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naraburns  nihil supernum  18d ago (text post)   26896 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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New York Times needle now predicting Trump to win the popular vote by 0.3%. That would be absolutely startling.

There goes my 'sure thing' Polymarket bet. But at least I'll make enough in crypto to be up overall.

Do you mean you made a crypto bet, or you just expect crypto markets to respond positively to a Trump win?

https://coin360.com/

It's a sea of green out here. Trump promised to help out with crypto (even launched his own shitty memecoin). Elon's influence should also be helpful here.

And stocks are green too, especially NVIDIA. Something underappreciated IMO is that someone got the Aschenbrenner Thesis into his hands and converted him, he was talking about how the US needs all this power for AI - he seemed enthusiastic about it. Elon and Thiel should definitely be in the inner circle, the e/acc Silicon Valley echelon is advancing at great speed.

imo btc and others will puke and retrace, but real lift off comes soon after that

They already are responding positively to a Trump win. Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high.

The expectation is Trump will enact pro-crypto policy. I think the probability of this happening is very low though.

Is there a reason, or just enthusiasm? Were the Dems considered more likely to increase taxes and regulation on crypto?

Absolutely. Republicans can be anti-crypto in power and Democrats can be pro-crypto in power, but it's still certainly a polarized issue.

I'm personally waiting for the postmortem gender breakdown between men 18-30 and women 18-30. While I wouldn't have voted for Trump for aesthetic reasons if I had a vote I also wouldn't have voted for Kamala for running a campaign that basically saw men only through the lens of what effects (positive or negative) they have on women.

You being unbanned on Election Day is really incredible timing. Welcome back.

Thank you, it's good to return to the old stomping grounds. You have to be a lot more obtuse on /r/SSC ...

It was trading at 25% ish before the election. Kamala's lead in Nate Silver's polling average was 1%, well within a single standard deviation.

Surely they just haven't yet baked California sufficiently into the pie... surely?

They absolutely have. It's a predictive model rather than just tallying up confirmed votes. In fact, rather to my chagrin, Nate Silver told his subscribers-only chat to just "watch the Needle" because it's got much better granularity than his own Silver Bulletin model for interpreting county results.

All I'm hearing in my head is 2020's talking heads lectures on the "red mirage." If it's not that, then it's just... 2016 all over again.

I'm still feeling very Nybbler-y about it all, myself.

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