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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   1700 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for November 10, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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What chance would you assign to the following events?

  1. Donald Trump deports more than 25% of the total illegal alien population in the United States as of November 2024 by January 2029. This does not include border pushbacks.

  2. Legal immigration into the US falls by more than 30% by 2030.

  3. A major Western European country deports more than 40% of its non-native population (citizen and non-citizen) by 2055.

  4. Canada deports more than 25% of the legal immigrants who arrived under the Trudeau government between 2015 and 2025 by 2040.

  5. The governing party of a Western European country (including settler colonies like NZ, Aus, Canada and the US), openly embraces nativism (“…should remain a majority, forever”) by 2035.

I think focusing on deportation number is missing the point. AFAIK, all realistic plans include most illegal aliens leaving on their own, because driving your own car with your own stuff back is better than being snatched up at random with whatever you have on you at the time and dumped back in Mexico or wherever.

My assumption is that these are all extremely low. <10%.

When was the last time a western democracy executed any meaningful deportations? These are huge percentages of people to ship back, and the propaganda machine already has been preparing bullshit about how it's impossible for 2 months (much like the wall, but I digress).

Operation wetback enacted a meaningful amount of deportations in the fifties.

For 5, are we including South Africa? I can see opposition to continuing Central African immigration leading to a nativist governing majority much more easily than for other western-ish countries.

Trump said that he wants to staple green cards to diplomas, so #2 isn't even being promised.

if you stop the bullshit that is chain migration you can get there easily

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