thus far to leave much of his cult of personality intact for whoever inherits the mess after his last term.
Whether it's winnable is questionable, but more questionable is the basic polarity of the situation.
The American Red Tribe vs Blue Tribe + the entire rest of the world was the situation we were previously converging on. Red tribe cooperated with and funded the creation of an international ideological alliance controlled and directed almost entirely by Blue Tribe, which directed American tax money in vast amounts to Blue Tribe projects designed more or less explicitly to increase Blue Tribe power both at home and abroad.
We are now attempting to dismantle that system. If we succeed, the result will not be "Red Tribe vs Blue Tribe + the entire rest of the world", because the international ideological alliance will break up and die. Then it will simply be Red Tribe vs Blue Tribe. You've already stated your personal view of the stakes of that conflict; we'll see how it goes in practice.
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How are the American Blue Tribes supposed to get the Europeans, let alone the entire rest of the world on their side against the American Red Tribe?
Even when the Europeans + The American Blue Tribe were also + American Red Tribe on one side in the early Ukraine War, they couldn't get the rest of the world on their side.
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