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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   28010 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 7, 2024

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but also because this is the apparent calibre of American leadership. Even if we assume that Elite Human Capital or the Deep State is running the show, why can't these people find a decent media spokesperson? How hard can it be?

That US is led by midwits has been evident since 2001 at least. The war on terror was a grotesque miscalculation-the neocon dreams of seven countries in five years delusions, Iraq a fumble, the war was a strategic victory for Al-Qaeda because it led to a decrease in US power and influence, loss of trust in the USG. Then you had the Arab Spring, which succeeded only in ruining things and not increasing US power either. Let's not even speak of Afghanistan. Then we got to Ukraine. Chinese have made no secret they're not going to be color-revolutioned, yet Americans thought driving China and Russia closely together was just the thing.

Putin clearly wanted in, was cooperative post 9/11, asked to be considered for membership and seeing as NATO has at times contained wholly authoritarian regimes like Turkey's various juntas , Portugal (somehow a founding member) etc, there were no obvious reasons why not to admit them. This would've gone some way to containing China.

That China would become extremely powerful was obvious since early 1900, when they were found to be not intellectually deficient, just merely medieval.

Emanuel Todd, the anthropologist famous for calling Soviet decline back when people thought USSR was eternal has an some interesting remarks in an interview about his upcoming book. Translation here.

Putin clearly wanted in, was cooperative post 9/11, asked to be considered for membership

Am I misremembering or was that a single sarcastic quip by Putin and not sincerely asking for NATO membership?

No, it wasn't a sarcastic quip.

From memory, Russia never put in a formal application to NATO, but it wasn't just a sarcastic quip. You could probably debate the sincerity of the interest of Russia joining NATO, but it definitely wasn't an prima facie sarcastic suggestion.

You have to remember the geopolitical context at the time. Russia was a newly "liberal" country after the collapse of the Soviet Union only a decade ago, and while significant tension did still exist between USA and Russia (particularly relating to NATO's involvement in the Yugoslav Wars), relations between the two was much more optimistic that is now or has been recently.

9/11 presented a reasonable opportunity for a genuine, renewed, positive relationship between Russia and USA. One thing that Russia and the US have in common (even to this day) is dealing with Islamism/Islamic terrorism, a threat to both nations. Russia had been, and has been, constantly dealing with Islamic terrorism within its own borders long before 9/11, and could reasonable see opportunity for US cooperation and support post 9/11 (it actually did happen to a limited extent under much worse circumstances dealing with ISIS).

Fucking up the opportunity to normalise relations with Russia and bring them into the greater west and instead driving them into the arms of China was the second worst foreign policy mistake the USA ever made in my opinion, matched only by donating the country's productive economy and manufacturing base to China.

You’re not alone in thinking this, but it’s probably wrong. Exhibit A being of course Obama’s attempt at a “reset”

Putin clearly wanted in, was cooperative post 9/11, asked to be considered for membership and seeing as NATO has at times contained wholly authoritarian regimes like Turkey's various juntas , Portugal (somehow a founding member) etc, there were no obvious reasons why not to admit them.

It wasn't about them being authoritarian, it was about them being Russia. I doubt Poland has the same emotions about Portugal

Then you had the Arab Spring, which succeeded only in ruining things and not increasing US power either.

I concur on a lot of the aforementioned U.S. foreign policy being a failure but think this veers into a Chomyskite type dismissal of anyone’s agency other than the U.S. government’s. The Arab Spring in Egypt and Syria began organically, as corrupt authoritarian states did not yet have a handle on the virality of social media. The U.S. government certainly picked sides, but I think it is unfair to treat this as the type of own-goal attempting the regime change and democratization on of Iraq was.

I think the aftermath is a complete loss. The Arab Spring wasn’t about democracy, it was an Islamist movement based in getting rid of the old guard who were largely secular socialists and nationalists. Our ignorance of the region and what these despots were holding back is obvious now and anyone familiar with the region and the history of could have easily told you that weakening these secular regimes is good optics and terrible policy. And where these despots were weakened or overthrown, we now have either outright Islamist governments or powerful military junta’s threatening jihad at either the secular government or the designated target of the Jews. But then again our midwits are not exactly scholars and were taken in by the optics that happened to coincide with their interpretation of the neo-liberal right side of history narrative that holds that humans all naturally are alike and think exactly like post-modern liberals and want nothing other than to join the Rules Based International Order and drink Starbucks and send their daughters to humanities programs at Evergreen.

To be blunt, my take on politics both domestic and international is Real Politick. You are a fool if you’re trying to govern based on delusions and fantasies about how you wish the world works. And you are a double fool if you’re misunderstanding human nature. We are not fundamentally good people, no one is. And pretending that if we just ignore reality hard enough we can wish ourselves to Utopia is just going to set everything back.

The Arab Spring wasn’t about democracy, it was an Islamist movement based in getting rid of the old guard who were largely secular socialists and nationalists.

Maybe democracy in the Middle East will naturally tend towards some form of Islamism and we just have to get over it?

Imagine if early Western democracy was under the watch of secular aliens searching for any sign of deviation from laicite. It'd never get off the ground because it'd permanently be at odds with the desires of the population.

Even granting that Islam is exceptional that's probably an argument for some role instead of continually trying to quash it. That may just radicalize Islamist parties into jihadis.

Yes, the midwit position of "let them have democracy and they'll converge on modern liberalism on some reasonable timescale" is ludicrous. But maybe they should just have democracy , damn what happens to the gays and women.

If any of these nations were at risk of spawning some Lee Kuan Yew-esque illiberal reformer or a liberal autocracy that could set the stage for liberal democracy it'd be one thing. But Egypt was corrupt and autocratic before Morsi and corrupt and autocratic after and all of this will almost certainly happen again.

or the designated target of the Jews

Yeah, you got me there. Democratic Islamic governments will have more issues with Israel.

Imagine if early Western democracy was under the watch of secular aliens searching for any sign of deviation from laicite. It'd never get off the ground because it'd permanently be at odds with the desires of the population.

Early western countries did not generally vote for confessionalist policies.

I have accepted that Islamist ideology is the natural bent of Islamic countries. What I do not accept is that we should allow a major portion f the globe to destabilize so they can have democracy. The results of supporting these popular movements is basically that the region is much more unstable, much less secular, and more likely to persecute women and minorities in their own countries and launch attacks against Israel. The result of democracy in Iraq was a radical Shia regime, not a Jeffersonian democracy.

I think any sane alien would be doing much like what I’m proposing. If the results of our democracy were constant attacks on other planets, murder of anyone who didn’t match our ideology, and destabilizing the rest of the galaxy, these aliens would not be in favor of us having a democracy. They’d much rather we were stable, peaceful, and under a dictatorship than that we’re attacking Alpha Centauri, killing Swedes and killing anyone who isn’t fitting in with religion.

The results of supporting these popular movements is basically that the region is much more unstable

The same region that erupted into flames due to the clear, unresolved dissatisfaction of its people not too long ago under the regimes you support?

Yeah, it's pretty unstable.

The result of democracy in Iraq was a radical Shia regime, not a Jeffersonian democracy.

I recall it was a bit bumpy after the French Revolution.

and more likely to persecute women and minorities in their own countries

As opposed to the autocrats who don't persecute people? I suppose wrecking half your country like Assad or shooting unarmed protestors like Sisi and the general jailing of dissidents and other features of autocratic regimes are okay so long as it doesn't have disparate impact on women?

And it's not like these places are good for things like sexual minorities or apostates either way.

This is what I mean; liberals lined up behind anti-Islamist forces but those forces don't ever seem to give way to liberalism or democracy. You just get more corrupt autocracy with seething dissatisfaction. You're not even protecting the groups you're talking about.

I’ll disagree with you on the point that the Arab Spring itself wasn’t about democracy. But as it was decentralized, it could only create a vacuum, and that then let groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, that had organization and structure, fill that vacuum.

I’ll disagree with you on the point that the Arab Spring itself wasn’t about democracy.

It was about poverty. Higher grain prices meant that for the first time a lot of people didn't had food security.

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